The original statistics comes from SEC: when options expire, 85% of options (both call and put options) are worthless. This is a fact. I don't argue with any fact. My argument is: this statistics has ignored one critical factor: When options are in the money, what are average winning size? For example, if you paid 100 dollar (premium) for 10 options, 9 of them are worthless (according to SEC statistics), only one of them is in the money, does this mean you lost 90% of your premium? Not necessarily. Maybe the winning option is worth 200 dollars. As a result, you actually double your money. That's why I say SEC statistics is misleading. In addition, it makes sense to early-exercise some deep in-the-money put options. Of course, my post is not trying to encourage you to buy options. I rarely buy or sell options. But I used to work in this industry and I have three versions of John Hull's book (options, futures and other derivatives) in my bookshelf.
