imho, quite likely it will be in 4.5% neighborhood within 6 months if more news abut slowing economy, 10yr yield slided from 5.2% in early July to 4.8% now, history has been that Fed always overshot in tighting, there have been no case that it pauses and then re-raise rate, ---------- I think the risk for deflation is smaller than other, deflation has been labelled as the most evil of all, and people have come to understand how to prevent that, (by over-flooding the market with liquidity, even if only for short term). so maybe the bond market is hoping for the best scenario. Not so terribly high inflation, somewhat suffered buying power and USD, combined together to buy some time, until some magic solutions come alone...
