薄熙来和中国的腐败秘密

纽约时报
Bo Xilai and China’s corrupt secrets
薄熙来和中国的腐败秘密
By David Ignatius
大卫·伊格内丘斯：4月20日

The Bo Xilai affair offers a reality check for anyone who’s worried that a rising China will supplant the United States anytime soon: First, the Chinese know that the scandal is just the tip of an iceberg of corruption menacing the country; and second, the leadership in Beijing understands that the scandal could have been much messier if the White House hadn’t kept quiet the past two months.

薄熙来的事儿会让每个耽心一个崛起的中国将会取代美国的人重新估量这种耽心的现实性：首先，中国人知道，这丑闻只不过是这个国家来势汹汹的腐败的冰山一角；其次，北京的领导层心知肚明，如果白宫在过去两个月没有保持平静的话，这一丑闻应该会更混乱。

The story surrounding Bo, the deposed party chief in the southern city of Chongqing, is so improbable and convoluted it would be tossed in the slush pile if submitted to a publisher of espionage fiction. It involves Bo’s scheming wife; a dead Brit who may have been her lover; and a police chief who tried to rat out the boss by defecting to the U.S. consulate and, after singing to the Americans for 24 hours, was tossed out the door.

围绕在薄熙来，这位被废黜的南部城市重庆的市委书记周围的这个故事扑朔迷离，且令人费解。如果把它爆料给一位间谍小说的出版商，它会被扔进一堆烂泥。这个故事涉及薄的诡计多端的妻子 和一个她曾经的爱人，一位死了的英国人； 以及那位试图鼠窥上司，后来叛逃到美国领事馆，与美国人唱了24小时后，被扔出领事馆门外的警察局长。

One China expert likens Bo to Newt Gingrich: He’s a charismatic, relentlessly ambitious man whom everyone else in the leadership wanted to stop before he charmed and intimidated his way into China’s most elite group, the standing committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party.

一位中国专家把薄比作纽特·金里奇：一位有魅力，坚持不懈，野心勃勃的人。在他带着迷人和威吓，进入中国最亮丽的共产党中央政治局常委会的途中，领导层中的其他每个成员都要阻止他。

The corruption that surfaced in the Bo case is hardly unique to Chongqing. Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert at the Brookings Institution, says that similar patronage networks operate across the country. Top party officials use their relatives to collect bribes, through payments to law firms or private equity firms, much as Bo did with his wife. Even the most respected officials, such as President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, are said to have close relatives whose behavior is questionable.

浮出薄案表面的腐败并不是重庆独有的。布鲁金斯学会的中国问题专家李侃如说，类似的腐败庇护网遍布全国。各级党员干部通过他们的亲属，收取贿赂，通过支付律师事务所或私人股权投资公司，就像薄与他的妻子那样。即使是最受人尊敬的官员，如国家主席胡锦涛和国务院总理温家宝，据说，也有近亲属，有腐败行为。

If the party doesn’t transform itself, it faces a fatal blow, warns Cheng Li, another China expert at Brookings. If the leadership tries to keep a tight lid on, the system could explode.

“如果共产党自身不转化，它面临著一个致命的打击，”另一位在布鲁金斯学会的中国问题专家李成警告说。如果领导层试图捂盖子上，那么，系统可能会爆炸。

The Bo affair is one of those moments that allow outsiders to glimpse the dark side of Chinaós economic rise.

薄事件让外人窥见中国的经济崛起的黑暗的一面的一个时刻。

You get the same glimmer of insight seeing a district-level official blow $1 million in a night at a casino in Macau, notes one China watcher. How did the relatively junior official get so much gambling money? The answer, says this observer, is that he stole it, through family and friends.

相同的是，一个中国观察家的记录到，中国一个地区级官员在澳门赌场一个晚上，一掷100万美元。相对年资轻轻的官员哪里得到的这么多的赌资？观察家的答案是，他偷的，通过家人和朋友偷的。

The endemic corruption is one reason many analysts think China faces a period of political instability as it consolidates the fantastic economic gains of recent years. As prosperous as the new China may appear, it’s also riddled with networks of corrupt power and privilege - and managed by a nervous elite that is transferring ill-gained loot to foreign bank accounts before it gets caught.

