美国25年的人口结构变化趋势

每个人都在寻求认同,在几十亿的人海里。
每个人都在寻求答案,在无穷多的可能中。
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查了一下美国自1990到2015 25年间的人口普查数据,有一些有趣的数据跟大家分享。

  White Black Hispanic Asian
1990 75.70% 12.30% 9.00% 3.00%
2000 69.70% 12.70% 12.50% 3.80%
2004 67.60% 12.80% 14.10% 4.20%
2010 63.70% 12.60% 16.30% 4.80%
2015 61.60% 13.30% 17.60% 5.60%
相对 1990的增幅 -14.10% 1.00% 8.60% 2.60%
年均增幅 -0.56% 0.04% 0.34% 0.10%
  1. 白人(西班牙裔除外):人口比重从75.7%降至61.6%,降幅14.10%, 平均每年递减0.56%.
  2. 黑人:基本没变化(增长1%)
  3. 亚裔:人口比重从3%升至5.6%,增幅2.6%,年均增长0.1%.
  4. 西裔:人口比重从9%增至17.6%,增幅8.6%,年均增长0.34%

请注意,这里的百分比是占全国人口的比例。值得关注的是:

  1. 白人人口比重的持续下降似乎没有停止的趋势,白人族群感到威胁是必然的,某种方式的反击也在预料中。
  2. 亚裔保持稳定温和增长。5.6%已经远强与25年前的3%。
  3. 非裔人口比重基本停滞,西裔一直在保持高速增长(年增速3倍于亚裔,10倍于非裔),人口比重已远超非裔。

如果保持上述趋势不变,并假设没有新的其他大规模移民来源,可以预测10,20,30年后如下结果:

  White Black Hispanic Asian
2025 56.0% 13.7% 21.0% 6.6%
2035 50.3% 14.1% 24.5% 7.7%
2045 44.7% 14.5% 27.9% 8.7%

西裔人口增速如此高不可能是自然生殖的结果,只能来自非法移民。制止非法移民克不容缓,但与民主党的利益是冲突的。所以我很难相信民主党会担起这个责任。

 

虎啸山林 发表评论于
谢谢HCC的评论。我还是按xincage网友的提议把和HCC的讨论另外总结一下单发个帖子把。
xincaige 发表评论于
很有意义的议题。希望看下网友的意见作个总结。
HCC 发表评论于
回复 '虎嘯山林' 的评论 :

(1): Undocumented aliens are not entitled to receive welfare.

Please take a look at this:
“Undocumented immigrants do not qualify for welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, and most other public benefits. Most of these programs require proof of legal immigration status and under the 1996 welfare law, even legal immigrants cannot receive these benefits until they have been in the United States for more than five years.”

(see http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/20/news/economy/immigration-myths/ )


(2): On the other hand, they do contribute to the system, but do not receive corresponding benefits -- such as social security:
"They are paying an estimated $15 billion a year into Social Security with no intention of ever collecting benefits," Stephen Goss, chief actuary of the SSA told CNNMoney. "Without the estimated 3.1 million undocumented immigrants paying into the system, Social Security would have entered persistent shortfall of tax revenue to cover payouts starting in 2009," he said.
(see http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/20/news/economy/immigration-myths/ )


(3): >>>另外引進大量低技能勞動力美國能消化嗎?

Please see:

“Echoing the Department of Labor, the USDA, and the National Milk Producers Federation, agricultural labor economist James S. Holt made the following statement to Congress in 2007: “The reality, however, is that if we deported a substantial number of undocumented farm workers, there would be a tremendous labor shortage.””

