2007年宏观展望- 笔记 (Notes on the outlook of 2007)

 

  • Inflation: low, due to globalization, new tech and market reforms
  • Liquidity: ample. Excess global savings will hold down bond yields and Fed will cut interest rate
  • Debt: Debt Supercycle in not near end.
  • Equity: beneficiary. Room for multiples to rise. Valuations are reasonable. Best opportunities might be in emerging markets and US.
    • US equity: Prefer beneficiary of the capital spending cycle (instead of consumer spending). Overweight energy.
  • Bond: not much opportunity
  • Resources: bullish case for energy prices. Base metal prices are vulnerable. Gold prices are likely to fluctuate.
  • Currency: US dollars has downside risks. Competitive devaluation- a key theme.
  • US economy: mid-cycle slowdown. Housing downturn has further to run. Employment will grow. Corporate finance- strong.
  • Risks: geopolitics & an end to yen carry trade. Deflationary risks would result liquidity being dumped into the system, fueling higher asset prices.


登录后才可评论.
Logo

Looks like your ad blocker is on.

×

We rely on ads to keep creating quality content for you to enjoy for free.

Please support our site by disabling your ad blocker.

Continue without supporting us

Choose your Ad Blocker

  • Adblock Plus
  • Adblock
  • Adguard
  • Ad Remover
  • Brave
  • Ghostery
  • uBlock Origin
  • uBlock
  • UltraBlock
  • Other
  1. In the extension bar, click the AdBlock Plus icon
  2. Click the large blue toggle for this website
  3. Click refresh
  1. In the extension bar, click the AdBlock icon
  2. Under "Pause on this site" click "Always"
  1. In the extension bar, click on the Adguard icon
  2. Click on the large green toggle for this website
  1. In the extension bar, click on the Ad Remover icon
  2. Click "Disable on This Website"
  1. In the extension bar, click on the orange lion icon
  2. Click the toggle on the top right, shifting from "Up" to "Down"
  1. In the extension bar, click on the Ghostery icon
  2. Click the "Anti-Tracking" shield so it says "Off"
  3. Click the "Ad-Blocking" stop sign so it says "Off"
  4. Refresh the page
  1. In the extension bar, click on the uBlock Origin icon
  2. Click on the big, blue power button
  3. Refresh the page
  1. In the extension bar, click on the uBlock icon
  2. Click on the big, blue power button
  3. Refresh the page
  1. In the extension bar, click on the UltraBlock icon
  2. Check the "Disable UltraBlock" checkbox
  1. Please disable your Ad Blocker
  2. Disable any DNS blocking tools such as AdGuardDNS or NextDNS

If the prompt is still appearing, please disable any tools or services you are using that block internet ads (e.g. DNS Servers).

Logo