最近离开了美国一段时间，就有机会从一个不同的角度考虑问题。看了几本书，发发议论，纯属个人观点。 （先声明，储蓄消费是我们华人的一大优点和强项，假如萧条来临时，华人的日子还是会很不错的。过不了多久，全美国就会“追捧”华人了，呵呵。）
《美元大崩溃》Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse by Peter D. Schiff and John Downes.英文原书出版于2007年，中译本出版于2008年。
作者早在2006年底或2007年初写作这本书时，就问出了这样的问题：“如果房利美和房地美破产，那政府该怎么办？“，而这个问题最近被暴露给美国大众知道，所以我很佩服作者的远见和预测。 当然这位作者早就预言过次贷风暴。除此之外，作者还说美国将会发生消费信用问题，造成得损失比次贷危机还严重，这涉及到信用卡证券，汽车贷款证券等等。
房地产泡沫一定会破裂，并最终导致严重的经济损失，之后美国经济将经过一个痛苦而漫长的重建时期。通过从信贷消费转向储蓄消费，通过调整，美国将来还是能够回归一个健康的经济道路。但这段时间是多长？很少有人能明确回答，只是希望这种崩溃是渐进式的，以便减少大众的负担。
谈到美国国债8.5万亿，大家很吃惊，可实际数字比这个还要高，各类已发生的和潜在发生的汇总，大概可以达到50万亿美元的政府债务。所以您说，世界各国政府能不为美元担心吗？能不抛点美元吗？因为是他们天天在为美国人买单啊。最严重的是中国政府，把中国外汇储备的20%在近四年内都投在了那两个房贷公司。
如果美元崩溃，哪种货币将代替美元成为世界储备货币？如果人民币能够自由浮动，并有金本位支撑，那么人民币就会成为世界储蓄货币。所以趁着当前美元大逃亡的初期，赶紧减少美元存款，增加在中国的各种资产或投资。作者还预言，美元崩溃后，世界货币当然试图回归于金本位。所以大家要及早投资纸黄金或黄金实物，黄金期货。预测黄金会升到5100美元1盎司。
最后说一句，储蓄消费是我们华人的一大优点和强项，萧条来临时，华人的日子还是会很不错的。过不了多久，全美国就会“追捧”华人了，呵呵。以上是俺总结的作者观点，再加一点小议论。离开美国的这几个月，比较了中美俄，最后俺得说--俺还是很爱美国的。
《美元大崩溃〉by Peter D. Schiff
edufmcn 发表评论于
'最严重的是中国政府，把中国外汇储备的20%在近四年内都投在了那两个房贷公司。'
I can read Chinese but can not type Chinese. So here is my comment about the above paragraph.
1) The Chinese investment money bought 房利美和房地美's bonds not stock.
2) The reason they buy because two bonds pay higher interests. For example, a recent 5-year bond pays 4.1% comparing 5-year US Treasury notes of 3.01%. 1% difference means 1 billon profit for every 100 billion investment.
3) As long as 房利美和房地美 are not default and the investment is held through maturity, the investment is safe.
4) When companies are filing bankruptcy, stock holder will get nothing. Bond holders will be paid depending on the remaining values. This is the risk. However, Uncle Sam will not allow their bankruptcy to happen. As you already knew, Uncle Sam is helping these two companies now.
5) Right now, the Bond's King, the Pimco's Bill Gross is actually saying the bonds for these two companies are undervalued.
I can read Chinese but can not type Chinese. So here is my comment about the above paragraph.
1) The Chinese investment money bought 房利美和房地美's bonds not stock.
2) The reason they buy because two bonds pay higher interests. For example, a recent 5-year bond pays 4.1% comparing 5-year US Treasury notes of 3.01%. 1% difference means 1 billon profit for every 100 billion investment.
3) As long as 房利美和房地美 are not default and the investment is held through maturity, the investment is safe.
4) When companies are filing bankruptcy, stock holder will get nothing. Bond holders will be paid depending on the remaining values. This is the risk. However, Uncle Sam will not allow their bankruptcy to happen. As you already knew, Uncle Sam is helping these two companies now.
5) Right now, the Bond's King, the Pimco's Bill Gross is actually saying the bonds for these two companies are undervalued.
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