I am writing some analysis and prediction of solar stocks based on the outlook from the companies and their history.
LDK:
Company Outlook:
--Revenue $1.65-1.75 Billion
--Gross Margin 23%-28%
In the second quarter
--Revenue $441.7 million
--Gross margin 25.4%, gross profit $112.3 million
--Operating profit $100.3 million, operating profit margin 22.7%==>management overhead 10.68%
--tax $13.3million, net-income from this quarter $87.0million. ==> tax rate 13.26%
Back to the outlook: we use the minimum number and average number
--Gross profit is $379.5-$433.5million
--subtract 10.68% management overhead and then 13.26% tax, net income is $294 million - 335.8
--number of shares is 115 million from Q2 results.
--earning per share is $2.55-2.91
--current stock price $40.8
--p/e = 14.02-16
Comments:
--positive side: The net income of the first two quarter is $200million. So as long as 3rd and 4th quarter can get the same net income as in the first quarter, the annual net income will exceed $300 million.
--negative side: the interest expense is increasing, can it be -$15million in the third quarter? currency exchange gain may become negative due to dollar appreciation, can it be -$5 million in the third quarter?
--Estimate 3rd quarter, LDK says $486-$496 million revenue, let's assume the same operating profit $100 million as the second quarter, take -$15 million for other expenses, -$15 million for tax, net-income should be at least $70million. Let's make it more conservative, say the net income is $60-70million, e/s is $0.52-0.60 for the third quarter.
--There is good chance that the annual net income is closer to the mean number $335.8 million
