今年中期选举结果可能影响明后年的税率

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布什总统执政时(2001, 2003)生效的减税法, 到今年年底过期, 对于好多中国留学生双职工家庭, 税率可能会增加. 以下是网上的算法. 未经查对, 不知是否准确. The following article is from Foxnews, a pro-GOP web site.

For the family of four bringing in a combined income of $75,000, theexpiration of all Bush-era tax cuts will amount to a tax increase of$2,143 next year, according to the Tax Foundation's 2011 Income Tax Calculator.

A family of four earning $150,000 would see its income tax burdenincrease by $4,510 to $23,150, according to the Tax Foundation.

Single filers, meanwhile, would see their taxes rise by $605 at the$50,000 income plateau and by $1,355 at $75,000. A single filer earning$150,000, including $15,000 in long-term capital gains, would pay anextra $3,269, with a total tax liability of $28,340.

A single parent of one child earning $25,000 would see his taxliability rise by $955, decreasing his tax refund of $1,856 to justmore than $900. A low-income family of five earning a total of $45,000would see their taxes increase by $2,538, equating to a total taxliability of $1,028.

An upper-middle income family of four with two earners pulling in$150,000, including $15,000 in long-term capital gains, would see theirtaxes increase by $3,802.  That family's total tax burden? Roughly$21,600.

A high-income family of four, meanwhile, with a combined income of$300,000 and $20,000 in itemized deductions, would see their taxes jumpby more than $11,000 if Congress allows all of the Bush-era tax cuts toexpire. That equals a total tax liability of $68,392.


我听一位同事说, capital gain 肯定要涨。 从现在的15% 涨到20%。 更可怕的是把Capital gain 当成正当收入打税, 那可能要交40% (not very likely to pass the law for high income earner).

民主党受工会支持, 富人税率较高 (富人在 top 10% income). Top 10% income earners 交的税占税收总收入35% 以上. 国库税收用于教育, 基础研究, 社会福利. 据美国人(学政治)分析, 好多voters对经济现状不满,很可能在中期选举选出受GOP控制的众议院(House of Congress), GOP增加35 to 40 seats, 即GOP成为多数控制众议院. 现在GOP 有178 seats, 再加上40 seats, 就有218 seats (Hose 总共435 seat). 在参议院(Senate), GOP也可能增加 5-9 seats, 占46 to 50 席位. (现在GOP 有41 seats). 美国选民都希望政府有权力制衡, 这种选举结果可能给Obama总统制造一些Challenge. 民主党想增税的法案就不太容易通过. (这几年房产税涨了, sale tax 也涨了, 水电费涨了. 唯一没涨的是电器. 42"的彩电从$1500 降到$800,  手提电脑从上千降到$500. 这都得感谢中国制造). 不管中期选举结果如何, 希望明年税不要涨太多.

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Senate showdown may pave way for year-end tax deal
By DAVID ESPO,
AP Special Correspondent David Espo, Ap Special Correspondent 12 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Senate Republicans derailed legislation Saturday to extend expiring tax cuts at all but the highest income levels in a political showdown that paradoxically clears a path for a compromise with the White House on steps to boost the economy.

"We need to get this resolved and I'm confident we can do it," President Barack Obama said shortly after the near party-line votes. The public must have "the peace of mind that their taxes will not go up" on Jan. 1, he added.

Obama has signaled that he will bow to Republican demands for extending tax cuts at all income levels, and his remarks capped a day that lurched between political conflict and talk of compromise on an issue that played a leading role in last month's elections.

Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., eyeing the 2012 campaign, accused Republicans of siding with "millionaires and billionaires" with their rejection of proposals that would let tax cuts passed during George W. Bush's presidency lapse on seven-figure incomes.

Republicans noted that unemployment rose to 9.8 percent last month and said it made no sense to raise taxes on anyone in a weak economy. Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., jabbed that Democrats were undergoing a "political catharsis" in public after losing control of the House and surrendering several seats in the Senate in the Nov. 2 election.

But the rhetoric subsided quickly after the votes, and Senate leaders in both parties said they hoped political clashes would give way to compromise in the next several days.

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader, said he was relatively confident there would be a deal with the White House "not to raise taxes in the middle of a recession." He said talks were continuing on the length of an extension to be enacted for the cuts that were put in place in 2001 and 2003.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said he hoped for an agreement by the middle or end of next week on legislation that would combine an extension of tax cuts with a renewal of expiring jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed.

Officials have said that in addition to tax cuts and unemployment benefits, the White House wants to include renewal of several other tax provisions that are expiring. They include a break for lower- and middle- class wage earners, even if they don't make enough to pay the government, as well as for college students and for companies that hire the unemployed.

Key lawmakers and administration officials have been at work negotiating the terms of a possible deal for several days.

But many congressional Democrats privately have expressed anger at Obama for his willingness to surrender to Republican demands to let the tax cuts remain in place at upper incomes, and numerous officials said no compromise would be possible until they had engineered votes in both the House and Senate.

Any deal would mean a reversal for Obama, who said in the 2008 presidential race and this year that he wanted to let cuts expire above incomes of $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples.

In the Senate, a bill to enact Obama's original position was blocked on a vote of 53-36, seven votes short of the 60 needed to advance. Republicans were unanimous in their opposition, and were joined by Democratic Sens. Russell Feingold of Wisconsin, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Jim Webb of Virginia and independent Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut.

The second measure would have kept the tax cuts in place on incomes over $1 million. It appeared crafted to appeal to senators from states with large high-income populations, as well as cast Republicans as protectors of the rich.

It was blocked on a vote of 53-37, also seven short of the 60 needed. A slightly different lineup of Democrats sided with Republicans, including Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois, Tom Harkin of Iowa, Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia and Feingold. Lieberman also opposed it.

The White House opposed the second measure bill, and given the president's willingness to sign a bill to extend all the expiring tax cuts, there was never any doubt about the outcome of the day's proceedings in the Senate.

But Democrats said that even with elections nearly two years away, they intended to try and depict Republicans as defenders of the rich whose policies contribute to rising deficits.

"Do we want to extend those tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires at a time of huge deficits. I would argue vociferously we shouldn't, said Schumer.

Referring to the 2012 elections, he said about Republicans: "I'm going to be here for the next year, next two years, to remind my colleagues that they were willing to increase the deficit $300 billion to give tax breaks to people who have income over a million dollars."

Republicans sounded alternately bemused and offended.

"It is the most astounding theory I have ever seen. Raise taxes to create jobs," said Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said Democrats perhaps viewed the votes as a gift to their political constituents. But, he added, "two years of wall to wall Democratic rule has only made the situation worse" in the economy.

The day's events capped a week that included a meeting at the White House at which Obama and top congressional Republicans sat down together for the first time since the elections.

Both the president and GOP lawmakers pledged afterward they would try to work together for the good of the economy, and agreed to set up a small negotiating group to discuss the tax issues.

The White House, Reid and Republicans have been negotiating quietly, and McConnell made a point of saying he had been in frequent touch with the administration in recent days.

In addition to tax cuts, Obama has made ratification of a new arms control treaty with Russia a priority of the postelection session of Congress, reducing his leverage with Republicans in the struggle over taxes.

Senior Senate Republicans have indicated they will not try to interfere with a debate on the issue as long as government spending and tax cut issues have been resolved to their satisfaction.

A two-thirds majority is required for ratification, meaning the White House will need the support of at least nine Republicans to prevail. Vice President Joseph Biden and other officials have been involved in talks with several GOP senators in hopes of lining up the votes needed.
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