So far this month and week, the historical tendency has run true to form in which stocks underperform from May through October after a relatively strong November-April run.
The week started with the great news that Osama Bin Laden is gone, in a brilliantly planned and executed U.S. military operation. But, from the standpoint of the world financial markets, other factors carry more weight.
For instance, evidence continues to build that the pace of economic growth is slowing, particularly in the U.S. This is one of the factors that brought about a sharp sell-off in the rapidly rising commodities prices that had led the broad market higher. The damage has been most dramatic with silver, which had soared the highest and was long overdue for a pullback. Increased margin requirements and news of selling by some big-name speculators fueled the decline. But it has been the justifiable weakness in oil, after a big runup, that has had the greater impact on stocks. The commodity sell-off accelerated today, with oil and silver each tumbling 10%-plus. Gold was down by $50 per oz. at its worst level.
Yet most stocks outside of the energy and raw materials sectors have suffered much less in the pullback. As of today's close, the Standard & Poor's 500 was down 2.1% for the week and from last Friday's multiyear high. And a fair number of conservative stocks have even hit new 52-week highs this week.
This strongly suggests that we're still in a rising market trend, in which sector leadership may be changing. It's too soon to say for sure that consumer staples, health care, utilities and other industry groups that are less sensitive to the economy will now lead the way. Still, the economic situation and a possible increase in investor risk aversion support the case.
U.S. job growth, never robust in this recovery anyway, may be slowing. Yesterday's monthly private-sector employment report from Automatic Data Processing fell short of estimates. And initial jobless claims for last week totaled 474,000, well above the expected 400,000 or so and the highest level since last August. The federal government's monthly employment report, often a market mover, will be released tomorrow morning.
Slower economic growth and, for now at least, a break in the commodity-price spike reduces the potential upward pressure on inflation.
Reinforcing the slowdown theme, yields of U.S. Treasury securities fell today to or near their lowest levels of the year (with higher prices) as investors moved to safety. The troubled U.S. dollar, which has been on the decline all year, at last now is showing some signs of stability. For how long, who knows?
- From Leeb's Market Forecast
