昨天说市场在假摔,今日即继续向上突破,验证了我前不久所提出的道指7987,SPX837为下一目标位的设想。有意思的是,今天是纳指率先发力,出现了三大指数轮番走强的局面,可见市场后续强势可期。短线继续维持对SPX866、道指83xx的判断;再往上看到多少?891,952,现在说意义不很大,罗马不是一天建成的,本轮开涨以来,道指我也是先看7260,然后7500,然后7987……反正只要趋势在,就大胆hold。SPX颈线位上移至786附近,跌破此线则宣布趋势崩溃。
大多数时候股市上赚钱是不易的,大多数人在股市上是不怎么赚钱的。
然而现在,股市又到了make easy money的时候。SPX从666起步,两周多时间轻舟已过万重山。期间甚至都没有像样的回档。在这种情况下,你所有要做的就是buy and hold,let your profits RUN。怎么听起来很耳熟?是的,这种投资策略在过去一年多以来屡遭败绩,几乎被人们放弃,这三周却又变成最行之有效的办法,真是三十年河东转河西。这说明了什么?我今天不是要探讨投资策略的,我想说的是,市场自身运行规律已经发生了某种微妙的变化。
打开K线图,这种连续大阳之后继续拉大阳的现象似乎已经很久不见了。
GDP下降了?没问题,人们预计的本来更糟糕呢。
失业率越来越高?Fine,等到失业率升到12%没准就是经济见底的最有效信号,市场巴不得失业率降得更快一些呢……
IBM,GOOGLE们也要裁员?无所谓,反正虱子多了不咬人,嘿嘿
技术指标超买?who cares? 涨了这么多不是还在8000点以下嘛。
…………
你能感觉到这些市场心态的微妙变化吗?
前期上涨的急先锋花旗今日下跌,大盘却依然保持了上扬。这是个好现象,说明市场弱化了前期炒作超跌反弹的预期,进而向纵深扩展,借一句套话,有点儿像可持续发展的样子。如果花旗走软,大盘可保短线无碍;如果花旗再次发力,也将会给予大盘上扬的动力。
总之,不盲目看多,更不盲目看空,只要关键位置不破,趋势尚在,手里的货就要拿紧了。
前几天在GOOGLE 论坛上看到一段西人关于SPX的讨论,贴上来和大家消遣,请注意日期是3月20日,SPX768左右。
From: foehn5...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 08:33:49 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 12:33 pm
Subject: begin to short sp 500 again..
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it is time to short sp 500, take ur profit while u can.
From: xlo...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:50:51 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 3:50 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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Totally agree. We are going through the floor, much lower than those
"market experts" predicted before. S&P500 on 500. That sounds good for
this market, this economy and this government.
From: glutamine...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:03:12 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 4:03 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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agreed... you guys are the only realists
on the boards.. follks are talking about rallys..
I guess it could rally before the bottom ..kind
of like a flaming fireball rolling down hill and
before it hits the bottom it rolls up a small bump
or two
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:03:12 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 4:03 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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agreed... you guys are the only realists
on the boards.. follks are talking about rallys..
I guess it could rally before the bottom ..kind
of like a flaming fireball rolling down hill and
before it hits the bottom it rolls up a small bump
or two
From: lhea...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:08:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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The sooner the markets go down, the sooner I can go long again.
On Mar 20, 11:03 am, glutamine...@gmail.com wrote:
From: finley4e...@gmail.com
Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2009 08:39:20 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Mar 23 2009 12:39 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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You think it is time to short when the technicals indicate we are
breaking out of a downtrend. Good luck amateur. You're just guessing
at this point, hopefully you realize that you are guessing.
Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2009 08:39:20 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Mar 23 2009 12:39 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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You think it is time to short when the technicals indicate we are
breaking out of a downtrend. Good luck amateur. You're just guessing
at this point, hopefully you realize that you are guessing.