今日搜索文章看到一个叫哈伯的文章: "大市盘点" (Investment Commentary), 文章见如下连接: CANADIAN STOCK INDEX: Still in strong and solid shape, BUT will break any day now the blue trend line to the downside. We will get maybe some more rally days (extent and duration unclear right now) followed by a decline. Possible target of the decline is the 10,000 area (estimate only!). Ambitious shorts can try to place positions on a break of the blue trend line to the downside.
http://www.hable.ca/downloads/Commentary.pdf
阅后总体印象是作者对未来股市的走势是严重看熊. 摘要如下:
1. 在经历四年的牛市后,全球股市将在来年有大幅下跌行情而在2007年步入熊市("Expect a much choppier stock market in the years ahead with the emphasis on short-term trades","Expect now a serious decline into autumn, and a cyclical bear market into 2007")
2.VIX - Volatility Index形成一个下降契型"descending wedge",作者预测是向上突破,向上突破意味股市看熊.(VIX越大,股市月汹)
3. GOLD正孕育着一个向上突破的对称三角形,未来看涨
4.NASDAQ和半导体板将下跌
5.TSX将下跌,具体的评价是:
作者的GENERAL GUIDELINES TO TRADERS AND INVESTORS
Expect now a serious decline into autumn, and a cyclical bear market into 2007. It is possible that we still get some additional rally days in the coming1 - 2 week (till mid-September), but the extent of it and the timing is fully unclear. More decline will follow.
Mind your risk management, as the financial markets will - as always - do anything to empty the pockets of the largest possible number of traders and investors.
Don't enter shorts prematurely, only short once the conditions as set out below in the trade recommendations are fulfilled. Just because we assume a medium term decline, it is prohibitive to bank one's farm on it. Respect the conditions for new trades. Shorts are much riskier than longs due to the higher volatility. Only short securities with high volume (well above 750,000 shares traded daily).
A warning to the current correction: don't short biotech, small caps, pharma, utilities, commodities and energy. These sectors have an inherent long-term upward bias, and therefore have a higher chance to cause losses to shorts. On the other side, these sectors are not useful for counter cyclical long positions in a declining market, because they usually decline in sympathy with the general market, although not as strong.
作者提出的建议:MODEL PORTFOLIO
75% cash and 25% for trading in the markets
OR
25% cash, 50% in the below mentioned long-term investments and 25% for trading in the markets.
Short-term trade recommendations see below. Model portfolio will be modified in autumn 2006.
SHORT-TERM TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS (new as of 3-Sep-2006
Enter shorts now as follows:
Divide your capital 50% - 50% on DAX and NDX futures and enter shorts in both indexes on a break of the blue trend line to the downside. Stop loss on breakeven or 2% counter movement of the underlying. Be prepared for whipsaw and a choppy / volatile trading environment.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
As long-term investments the following can be recommended:
- Turkish government bonds denominated in Euro (buy only below par, buy the shorter end and hold till maturity)
- Gold (GLD)
- Japanese stock index certificates
- Venture capital and private equity funds
- Biotechnology funds (only those that are actively managed!)
- Oil related securities
- Individual real estate projects (no REITS please).
"Long-term" investment means holding periods of 5 years or longer.
This list will be updated again when it will be clear what the time after autumn 2006 will bring.
1.坚定自己的PORTFOLIO信念.
2宁可信其有,不可信其无,在战略上要有所准备.在适当时候对PORTFOLIO做防御性调整;
3不要被作者的悲观预测所吓倒.预测不一定代表现实.目前,TSX仍在上升通道.
4但目前要高度保持警惕.TSX上周收12145.具趋势底线在12000只有145点之遥,仍不是十分牢靠,可以说,一天就可轻易跌破.200天均线是11700,也只有400点的距离,若来一个五月那样的调整,也只需两天就可转熊.
5.黄金市场原则是:跟随趋势走.若趋势改变,则响应的投资策略就要改变(转熊或看牛)
个人应对措施(策略):
1. 主力(CORE)部分不变;
2.中间部队做防御性调整(RISK从12.75下降到5.5和7.5);
3.先头部队放在资源黄金板,这些板块未来预计看涨.
