很多人都在说能源短缺。其实能源并不短缺。当然油价上涨有供求的因素。油越来越少，价格自然上升。石油照现在的速度开采不到 100 年就采光了，悲观的说法是 50 年。不过油价贵一点，多数人都可以承受，不致于引起恐慌。英国的油价现在大概是 $5.6 每加仑，是美国的近两倍，什么事也没有。油价在美国还可以上升而且大众可以继续承受得了。中国的油价和人的收入相比比美国的还要高，人们照样开车过日子。
油价贵不只是由于石油的短缺引起的。去年 11 月美国选举日的前夕，油价突然下降。选举一过，油价又升上去了，显然是有人操纵。 EXXONMOBIL 前老板 Lee Raymond 退休的 package 有天价的 $400 million 。石油界其他大大小小的老板，无数的普通雇员和投资者都从大众身上捞了不少。
石油早晚是要用完的，单从能源的角度来说，常规的能源里，除了石油还有煤。煤的储量巨大。现在探明的煤的储量可以供人类用额外的两三百年。
不用煤的原因之一是煤象石油一样，产生二氧化碳，而二氧化碳是温室气体的主要成分。其次，烧煤的污染要比油严重得多。一个MIT的教授和额说：虽然我们观察到温度上升，但是还属于正常波动范围之内，温室效应现在还没有科学的定论。世界各国努力减少实际上是防患于未然，因为如果哪一天真的确信了，补救都来不及了。
不用石油不用煤，其他的选择包括太阳能，水能，风能，核能，潮汐能，生物能等等。除了核能，其他的能量都直接或者间接来自太阳。水利发电好，但是会引起其他问题比如安全和生态。太阳能的潜力巨大，现在已经很实用了，只不过价格还是比石油高，用于家庭的话设备复杂。风能也在实用阶段，看看加州的风车就知道了。核能发电潜力其实很大，法国有 70% 左右的电力来自核能。 John McCain 正在竞选共和党总统的提名，他的主张也是核能。核能的问题是万一的泄露和由此引起的公众的偏见，所以现在在美国还是一个很小的比例。79年美国三里岛核电站和87年前苏联切尔诺贝利核电站的事故至今让人心有余悸。
中国需要什么样的技术呢？未来30年主要靠煤，更远的将来说不准，但是只要紧跟世界，不会存在 100 年后子孙们只有靠走路生存的问题。先进的能源技术肯定会扩散的。如果先进的国家不帮助我们使用新能源，我们可以烧煤，反正温室气体会飘到别处的。不过这么说不是说我们不负责任，只是说不必恐慌。照现在中国的发展速度，几十年后别的国家哭着喊着找中国要技术也有可能。 胡总在G8峰会上和有钱的大佬们讨价还价，说中国是发展中国家应该区别对待。胡总显然明白如果中国释放的CO2太多，肯定对自己和全球都不好。但是如果现在就许诺要和他们做同样让步，那我们就要吃亏，因为别人已经发达了而我们还在赶路。有个顾大家还是顾小家的问题。总之,我们不必担心地球因为我们变的太热，我们也不要不好意思讨价还价，这只是个策略。
能源问题的解决离不开人们的努力。能源工业可以看成三块：能源的获得，管理和使用。能源的获得包括石油和煤炭的开采，太阳能的开发等。俺一个朋友在石油公司，天天琢磨怎么往地下灌水，好把石油挤上来。这个灌水比俺的灌水有价值，当然他也赚了你我的钱，我灌水谁的钱都没赚，净帮人挣钱了，呵呵。
能源的利用包括提高设备的效率，比如提高汽车的 gas mileage, 降低空调的用电量，采用绿色建筑，加强保温，用 LCD 显示器，屏幕自动关闭等。夏天把空调设定提高一度，可以节约至少 7% 的电。所以节约能源人人有责。能源的管理过去被人忽视，其实很有利可图。有些电厂经营不善，效率很低，经常烧很多煤或者石油可是发不出多少电，关键时候出问题。如果 2003 年 8 月在纽约经历大停电，没法坐地铁，在大街上走痛苦不说，对病床上的病人来说简直就是灾难。现在很多金融机构，包括银行和 private equity, 把电厂买下来，整顿电厂的运行，效率提高了再转手卖出去，金融机构赚了钱，对公众也有好处。能源管理是将来最有利可图的领域之一。
俺的工作跟这些多多少少都有点关系。来说点最近的吧。最近有个零售连锁店让我们帮助他们考虑怎么改进商店的能源利用和消耗。一帮人就坐在那里brainstorm 出主意，想了半天，找出了 10 多个方案，最后选了几个写了个报告给他们。还有几个方案，嫌他们给的钱不够多，没有给他们，给网亲们报告一下哈。（这是我们工作最好玩的部分之一）
第一个，是你到了商店里，会看到有个小孩子玩的地方，比如爬梯什么的。旁边最 popular 的是一个大笼子，里面小孩在跑，跑的时候小孩的运动就带动电机发了电。这个装置还解决小孩子在商店里跟你要这要那的问题，让你自由自在地 shopping。为了鼓励小孩多发电，我们在笼子外面安了个表，指示发了多少电。旁边还设置了一个小笼子，里面有老鼠在跑。我们给这个大笼子起了个名字叫做 “ 和 MICKEY 赛跑 ” 。估计小孩们跑得满头大汗。这个主意哄了孩子，发了电，让你省心，瞧，一举三得。
第二个方案是针对灯光的。商店的照明占总用电的近一半，所以有很大节约的余地。根据人对光线的适应性，我们准备在商店门口接上一段长长的通道，入口附近通道两边的窗户比较大，之后慢慢变小。这样人刚进去觉得光线还可以，当走到商店里的时候，灯光已经比较弱了可是你并没有觉得太暗。有的商店很黑，或许会接半个mile的通道，到了商店里那灯光和点蜡烛差不多了，我们觉得这样特别吸引年轻男女顾客。
第三个方案里，我们准备在售货员的收银机上按一个摇轮，这样收银机就不用从别处要电了，将来售货员一边摇着发电一边给你收钱 。我们建议商店将来录取售货员的时候要进行体力测试，摇不到 8 个小时的不要。很多美国大胖子奔走相告，觉得这个商店既挣钱还是一个Fitness Center， 打破了头往里挤。看吧，很可能以后只收硕士以上学历的。
还有很多，先不说了吧。以后哪天看到这些玩意儿的时候，别忘了有额的功劳就行了。。。
------------Topics on Energy --------
In the recent G8 summit, the attending countries agreed to reduce the CO2 emission to 50% of 1990 level at 2050, which made Bush unhappy. The high oil price will probably stay there for a while. The sudden changes of weather makes people wonder whether the earth has some problem. The great iceberg near the South Pole has a terrifying crack. Obviously, these energy and environmental things are related.