And:

"“Over the past two decades, most efforts to estimate the fiscal impact of immigration in the United States have concluded that, in aggregate and over the long term, tax revenues of all types generated by immigrants—both legal and unauthorized—exceed the cost of the services they use.” "

(see http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/203984-illegal-immigrants-benefit-the-us-economy )

And:

Ben Carson: We need illegal aliens to do the jobs Americans won’t do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0ENYaKCjXI


(4): >>> 川普的施政目標之一

But, did you know:

Trump favors amnesty for undocumented immigrants

On Fox News on November 12, Trump’s son Eric expressed frustration that the media overlooks this:
The point isn’t just deporting them, it’s deporting them and letting them back in legally. He’s been so clear about that and I know the liberal media wants to misconstrue it, but it’s deporting them and letting them back legally.
Eric Trump is right. His father has been crystal clear that he wants all the illegals to return and live in America.

Listen closely to what Trump is actually proposing. In an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash earlier this year, Trump explained his plan this way:
I would get people out and then have an expedited way of getting them back into the country so they can be legal…. A lot of these people are helping us … and sometimes it’s jobs a citizen of the United States doesn’t want to do. I want to move ’em out, and we’re going to move ’em back in and let them be legal.

WHO KNEW? TRUMP FAVORS AMNESTY FOR UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS
(see http://www.newsweek.com/who-knew-trump-favors-amnesty-undocumented-immigrants-395512 )

And:

Trump will not touch your entitlements (welfare)

Donald Trump says if he runs for president he’ll make sure entitlement programs aren’t touched.
“I’m not going to cut Social Security like every other Republican and I’m not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid,” Trump told The Daily Signal. “Every other Republican is going to cut, and even if they wouldn’t, they don’t know what to do because they don’t know where the money is. I do.”

(see https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/why-donald-trump-wont-touch-your-entitlements )
xincaige 发表评论于
喜欢一个候选人可能需要最少三条理由,讨厌一个候选人可能只要一条理由。
所以,这条理由使很多人关注川普,却无法完全拉拢选民。但是由于他的直率,这一条理由就足以让他失去很多西裔选民。所以,我们应该更生动地介绍川普的其他政见。同时,也要淡化和分化西裔的敌意。有些人说白种西裔和墨裔是有区别的,我们应该认同这样的选举语言,还要做的就是对合法移民,包括合法墨裔,要加以支持。
因为,希拉里太低劣了,和这样的对手没法完全说真话。
xincaige 发表评论于
喜欢一个候选人可能需要最少三条理由,讨厌一个候选人可能只要一条理由。
所以,这条理由使很多人关注川普,却无法完全拉拢选民。但是由于他的直率,这一条理由就足以让他失去很多西裔选民。所以,我们应该更生动地介绍川普的其他政见。同时,也要淡化和分化西裔的敌意。有些人说白种西裔和墨裔是有区别的,我们应该认同这样的选举语言,还要做的就是对合法移民,包括合法墨裔,要加以支持。
因为,希拉里太低劣了,和这样的对手没法完全说真话。
xincaige 发表评论于
我们把这个信息传递给网民了,可是那些川黑和希拉里的支持者真的不在乎。那些川黑是要往死里黑美国的,看到有人指出墨西哥夺国和墨黑联盟,他们说我们种族主义。这里有大量希拉里的人想搞自由化和搞垮美国。多得超过了我的想象。
虎啸山林 发表评论于
回复 'smeagolrocks' 的评论 : 倒也不能否定统计学的作用。在样本足够大的前提下,统计结果还是具有相当大的可信性的。
虎啸山林 发表评论于
回复 'HCC' 的评论 : 谢谢您的信息和评论,俺试试逐条回复。(1)非法入境确实会有高潮和低潮,取决于边境控制的严松程度和美国低端工作市场的繁荣程度。但提供的福例及福利核查制度越宽松,对非法移民的吸引力也越大。(2)付消费税不能算付税吧?:)我想您不能否认的是多数非法移民都是打黑工,情况好的也是低收入工种,总的来看他们接收的福利(您就只看医疗费用就够了)远大于他们交出的税收,连美国公民的低收入群体都免income tax. (3)如果放长远看,一个贫穷的社区不可避免的会产生更多的犯罪。另外引进大量低技能劳动力美国能消化吗?美国都没解决现有非裔低技能群体的就业问题,很难相信引入更多低技能劳动力会有助于解决这个问题。我们很可能重复非裔社区的错误。(4)可能(2)(3)应该表述了我的看法。(5)川普的施政目标之一就是让墨西哥掏钱建围墙:)。也许我记错了。

