Each big bear market has powerful counter bear rally. That is where the true danger is.
A lot of the folks were successfully getting out of the market at the early stage of 2000 bear market. And they were killed later in the bear market by trapping into one of the powerful counter bear rallies thinking that it was the beginning of another bull market. I do believe that the same scenario will play out this time again.
A powerful counter bear rally happens when people least expected, as their hope getting dimmer and dimmer. The current market does give me that sort of sense now. The key to survive is, to make sure that we don't get trapped into one of this powerful counter bear rallies, and thus avoid the true danger.