http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124043653743145097.html
APRIL 23, 2009
Europe\'s Grim Outlook Challenges World Recovery
IMF Predicts EU Will Endure a Deeper Recession, Slower Turnaround Than Other Regions, While Bank Losses Outpace U.S.
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The EU\'s economy is set to contract 4% this year, even worse than the 2.8% drop projected for the U.S., according to new forecasts published Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund.
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European banks\' losses from the global financial crisis are now projected to overtake U.S. banks\' losses, according to IMF figures, which could hurt the banks\' ability to lend liberally to help the bloc out of its crisis. More than half of the losses on continental Europe are homemade, the IMF said, reflecting bad loans to European firms and households rather than toxic U.S. securities.
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The weakening of Europe\'s banking sector is potentially more damaging for the wider economy than woes at U.S. banks, because Europe\'s financial system relies more on bank lending and less on securities markets. Although Europe\'s banks have bigger balance sheets than U.S. lenders, so that their losses are smaller as a proportion of total assets, they will need more fresh money than the U.S. to repair their capital buffers, the IMF said.
An IMF report published Tuesday said that write-downs at Western European banks outside the U.K. will total $1.109 trillion for 2007-2010, topping the U.S. total of $1.049 trillion. Banks in the euro zone have so far written down only 17% of their losses, compared with roughly 50% at U.S. banks, the IMF said. U.K. banks have written down about a third of their $310 billion in expected losses, the report said.
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Fixing the banking system is particularly tricky in the EU, where 16 of the 27 countries share the euro currency and a central bank, but where banking regulation mostly remains the preserve of the national governments.
In Continental Europe, there is basically no prospect of any coordinated policy action to identify the weaknesses in the banking system, says Nicolas Veron, a research fellow at Brussels think tank Bruegel.
Europe\'s economy also faces a greater risk of further deterioration than other regions because of the deep economic and financial crisis in the formerly communist East. Austria-based banks, for example, have some $278 billion in exposure to those countries, equivalent to over 70% of Austria\'s gross domestic product.
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O8两月前要欧洲人多花点钱拯救他们自己的经济，德国法国还牛逼得很。
现在德国人开始慌了：
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,620615,00.html
