非常感激雅歌老师的分析和建议！我更看好对油气的中长期投资。
以下是TD的分析，仅供参考。
TD Securities Energy 2016 Outlook
$30 Oil Just Doesn't Work
TD Investment Conclusion
For more details, please see our full report to be released later today. We assume an
oil price deck that is directionally bullish into next year (approximately 40% above
the strip). We have several reasons for adopting commodity price forecasts that are
above the futures strip.
First, and perhaps the most important, is that oil play economics across the WCSB are
effectively zero (at best) at current pricing. Acknowledging that economics across
parts of the U.S. and abroad are also challenged, we believe that producers will act
rationally and continue to cut spending to below-sustaining levels. Using our
Canadian forecast as a directional indicator of what lower spending has on base
production, aggregate volumes could be affected by ±15% by the end of the year.
Next, we believe that most of the negative fundamental and geopolitical headlines —
i.e., the outlook for oil sands supply growth, additions from rising offshore Gulf of
Mexico volumes, and the expected Iranian barrels, coupled with the potential for
softening global demand — are priced in. Lastly, as we have shown in the past, the
forward curve is not a strong indicator or predictor of future pricing.
Meanwhile, since we started writing this research report, the price of oil may have
bottomed on January 20 (up about 25% since). With equities arguably pricing in about
$45/bbl today, we expect investors to have another buying opportunity on a pullback.
We are comfortable with contemplating higher oil prices in the future, but are less so
around the timing of a recovery, given the geopolitical environment. With this stage
being set, we are engaged in trying to provide clarity around how one can invest in
Canadian E&Ps today, to: 1) be positioned for a recovery and 2) not take on too much
company-specific risk in order to be certain that one still owns a going concern if oil
prices remain in the US$35/bbl range into the end of 2017.
Given all of this, we believe that the following themes and items are key for 2016:
? Spending programs trend below sustaining levels in the WCSB
? Conventional oil production declines across the basin
? Slowing improvements in capital efficiencies
? Operating cost structures around fixed and variable (netback impact)
? Importance around capital allocation (dividends versus capital)
? M&A activity outlook and access to capital
? Reserve reports and inventory levels
The foundation for our Overweight sector stance is still very much premised on
prudent capital allocation efforts and balance sheet preservation. We are slightly
biased toward oil producers over natural gas, but highlight pockets of gas
opportunities given our long-term bullish gas outlook.
We are maintaining our Overweight stance and have broadened our investment matrix to focus on companies
that we believe provide relatively low risk energy investments out to 2017. We believe that these names
provide investors with optionality to higher commodity prices but staying power if commodity prices remain
subdued. Our broader thesis remains biased toward companies we see as are best-positioned to weather the
storm of low commodity prices, and are focused on prudent capital allocation decisions around return on
capital (i.e., investment at asset level) rather than return of capital (i.e., dividends).
I am just trying to warn guys playing DUST to be careful with it. 雅歌 is so rare in that he is helping people with his knee knowledge of market specialized in oil and gas plays among many other things. Personally I really admire what he is doing. People on this blog should appreciate what he has done for you to help and what he is. Majority of people here would agree with me on this. He is a great man, period. As for individual play, people should always do their DD before making a commitment. Blaming 雅歌 is absolutely wrong way to treat it. Playing stock is dangerous game for anyone, you should be responsible for your OWN decision. PS. I will shut up as some may think I bombed his blog with posts. And sorry for using English as my Chinese typing is so slow:-)
enjoywork1997 发表评论于
10:30 2/19/16: Commerical Crude oil inventory: 507.607 mil barrels, changed 3.502 mil barrels or 0.700% from last week, 16.900% from
westca 发表评论于
雅歌, dust要割吗? 不想割在最低, 会有反弹吗?
南极棉 发表评论于
回复 'kr2011' 的评论 : That's right thing to do. Hanging on the wrong side of a trend is no-no.
南极棉 发表评论于
回复 'purelens' 的评论 : DUST @ 2.50 is just my guess. You can not play exactly to match a number. I would watch $HUI closely. It is the barometer of gold and silver stocks in general. HUI was in a down turn for last three years. Now it just break out of major downtrend line @158. The breakout to the upside is warranted it to overshoot a bit. Once a trend changed, you have to play along with it, not against it.
kr2011 发表评论于
谢谢南极棉的忠告，不能再死扛Dust了
-秋影- 发表评论于
谢谢xinwei
南极棉 发表评论于
回复 '碧空净' 的评论 : DUST is not going to rebound much for a while in my opinion. The bottom line is, gold probably going to visit $1300 area before significant consolidation or retrace. $HUI will visit 180~185 range. That translate NUGT to 80+ and HGU to 45+. It was in the writing once 1190 in gold holds few days ago. Now gold starts to clime again, only minor resistance is in 1255~1265 area. If it break out pass that, see you at 1307 area soon. Go figure...
xinwei 发表评论于
回复 '-秋影-' 的评论 : 美东时间10：30a.m
purelens 发表评论于
回复 '南极棉' 的评论 : 买了一大把NUGT 在60，等DUST到2.5时卖
purelens 发表评论于
回复 '南极棉' 的评论 : 嗯，这时全割了。。。赔惨了
雅歌迷 发表评论于
已经没钱买其它的UWTI了---UGAZ还会在明天之前涨么？哎----
碧空净 发表评论于
回复 '南极棉' 的评论 : 有点同感。DUST可能是持久战。$4 会不会失守？
-秋影- 发表评论于
EIA几点报告？
南极棉 发表评论于
回复 '雅歌1' 的评论 : First time poster, you nailed many calls on turns for oil and gas. Great stuff! On gold though, it is different animal right now. Traditional supply and demand may not apply here as "confidence" in government is eroding quickly. I am not a goldbug, but people playing DUST & NUGT, or HGD & HGU pairs of ETF should be careful here. The D side is not looking good for next little while. U is the play. I see many still holding on D side which is suicidal. DUST could see $2.50 soon. Obviously it is my guess only. Be careful guys on D plays.
