What was the reason for the change of the heart (rebound) of the market? It was down sharply before the openning, but ended up higher. There is no particular market moving news, and the forcast from csco actually is very bearish.. so, what happened?
It was NASDAQ, the nasdaq was down more than 20% from its high, thus entering the territory of bear market. Back to January, when all major indexes were on the verge of entering the bear market, that the market begin to recovery. and the same script was played again today, only this time, it was nasdaq. Even csco ended up higher.
Can this rebound sustained ? I have my doubt. After past 3 days, the confidence is shaking, and the pause of today may have more to do with Bear consolidate their position before they attack again.
As we have observed before, it is probably not a good time to hold any "long" position. there are more things break down than break out.. and the downside risk outweights up side..
GLD still looks good. DBA remain flat.. the future of wheat, soybeans continue to make highs, so, maybe DBA could continue its ascend. However, the agirculure sector was under profit taking lately (mon, mos, pot etc), actually, if they cannot hold at this level, we could see another leading sector blow up..
Oil is also at the point of making/breaking. today it rebound a little, we need to watch closely, if it goes lows from this level, we could attemp to short it.
