labor\'s day钱总结了一下。（最近market又涨了一些，不过长期的看法未变）
US stock : neutral / positive
除非能证明现在的eco data是假的，否则US market只会有调整，不会有暴跌。从历史上看，每经历一次大的经济危机，之后12个月的market平均上浮60-70%，我们现在基本完成了这一个过程，如果这次也是上涨70%，明年初有望达到spx1150. 不过24个月，也就上涨80%，对应spx是1220.
Intl Developed : neutral / negative
日本，欧洲的问题依然没有解决
Intl Emerging: positive (China positive)
这是经济的火车头。
US treasury: negative
现在的yield太低，一旦经济recover，inflation会起来，treasury不是好投资。
Aus Dollar, Canada Dollar: positive
因为commodity要涨。
Euro：negative
一堆懒鬼的国家没有理由货币这么高。
USD: neutral / negative
出来混早晚要还的。几万亿的空头钞票危害慢慢会看见。
US muni：positive
现在muni实在是好的投资，20年tax free的yield有6%+，相对于税前10%左右。因为税收上不来，州政府也不能印钞票，只好借高利贷，加州最近要要借12B. 但是一旦经济稳定下来，税收跟上，支出受到控制，各州的财务状况会缓解，muni的yield
会下来。
US Re: positive
房子会回来的，US的market相对中国等国家便宜多了。
China Re: positive
没办法，inflation 太快。
commodity: positive
各国的currency其实都在贬值。
Gold: positive
虽然这东西没什么使用价值，不完全算commodity，但是却是衡量美元价值的最好的秤。
我对各个securities长期的看法
MarketTimer 发表评论于
About muni bond, I do several questions which I hope you can answer:
(0) Compare MUNI bond fund, closed end fund and individual MUNI bond, what is the pros and cons for each one? I have a pretty big size porfolio which can afford me to buy individual bond to achieve diversity.
(1) MUNI bond fund
Could you please recommend several? I do some check and the dividend are all below 4%
(2) The 6% 20 Years MUNI Bond you mentioned:
Do you mean individual MUNI bond? I had bought some MUNI bonds in the past (still holding). I have never been able to sell any bond. I find out there is no "Good to Cancel" order for bond. So, you basically have to input a sell order everyday. The spread on the buy/sell is pretty big. Do you have anyway to deal with the liquidity part of problem? For example, if I want to rebalance from bond to stock and I cannot sell bond at reasonable price, then I still don't have money to buy stock when they are cheap.
(3)Zero coupon MUNI bond
What's your thought on this type of bond? I don't mind getting the pricipal and interest back in 20 years. The problem concerning me is that during this period, if the bond is downgraded or city is broke, there is no easy way to sell it without suffering big loss on the spread (which will be even bigger during stress time).
Thanks a lot in advance
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