S&P 500 PE average

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avg: 16.36 (1880 to now).



1930: 30+



2000: 40+

2008: 26

Now: around 20

2009 March when bottom: 12

1970 to 1980: around 10




Monitor this closely can avoid bubble market



the P/E is 18.5 when the economy is coming out of a recession. Mr.Siegel

now is the trading at 14.5 times forecast 2010 profits.


that imply anothe 20% stock market gain.



now company margin is 7%, historically is 6%.









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