Cobra等ID的贴子选集

自由的心灵,自在的人生. 无人能识之,唯独山水云.
打印 被阅读次数


2010-08-12



统计显示,大大高开,放巨量的缺口,是很久都不会补的。

大大低开,放巨量,但是这个巨量,不能太巨量,要在Volume MA100的2倍以内,那这个gap也不会补,如果是3倍,甚至4倍,就很难说了,有可能是capitulation。当然,这种统计比较难做,所以我只能告诉你个大概,总之,
大大低开,没有很大的巨量,是不好的现象。

CREE理论上没有跌破60,就还在巨大的盘整区内,就没有问题。

任何股票,都是盘整,上升和下降的阶段,所以一年前的牛股,不代表永远是牛股。牛股一旦失势,跌起来会比一般的股票要厉害。

基本原则,还是不买lower low的股票,不卖higher high的股票。



2010-08-13


关于个股,我只能跟各位这么说,如果你不是10年20年的投资的话,所有的股票都有很牛的时候,也有很熊的时候,就像任何事物都有产生发展和灭亡的过程。换句话说,去年很牛很牛的股票,不代表会永远牛下去,往往这种很牛很牛的股票会跌的比谁都惨,尽管可能从FA讲,它的前景好的不能再好。当然,前提还是你不准备拥有10年20年。以上肺腑之言,是用血的代价和很多年的经验换来的,自己体会吧。你们没见过我选个股,见过了,就会知道,选牛股其实并非难事,所以不要总盯着一两个个股,以为除了这个牛股,就没有其他牛股了。



2010-08-17


大高开,跳出昨天的range,因此这个空可能不补。这里有个小小统计,其实跟我昨天在After Bell Quick Summary里的统计是类似的: In SPY's history, when it suffered 5 straight down days into a Monday, then through Thursday it was up 7 out of 8 times, with a +1.7% average return (the loser was -0.3%).



2010-08-19


2小时以上都没有touch EMA20,这也是个strong trend day的特征。第一次测试EMA20,suppose要fail。



CoolMax:

一般说Naked Call或者Put。
都是指Sell。

所以,BuyToOpen,BuyToClose, SellToOpen, SellToClose比较准确。

STO Call with Stock就是Covered Call




2010-08-20

For what it's worth, the table below shows the S&P's performance after we got a second Hindenburg Omen signal within two weeks of the first one (I've excluded any that occurred on back-to-back sessions).  The "Max Gain" and "Max Loss" columns show the S&P's best gain and worst loss during the next three months.

 

Date

1 Week

Later

2 Week

Later

1 Month

Later

3 Months

Later

Max

Gain

Max

Loss

# Days

'Til Low

05/20/65-1.5%-2.3%-4.6%-2.7%0.3%-9.5%26
11/18/65-0.2%-1.0%-0.6%0.5%2.7%-3.3%11
12/27/650.7%2.0%2.6%-2.2%3.5%-5.3%52
10/13/67-0.7%-1.1%-4.8%-0.2%1.9%-6.2%18
03/26/74-4.7%-5.5%-8.6%-9.2%0.3%-12.3%44
05/31/783.0%2.3%-1.7%6.3%9.3%-3.8%25
10/08/79-5.9%-8.4%-7.9%-0.9%0.4%-9.9%13
12/26/79-2.4%2.0%5.4%-8.4%11.5%-9.2%63
02/12/80-1.2%-4.7%-10.4%-9.8%2.0%-20.1%30
07/22/86-1.5%-0.5%4.9%-0.9%6.7%-4.2%48
07/10/903.1%-0.2%-5.1%-12.1%3.7%-17.0%56
12/19/916.3%9.3%7.9%7.5%10.1%--
12/20/992.8%-1.3%1.9%5.3%5.4%-6.6%46
04/17/061.8%1.6%0.5%-4.0%3.2%-5.1%40
06/21/07-1.1%0.5%1.3%-0.2%2.2%-10.0%38
07/18/07-1.8%-5.2%-8.7%-0.5%1.9%-11.4%20
10/25/07-0.4%-2.6%-7.1%-10.6%2.5%-16.1%59
       