许多分析家认为中国面临政治不稳定的时期，贪污成风是原因之一。因为贪污成风巩固了近年来的梦幻般的经济收益。随着新中国可能出现的繁荣，它也充满了腐败的权力和特权的网络 - 由神经紧张的精英管理，在被逮住之前，把获得赃物转移到外国银行帐户。

Lieberthal notes the anxiety that must now afflict Bo’s network of corrupt allies - any one of whom could be exposed by the investigation that brought down the Chongqing boss.李侃如指出，薄的腐败同盟网现在一定很焦虑 - 任何一个人可以因调查而曝光，连累到重庆的老板。

Here’s where the United States plays a steadying role for a still-shaky China. When the Chongqing police chief, Wang Lijun, walked into the U.S. consulate in Chengdu in early February, he was carrying the equivalent of political dynamite. He apparently had documents to back up his allegations about Bo and his wife and their cronies. But after debriefing the cop, the State Department contacted senior Chinese officials in Beijing (as opposed to Bo's henchmen in the province), who came to Chengdu and put the talkative police chief on a plane to the capital, where he's now in custody.

这里，美国对仍然摇摇欲坠的中国起到了回稳的作用。当重庆市警察局长王立军，在二月初走进美国驻成都总领事馆，他携带了相当的政治炸药。他显然有支持对薄和他的妻子以及他们的亲信进行指控的文件。但与王简报之后，国务院接触了北京的中国高级官员们（而不是薄在四川省的心腹)。他们来到成都，用飞机把那位健谈的警察行政的首长带回到首都，他现在被羁押的地方。

The United States could have gone public with the scandal and made trouble for the Chinese, big-time. Instead, the State Department (backed by the White House) decided to treat it as an internal political matter involving a corrupt local police chief. Some Republican legislators are complaining that Washington spurned a potential defector, but that’s silly. Using such a local police chief to play political games would have been a mistake, and administration officials made the right call.

倘若美国公开了丑闻，那会给中国带来大的麻烦。相反，白宫支持国务院的决定，把它作为一个内部的政治问题，涉及一位腐败的当地警察局长。一些共和党议员抱怨说，华盛顿是在唾弃的一个潜在的叛逃者。但是， 这种抱怨是愚蠢的。用这样的当地警察局长玩政治游戏，将会是一个错误。美国政府官员做出了正确的决定。

This supportive American role continued through February, during a visit to the United States by Xi Jinping, who is slated to be China’s next president. The Obama White House kept silent about China’s internal turmoil, knowing that Xi’s visit was a crucial rite of passage and that it was important to start building a good relationship with the man who’s likely to lead China through the next tumultuous decade.

美国的支持作用一直持续到2月，在习近平，中国的下一任主席，访问美国期间。奥巴马的白宫对中国的内部动乱保持沉默，因为习近平的访问是两国交往的重要仪程，与那个可能领导中国未来的动荡十年的人启动和建设良好的关系是重要的。

China needs a good relationship with America more than it sometimes appears. Taking short-term advantage of China’s woes would be stupid, especially when the country is making a transition to a new and, hopefully, more open leadership.

中国需要与美国有一个良好的关系，一个比有时看上去要好的关系。占中国短暂的困境的便宜将是愚蠢的，尤其是当该国正在过渡到一个新的希望，更开放的领导。

(译者：如果美国庇护了王力军，习的美国之行就会泡汤；薄一定会“入常”， 以他的性格和能力，在未来的十年会影响到中美关系的未来。美国不庇护王符合美国国家的短期和长远利益。注意：习的美国之行对中美两国未来的重要意义)

(译者：无论如何， 中国的腐败现象已经威胁到了国家政治和经济稳定了。千里之堤，毁于蚁汤。主政者无为而治-不折腾虽是最高境界.现在该怎么办呢？该治理了。)