我们的分歧在非法移民对美国有利还是不利上,每个人可能看法会不同,也不见得我们都对或都错了。感谢您分享您的看法。
smeagolrocks 发表评论于
所以这統計里有很多水份。美國不同民族通婚太多,光看看有多少中國人嫁老美?生的孩子能报成少数民族都报。俺大学有个同學自认黑人,俺实在看不出他有多少黑人成份。比一般白人苍白N倍。大概祖上有個把黑人也算吧。08被称黑人总统但他有一半白人血统!英文把祖国叫 motherland 而不是fatherland 为啥血統得隨夫親?

虎啸山林 发表评论于 2016-08-24 10:03:05
回复 'rp2002' 的评论 : 还真没研究过。据我所知,如果一个人有跨族裔血统,一般按主要血统报。但在报考大学或申请职位时,很多人为了沾AA法案的光,哪怕只沾上N分之一的非裔亚裔血统也会给自己安上。
linna118 发表评论于
Hispanic 的人口增长不能按目前的低人口基数计算,有人计算过,2044年,美国黑人+墨西哥人将占美国人口的50%以上。他们实在是太能生了。墨西哥女人一生除了生孩子基本没有其他事在他们的愿望范围。 生了10个孩子,偶尔一个连8个细胞都没形成的胚胎流产还哭得死去活来。 有时候看她们那样伤心就是激发不起任何同情心,常常惊讶自己那点革命的人道主义都去哪儿了?黑人也很能生,但他们很多遗传的疾病以及暴力,毒品致很多人40岁以前就死了!所以人口增长不过墨西哥人!
HCC 发表评论于
>>>我反對和擔憂的是非法移民對美國社會的衝擊。

(1): There is an estimated 11.4 million undocumented aliens in the US currently. That is actually down from 12.2 million in 2007.
(see
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/19/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ )

And, Mexicans are actually leaving the U.S. There has been a net outflow of Mexicans for years.
(see http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/ )


(2): Undocumented aliens pay taxes, too. They pay sales tax if they consume in the US; many of them pay income tax (and social security as well); most will pay property tax, either directly (if they own a home) or indirectly (through rent).


(3): Undocumented aliens are less likely to commit crime than native-born Americans.
(see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/surprise-donald-trump-is-wrong-about-immigrants-and-crime/ )


(4): The majority of economists believe that undocumented aliens are beneficial to the economy.
(see http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/17/magazine/do-illegal-immigrants-actually-hurt-the-us-economy.html?_r=0 )


(5): There is currently a border fence in place between the US and Mexico.

Both Obama and Clinton voted for it (the Secure Fence Act of 2006).
abraham007 发表评论于
其实传统的WASP更惨,这里所谓的”白人“是把不黑不黄的人全算上以后的数字吧。
bigsea 发表评论于
克林顿夫妇不可能不知道这种拉美化趋势对美国的危害,可是为了一己之私,还是坚持大赦非法移民,这无疑就是在鼓励非法移民。族群的品性不可能因为来到美国而改变,当美国主体族群的种类改变了,美国也就改变了,美国将不再是美国。
虎啸山林 发表评论于
回复 '清漪园' 的评论 : LOL, 俺博客上另一个短贴“何处是我家”中就在讨论是不是该考虑第二次移民。加拿大是明显的选择。
虎啸山林 发表评论于
回复 'HCC' 的评论 : 谢谢HCC的评论。也许我没说很清楚,我并不反对移民以改善美国的人口状况,咱们都是移民过来的,当然清楚移民对美国的贡献和重要性。我反对和担忧的是非法移民对美国社会的冲击。从移民质量来讲,非法移民也要远逊合法移民,如果我们扎紧非法移民渠道同时开通合法移民通道,我们可以更好的审批移民,也更好地消除安全隐患。