Median-0.7%-1.0%-1.7%-0.9%2.7%-9.2%39
% Positive35%35%41%24%



2010-08-25


/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>/>
散户英勇。



2.png





数据越大越不好,表示买CALL得太多。ISEE只记录散户。

2010-08-26


熊熊最希望看到这个东东收盘在260以上,哈哈。

1.png



2010-08-28


[原创] 近期强/弱势股的挑选及入场点胡一刀

挑选
一。股价接近历史新高或半年内新高
二。短期均线高于中期均线高于长期均线,均线排列成发散状
三。股价易涨难跌,走势强于大盘,即大盘大跌,他小跌,大盘小涨,他大涨
四。股价顶部处没有巨阴/巨阳和巨量
入场点
一。激进型投资者可现价进入
二。稳健型投资者可等短期均线回调到中期均线处进入
三。千万不要猜顶,不要short/put,不要逆势而为
近期强势股
lvs,de,tsl,ego,pcln,crm,fmcn,mcd
与上述相反的就是弱势股
近期弱势股
sndk,shld,rimm,isrg,bby,urbn
做股票一定要顺势而为
大盘走强,做多强势股,不要猜顶
大盘走弱,做空弱势股,不要猜底


2010-09-03

Cobra: 这轮上涨完了,pullback几天,然后再涨,然后pullback几天,然后再涨,这是最后一长了,然后会有较大的pullback。

                 Stockcharts的CPCI and CPCE盘中永远都是错的,要7:30pm ET以后才会修正。



2010-09-07 :


USDJPY再创15年新低,持续了2个月的背离仍在继续...
X!nG 发表于 2010-9-7 09:39
    这个,顺便说,是我觉得做熊需要担心的地方,日元目前在历史高位,一旦开始滑落,carry trade会很猛啊。


CPCI:    Index put call ratio,越高越不好,说明大户看跌,至少是在hedge风险。


CPCI extremely high,这意味着大户知道什么我们小散还不知道的事情,因此提前布局,hedge their long positions。CPCI过高也导致VIX and SPX on the same EMA(20) side,这是个潜在的trend change信号,不可小视。



反弹。一般规律是弄个Bear Flag,然后还有一腿,才能完。


你哪怕有再多的证据,price action不配合也没用啊。Price action永远是最大的!






2010-9-27 09:50:

既使POMO当天也并不一定涨。当然,基本上只要有POMO的,中短期几乎就是guarantee要长了。现在基本属于Fed操纵股市。
登录后才可评论.
Logo

Looks like your ad blocker is on.

×

We rely on ads to keep creating quality content for you to enjoy for free.

Please support our site by disabling your ad blocker.

Continue without supporting us

Choose your Ad Blocker

  • Adblock Plus
  • Adblock
  • Adguard
  • Ad Remover
  • Brave
  • Ghostery
  • uBlock Origin
  • uBlock
  • UltraBlock
  • Other
  1. In the extension bar, click the AdBlock Plus icon
  2. Click the large blue toggle for this website
  3. Click refresh
  1. In the extension bar, click the AdBlock icon
  2. Under "Pause on this site" click "Always"
  1. In the extension bar, click on the Adguard icon
  2. Click on the large green toggle for this website
  1. In the extension bar, click on the Ad Remover icon
  2. Click "Disable on This Website"
  1. In the extension bar, click on the orange lion icon
  2. Click the toggle on the top right, shifting from "Up" to "Down"
  1. In the extension bar, click on the Ghostery icon
  2. Click the "Anti-Tracking" shield so it says "Off"
  3. Click the "Ad-Blocking" stop sign so it says "Off"
  4. Refresh the page
  1. In the extension bar, click on the uBlock Origin icon
  2. Click on the big, blue power button
  3. Refresh the page
  1. In the extension bar, click on the uBlock icon
  2. Click on the big, blue power button
  3. Refresh the page
  1. In the extension bar, click on the UltraBlock icon
  2. Check the "Disable UltraBlock" checkbox
  1. Please disable your Ad Blocker
  2. Disable any DNS blocking tools such as AdGuardDNS or NextDNS

If the prompt is still appearing, please disable any tools or services you are using that block internet ads (e.g. DNS Servers).

Logo