Many people mentioned energy shortage. Actually energy is not in shortage. Of course oil price has a supply demand factor. The oil will be depleted by no more than 100 years, or 50 years with a more pessimistic estimate. However, most people can tolerate a little high oil price without panic. The British oil price is about $6/gallon and people take for granted. US probably has more room for appreciation. In China, the oil price is much more expensive compared to their income but people just drive.
High oil price is not only because of limited supply. Last year before Nov election, oil price drops suddenly, and then increased after the election. Lee Raymond, the former ExxonMobil CEO got a stunning $400 million retirement package. Other big and small bosses, even the ordinary employees and investors in the oil industry all got some from our pocket.
Oil will be depleted sooner or later. Conventional energy has coal besides oil. There is plenty of coal in the world, enough for another couple of hundred years at least.
We try to limit the use of coal because coal also produces CO2, the major part of greenhouse gases. Also, coal is a much dirtier fuel. An MIT professor says that, although we saw global temperature increases, it is still in the normal range. There is no absolute scientific conclusion confirming global warming. The effort today is more of a preventive than a solution, cos if it is correct, it is going to be too late to have a remedy.
The alternative energies includes solar, hydro, wind, nuclear, ocean wave and biomass etc. Except nuclear, all other sources are from solar. Hydro is good, but may lead to security or eco problems. Direct solar has great potential and already used widely, only that the price is still high. Wind is also OK if you have seen the big wind mills in California. Nuclear is actually a good source. France has more than 70% of power from nuclear. John McCain also favors nuclear. The biggest problem is that, if the nuclear leak happens, with a tiny probability, people will be scared. Commonly cited counter examples include 3-mile Island station and Chebenyl in former Soviet Union. Such a bias limits its use in the conservative US.
The solution for energy problem will not be available without people's effort. Energy can be put into 3 sections: energy acquisition, energy management and energy use. The acquisition including oil and coal drilling, solar collection etc. One of my friends is in a big oil company. His job is to send water to the ground and pus the oil up. This watering is more valuable than my watering on the web. Of course, he earned my money.
The energy use measures include increasing the equipment efficiency, such as the car gas mileage, AC power consumption, green building, better insulation, using LCD monitors vs. CRT, automatic shutoff. Increasing the thermoset by 1 degree can save 7% of electricity. So you and I all have a role here. Energy management used to be ignored, which is a misconception. Some power plants are not running well, wasting a lot of fossil fuels without producing much power, and may even have reliability issues. If you experienced the 2003 NYC black out, you would know the pain of walking miles on the street. By the way, that is called disaster for hospital patients. Now many financial firms such as banks or private equities buy the power plants, make them more efficient and sell them when profitable. The financial firms make money and the public benefits from that as well. So energy management is a lucrative area now and in the future.
My work is more or less related to this. Let me say some recent work. A retail chain store asked us to help them on energy utilization and consumption. So we sat there for brainstorming. After many hours, we got more than 10 ideas. We selected a few for them. There are a few others we did not release, because we feel they may not like to pay. Let me report to my web friends here. (Well, brainstorming is the more enjoyable part of our work).
The first idea is such that when you enter the store, you will see a play ground with climbing things. But the most popular one is a big cage with a lot of kids in it. When they run, the cage rotates and produces power. This cage can let you shopping freely and saves their bugging. To encourage more power generation, we put a meter outside showing the power produced. We will put another smaller cage nearby. The big cage will bear a name called: Run with Mickey Mouse. We feel that the kids will be sweating happily. See, this idea takes care of your children, save your time and money, and produces power. A stone kills three birds.
The second idea is about lighting. The lighting in a store usually consumes about half of the overall electricity, so there is large room for saving. BY taking advantage of people's adaptability to light, we suggest a long corridor in front of the entrance. The window size decreases when you enter the corridor. So when people get in, it is pretty bright. But when you reach the store, the lighting becomes very weak without being noticed. SOme stores may be too greedy. They put a half mile corridor. Finally when people reached the store, the lighting is like a candal. However, we feel this is especially attractive to young and romantic customers.
The last idea: we will install a wheel on the checkout desk, so the desk does not need external power. You would imagine that the cashier will roll while taking your payment. We would suggest the store to have a durability test at hiring. Only people who can roll 8 hours can be hired. You may say many big guys, or gilrs, spread the good news to each other. They feel this store is both a place for making money and a fitness center. It is so competitive that only people with Master's degree are likely to be admitted.
Well, dude, I don't want to disclose too much, since you are not paying me. Just remember if you see those things one day, there was my contribution as well. :-)
