每日市场点评 --- June 16, 2008

The market started the new week in a lackluster fashion. The S&P500, which was hovering around the unchanged level most of the day, ended higher fractionally. The Nasdaq, led by some big techs including Rimm and Apple, outperformed the board market and advanced 20 points. The news on the economic front was mostly negative. The NY Empire State index dropped to minus 8.7 from minus 3.2 while economists expected a small increase. In a separate report, the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index fell to 18, a record low, from 19 in May. Economists were looking for an unchanged reading. As the sentiment index usually acts as a leading indicator to the housing market, a record low reading certainly doesn’t bode well for the sector in the near future. Lastly, net foreign purchases for April increased to $115.1 billion from a revised $79.6 billion in the previous month. The US dollar reached a record low level against the euro back in April but that was not enough to deter foreign investors from purchasing the US assets.

Energies were leading the market despite a nearly $6 reversal in the crude price. Earlier, the crude hit a new record high and was just cents away from the $140 mark. Since tomorrow is the July crude option expiry date, more volatility in the energy market should be expected. The CRB commodity index closed at a new high today, partly helped by a weak dollar. Over the weekend, there was no strong message regarding the dollar coming out of the G-8 meeting as some traders had feared ahead of the meeting. But given the sizable rise in the dollar last week, a pullback is not surprising at all. Treasuries initially rallied over the weak-than-expected reading in the NY Empire State index but later were ending the day essentially unchanged. We are going to get the Fed meeting next week and currently there is about 20% possibility that the Fed is going to increase the interest rate at that meeting. Obviously we don’t’ expect that to happen and it will really be a shock to the equity market if that does happen.