房价还得进一步跌。加息势在必行，更多人不会去借高利贷

通胀已经到了无法忍受的危险境地
房价还得进一步跌。加息势在必行，更多人贷不到款、或不会去借高利贷。

Bank of Canada surprises markets, holds firm on interest rates amid inflation risk。

By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada has abruptly halted the downward march of its key interest rate, leaving it unchanged at three per cent after four consecutive cuts.

In a major surprise to financial markets, the central bank said Tuesday the risk of inflation stoked by higher energy prices has become too great to allow continued cuts.

The move to the sidelines bucked expectations the bank would trim rates by another quarter point to try to stabilize a shaky economy.

The Canadian dollar - after a steady decline through the first few days of June - revived modestly on the news. The loonie, worth 100.70 cents US at the end of May, sagged briefly under 97 cents overnight, then jolted up to 98.03 cents after the bank\'s announcement, a gain of 0.14 cent from Monday\'s close.

Although the Bank of Canada said a risk of weak growth remains, it also said the threat of inflation has risen sharply.

In the latest Statistics Canada report, year-over-year inflation stood at 1.7 per cent in April. But the bank said headline inflation will rise above three per cent later this year if current energy prices persist, though core inflation - excluding volatile energy and food prices - is expected to stay under two per cent.

Meanwhile, the bank expects the economy, which shrank at an annualized rate of 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, will pick up later this year and accelerate in 2009.

Although the composition of U.S. growth has not been favourable for demand for Canadian goods and services, overall, global growth has been stronger and commodity prices have been sharply higher than expected, the bank said in its statement.

However, the risk remains that potential growth will be weaker than assumed.

Current monetary policy is appropriately accommodative, the statement added, while there continue to be important downside and upside risks to inflation in Canada.

Economists had all but unanimously expected a quarter-point trim Tuesday - though most also believed this would represent the end of the monetary easing which had taken the overnight rate down from 4.5 per cent since December.

This included sharp half-point cuts in March and April in the target for the overnight rate - the interest that banks charge each other on one-day loans, which influences other rates such the cost of consumer and corporate loans and mortgages.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke has indicated the next move in U.S. interest rates could be upward.

Bernanke said late Monday that American growth looks weak in the current quarter but the risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so.

He stressed inflation concerns, noting that sharply rising energy prices have added to the risks of inflation, and stressed that the Fed will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations.

This strengthened expectations that the U.S. central bank will hold the cost of short-term money steady at its next meeting June 24-25 and probably well beyond.

The European central bank has also warned it may hike rates because of concern that swelling costs of oil and food could provoke an inflationary spiral.

The tone of the Bank of Canada statement all but shut the door on further rate cuts, commented BMO Capital Markets economist Douglas Porter.

This is quite an abrupt turn from the last decision date, when the bank declared that \'further monetary stimulus would likely be required.\'

Text of the Bank of Canada statement Tuesday as it held its its policy-setting interest rate unchanged at three per cent: Since the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), economic developments have been broadly in line with expectations. However, the balance of risks to the Bank\'s April projection for inflation in Canada has shifted slightly to the upside. Although the composition of U.S. growth has not been favourable for demand for Canadian goods and services, overall, global growth has been stronger and commodity prices have been sharply higher than expected. At the same time, many of the downside risks to inflation identified in the April MPR have eased, while the evolution of credit conditions has been in line with expectations. The risk remains that potential growth will be weaker than assumed.

With the decline in first-quarter GDP, the Canadian economy is judged to have moved into excess supply, which is expected to increase this year. Consistent with the April MPR, the Bank continues to project that economic growth will pick up this year and accelerate in 2009, owing in part to a firming of U.S. demand and accommodative monetary policy in Canada. If current levels of energy prices persist, total CPI inflation will rise above 3 per cent later this year. However, with the Canadian economy operating in excess supply, core inflation is expected to remain below 2 per cent through 2009. Both total and core inflation should converge on 2 per cent in 2010 as the economy returns to balance. Against this backdrop, the Bank now judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriately accommodative to bring aggregate demand and supply into balance and to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target. There continue to be important downside and upside risks to inflation in Canada, which the Bank will monitor closely.