至于奥巴马遣送非法移民,相信这只是非法移民的冰山一角。更重要的是,关闭非法移民通道是更有效彻底的解决办法。Again, I do support immigration, but let's do it in a legal and manageable way.
清漪园 发表评论于
谢谢红脖老弟的热情邀请,荣幸之至!当第一代移民,太苦了,我已经移了两次民了,一辈子两次已经足以。不过,我们儿女的前景在美国堪忧呀,啥都AA,现在上学,找工作要AA,以后生孩子,坐监狱都AA,咱华人的后代可咋活呀,只有移民一条路。
Armweak 发表评论于
清漪园 发表评论于 2016-08-24 07:34:10
==================
加拿大的护照俺们大家拿吧。:-) 俺可以骄傲一把,把过期的老护照一交,公民卡一秀,就可以拿新的加拿大护照了。:-) 如果你移民需要reference,俺可以做一个,至少可以证明你在文学城是一个受人欢迎的好公民。:-)

园姐,俺们去加拿大的同一个城市吧,这样,俺们还可以一起开Party。:-) 俺们兴趣好像差不多,俺还可以说,俺不会让人讨厌的。:-)
HCC 发表评论于
(1): But -- the overall birth rate in the US has been declining. If you do not include the minorities, the US has only a population of appx. 200 million. It is hard to compete against the EU (population 508 million) or other large countries (China: 1.3 billion, India: 1.25 billion) economically, when the US population is not growing.

The minorities are providing a population edge for the US. Otherwise, the US would have been the size of Germany + France + England.

(2): And, the question is not why are the minorities growing so fast. The question is: why are the whites growing so slow?

(3): And, many, many "Hispanics" are considered to be white. The descendants of many Latin American countries find their roots from Spain and Portugal -- generally considered to be white Europeans. Many of them look more "European" than people from Eastern and Southern Europe.

(4): >>>製止非法移民克不容緩,但與民主黨的利益是衝突的。

The Obama administration deported more undocumented aliens than any other president in US history. He is on his way to become the president who deported more than all other presidents combined. (see http://fusion.net/story/252637/obama-has-deported-more-immigrants-than-any-other-president-now-hes-running-up-the-score/ )

Also -- the Obama administration has the most border patrols and border security deployed than any other US president. (see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/29/the-2007-immigration-bill-set-border-security-targets-weve-hit-most-of-them/ )
虎啸山林 发表评论于
回复 'rp2002' 的评论 : 还真没研究过。据我所知,如果一个人有跨族裔血统,一般按主要血统报。但在报考大学或申请职位时,很多人为了沾AA法案的光,哪怕只沾上N分之一的非裔亚裔血统也会给自己安上。
清漪园 发表评论于
我听到周围不少人在讨论移民加拿大。美国前景不乐观呀,这个趋势30年前已经开始,现在只是预言成真而已。润涛阎在一篇文章里谈到,里根大赦非法移民开启了美国的墨西哥化。
Armweak 发表评论于
这篇文章好! 谢谢作者。

当米国的贩毒黑社会和墨西哥的黑社会组织融为一体沆瀣一气以后,他们的黑手就象在墨西哥一样,伸向政治,经济,警察等社会各个中的各行各业,然后,美国的民主、法治自然就不复存在。从克林顿在法律边缘游走的电子邮件和基金会等事件,可以一窥美国开始衰败的早期特征。

如果到了那是,俺还没有咽气,俺就和老伴打点行装,回加拿大。上帝还给俺留了一条后路。:-)
rp2002 发表评论于
想问问, 白裔和外族通婚比例, 他们的下一代是不是不属白裔了?
大号蚂蚁 发表评论于
难怪反川普的人都打墨西哥国旗,这是墨西哥统一美国的趋势。加上伊斯兰统一欧洲,真是百年反扑,不战而胜。
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