每日市场点评 --- January 15, 2008

All three major indices dropped more than 2% for the day. The market opened sharply lower following disappointing results from Citi and December Retail Sales. Citi’s sub-prime writedowns were within the range of Wall Street expectation but its loan loss provision was much larger than investors had expected. The possibility of sub-prime loss spreading into other areas is clearly increasing and this can be the biggest fear on Wall Street. The retail report didn’t provide much support either. Both headline numbers and core numbers came lower than expectation. Moreover, the December number essentially brought the yearly retail increase to the lowest since 2002 and added fears of an imminent recession. The only positive news this morning is the PPI not exceeding expectation, but we have to wait to see the more relevant CPI report tomorrow. The US dollar got weakened against major currencies following weak economic reports. Gold price retreated from its record high and now is under $900 per ounce. Oil price continued to slide amid concerns of weak global economic growth ahead. Although many sub-indices were near or at their 52-week lows, the VIX index barely moved today. This looks quite puzzling to me as investors seemed not to be nervous at all even though the market continued to hit new lows. Another key technical indicator – volume – doesn’t hold well either. With down days like today, volume is heavier than up days such as yesterday. After the bell, Intel’s earning results and outlook for next quarter were quite disappointing. And this will add to the negative tone to the market tomorrow.