Ebay曾经是人见人爱的美少女，曾几何时多少仁人志士都想抱她入怀。 现在是美少妇，少了几分冲动却多了几分恬静。
Ebay是互联网中少有的干什莫都成功的公司。他在围绕他的主业auction上成功拓展到网上支付paypal和网络社区通信skype. 这三项业务都很有粘性，靠口嘴相传而红遍世界，运销成本低，而且增加的客户马上就可以转化为钱袋。
首先看auction业务，已经成为世界霸主，旁人难以撼动。有不少公司如amazon,yahoo都曾尝试过，但都不幸无功而返。Ebay 成功的把auction业务打造成最大的自由市场商铺。要在网上开店卖东西，全世界的人想到的第一优先选择是ebay, 买家多，卖价好。如黄金地段商铺一样，越来越值钱。所以ebay 有提价的power. 而成本却在不断降低，ebay维持经营的网络硬件设备及软件和所需带宽价格都在下降。这种成本下降而又有提价能力的经营模式是投资大腕buffet最崇尚的。
再看paypal业务，也已成为世界第一，用户最多，作transaction最多。Google 推出checkout业务，让华尔街担心paypal，但是欣喜的看到，事情并不像想象的那麽坏。首先google能不能成功还是未知数。第一，用ebay的业务只能用paypal，几年的竞争下来，网上支付paypal和信用卡公司的竞争，paypal可以说是成功的。可见paypal的力量。第二，由于业界对google垄断互联网的恐惧，已经开始有相互取暖对抗google的态势，他们不希望看到google作什麽都所向披靡，这从yahoo采用paypal作为支付手段可见端倪。如果amazon,Microsoft,以及myspace等公司也效仿yahoo抵制google checkout. Ebay的paypal会坐收渔人之利。第三，就算google checkout 成功，网络支付也可以容纳两到三个品牌。 随着网络内容和网络消费的增加，paypal的钱景是光明的。同样paypal 维持经营的网络硬件设备及软件和所需带宽价格都在下降,成本也在下降。
最后看skype,这是一个很有粘性的业务，从中国最大的网络公司是做qq聊天的腾讯可见skype 这个平台的钱景也是很有想象空间的。
Ebay还在寻找新的机会，如最近收购的StubHub，ebay 试图有更多的突破。
从技术上看，ebay 有突破2004年12月以来的快两年半下降趋势线的强烈欲望。加上好的业绩报告，没有理由不看多。
关于有的人对ebay业绩的质疑，我不认为站得住脚。关于汇率，大家不是都估计美元会下跌吗？那末汇率因数还会利好。关于税，这个游戏每个公司都在玩。关于回购股票，公司回购股票说明对未来有信心，老buffet也是推崇的。
另外，ebay的pe也是大型网络股中低的。
码这多字，谢谢你的耐心看完，希提出不同看法。大家一同发财！
Ps:少妇级美女我喜欢李嘉欣。
Ebay’s current price has sparked me to consider a few things. First, am
I “correct” on eBay? My general thesis on the company is that it is an
undervalued market leader. The other question that comes to mind stems
from the first one. If I am correct, why am I
correct and the market wrong? It certainly isn’t that I possess some
supernatural intellect or clairvoyance. (Trust me.) All I know is that
I have looked at eBay’s operating performance numbers and to me the
numbers just don’t spell 30 bucks per share.
What numbers am I
referring to? Well primarily I’m referring to eBay’s free-cash-flow
(FCF) figures. Recognizing that there is a plethora of ways to arrive
at FCF and keeping in mind that exact numbers give a false sense of
preciseness, I estimate that eBay produces about $1.4 billion in FCF.
And over the last few years the company has been able to grow those
figures at extraordinary rates – by at least 40% and by as much as 90%.
Using
the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, I arrived at an estimated
intrinsic value for eBay of about $60 per share. Of course, this method
of valuation is very sensitive to the assumptions made. To come up with
my estimate, I assumed a discount rate of 9% which is my optimistic view of what the market itself will return over the next decade or so. I also assumed that eBay’s FCF growth rate would substantially decrease over
the next 10 years - falling from 25% in the early years to 12.5% in the
later years. And then I assumed a terminal growth rate of 3%, about the
historic rate of inflation. With those factors, all of which I think
are reasonable, I came up with an estimated value of $60. So the market
must be missing something…possibly. Click chart for larger view.
But
what if I’m wrong and the market is correct? Perhaps I’m missing
something. One way or another the market is saying that eBay will not
be able to perform in the future as it has in the past. The market
seems to be saying that some external (or internal) force will do one
or a combination of several things. The forces will depress eBay’s
margins or retard its sales growth or cause it to have to substantially
increase its capital expenditures.
I think one thing the market
is saying is that it doesn’t like eBay’s purchase of Skype for $2.6
billion. I agree with the market here. I like the company, I just don’t
like the price eBay paid for it. That said I doubt that any failure in
Skype will be enough to sink eBay. The market may also be saying that
the Google-monster will surely do eBay in. I doubt that pressure from
competitors like Google or Yahoo will be significant enough to
substantially hurt the company. Not in the long run anyway. And
certainly not enough to justify the $30 price tag eBay now sports.
In
my own analysis, I assume that eBay’s FCF growth falls off a proverbial
cliff and I still came up with a value that is at least twice the
current market price. In other words, I think eBay represents the
dollar being sold by Mr. Market for 50¢. Yet exploring the reasons Mr.
Market is selling eBay so cheaply are worth some thought.
