After a roller-coaster year for the local property sector, which was reined in by government policies to cool the market and global financial uncertainties, what are the prospects for 2012? Property agents estimate that developers released about 10,000 new flats in the primary market last year, and there are potentially 20,000 new units for sale this year.
However, developers are expected to market new projects in phases and are unlikely to dump flats at discount prices. Luxury properties in prime locations include The Altitude in Happy Valley by Kerry Properties, Agenta in Seymour Road at Mid-Levels by Swire Properties, The Signature in Tai Hang by New World Development, Wing Tai Properties’ new development at Coronation Terrace at Mid-Levels, and Soundwill Holdings’ Park Haven in Causeway Bay.
The biggest suppliers are expected to be Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP), Cheung Kong and Sino Land.
SHKP is selling Chatham Gate in Hung Hom, while it will also put its new project at Tuen Mun station on the West Rail line on sale and phase one will provide about 1,000 units. Cheung Kong, now selling Festival City in Tai Wai, expects to release 3,500 to 4,000 new flats for sale this year, including a 1,720-unit project at West Rail’s Tsuen Wan West station and LOHAS Park phase three comprising about 1,600 units in Tseung Kwan O.
Sino Land is expected to release more units in Providence Bay in Pak Sek Kok, while it is presently marketing The Coronation in West Kowloon, situated near the future Guangzhou- Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link terminal.
Although new flats can still command a premium on secondary market values, developers are facing increasing pressure with fewer buyers. Pricing of The Coronation, at about HK$13,700 per square foot, is expected to continue the trend from late last year of being closer to the secondhand market. The project is a joint development of Sino, Nan Fung, K. Wah and Chinese Estates.
“Developers will not be as aggressive as before in pricing when they launch new projects for sale,” says Simon Lo, executive director of research and advisory for Asia at Colliers International.
“Many potential buyers are adopting a wait-andsee attitude, especially those in the secondary market. With concern about global economic growth and further upward pressure on the mortgage lending rate, the home market will feel the impact. Luxury home prices are likely to fall by 13 per cent as a result of the weakened sentiment.”
Lo adds that the leasing market is also feeling the chill with landlords cutting rents to entice tenants.
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone remains a thorny issue and there are concerns about the mainland’s economic prospects. Hong Kong’s economy is also facing a technical recession.
Thomas Lam, head of research for Greater China at Knight Frank, expects the residential market to see an overall correction of 10 to 15 per cent this year, though luxury home prices will fare better and slip by 10 per cent or less.
“The government may need to review its property cooling measures, such as relaxing the special stamp duty or easing credit restrictions, if things get worse,” Lam says.
The secondhand market is expected to face another challenging year. Homeowners are being advised to drop asking prices. At the same time, buyers are reluctant to commit to a market that they think could fall further. “Sales activity is sluggish right now and the volume of transactions may fall further. There are many cash-rich home seekers, but they are waiting for a better moment to enter the market,” Lam says.
Policy risks will continue to be a key issue – not only for Hong Kong, but also the mainland and the world – as the United States presidential election campaign will be in full swing, while the mainland is expected to see a leadership reshuffle. Hong Kong will have a new chief executive and any change in housing policy will affect the market. Recent announcements suggest the government may be slowing the pace of residential land sales, but developers will need to prepare for tighter rules controlling the sale of new flats.
2011年本地物業市場受制於政府穩定樓市措施，以及國際金融動盪，物業市場走過如坐過山車的一年；2012年樓市展望如何？
地產代理估計，發展商去年推出了10,000個新盤單位，預料今年推出銷售的新樓盤會達20,000個。
然而，發展商為免惡性競爭，將分期推盤，且不見得會大量推出，割價求售。
今年推出的高檔住宅項目包括：嘉里位於跑馬地的紀雲峰、太古位於半山西摩道的蔚然、新世界發展位於大坑的春暉8號、永泰位於半山的加冕臺，還有金朝陽集團位於銅鑼灣的曦巒等。
但論單位數量，則不得不數新鴻基地產、長實和信和。新地位於紅磡的昇御門已經開售，稍後還會推出屯門西鐵站的新盤，預計第一期可提供1,000個單位。
長實今年可提供3,500-4,000個新單位，除了大圍的名城已經開售，還有位於西鐵荃灣站的新盤，可提供1,720個單位，而位於將軍澳的日出康城第三期則可提供1,600個單位。
預計信和今年亦會推出更多白石角天賦海灣的單位，而目前正忙於推售西九高鐵總站的御金．國峯。
儘管新盤仍能以溢價發售，但發展商在當前的形勢不免感受壓力。以御金．國峯為例，發展商延續去年貼近二手樓價的定價策略，每平方呎定價約13,700港元，該住宅項目由信和、嘉華及華人置業共同發展。
「今年發展商定價不如過往進取，」高力國際的亞洲研究及顧問執行董事Simon Lo說：「許多準買家採取觀望態度，尤其在二手市場。全球經濟增長前景不明朗，加上趨升的按揭息率，難免對住宅市場造成打擊。豪宅方面，投資者信心疲弱，今年樓價可能下調13%。」
Simon Lo 說，買家信心疲弱造成成交量減少，租務市場同樣受挫，業主為了吸引租客，往往主動調低租金。
歐元區的主權債務危機仍然嚴峻，內地的經濟前景備受注視，而香港經濟則面臨技術性衰退。
萊坊大中華研究部主管林浩文預期今年整體樓市可見10-15％下調，豪宅方面，樓價較穩定，下調幅度在10%以內。林浩文說：「如果情況轉壞，政府可能需要檢討其樓市穩定措施，例如放寬額外印花稅，或者放鬆按揭限制。」
二手市場方面，今年將面臨重重的考驗。業界一般鼓勵業主降價，吸引買家。不過，買家仍然看跌，不願入市，唯有在業主減價後方能成交。林浩文說：「現時買賣處於拉鋸狀態，成交量可能繼續下跌。其實現在有不少現金充裕的買家，等待時機入市。」
今年，香港和內地，以至全世界的政策風險仍在，美國將舉行總統選舉，內地的領導班子亦將出現更替，香港選舉新一任行政長官，也可能對住屋政策帶來新的衝擊，直接影響樓市。最近，政府似乎放慢了賣地的步伐，但發展商要有心理準備，可能要面對更嚴的銷售一手樓規管。
