透视数据：川普的实际支持率可能正在上升

近期民主党似乎在大唱“敌人一天天烂下去，俺们一天天好起来”“不是小好是大好“的老歌。仔细透视一下数据，这里面似乎有疑点哈。

最有说服力的，莫过于来自老川“敌对阵营”的数据。请看亲民主党的CNN三次辩论的民调对比：

一辩：H 对 T : 62: 27，

二辩：57: 34，其中到有58%的人辩论前就表示支持希卿卿, biased sampling。

三辩：52: 39，

三场下来，希拉里下降10个百分点，老川上升了12个百分点。这是因为是老川在“丑闻”的压力下表现越来越好呢，还是希卿卿在“利好消息”的鼓舞下越来越差了？

CNN应该庆幸没有第四次辩论：照这个趋势，要是外推到第四次就基本扯平了？^_^

再看号称“Most accurate"的IBDC-TIPP: Trump leads by 1%

http://www.wnd.com/2016/10/most-accurate-poll-trump-leads-hillary-by-1/  

The IBDC-TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll, described as the “most accurate poll in recent presidential elections,” on Wednesday had Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by one point, 41 percent to 40 percent.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2016/10/most-accurate-poll-trump-leads-hillary-by-1/#Dp20QF2b2WMwrBez.99

该调研机构在2004-2012的总统选举民调中均有很好的表现，可视为“中间派”：

"In 2004 and 2008, IBD/TIPP had the smallest deviation from the certified results, and across the last three presidential races, IBD/TIPP had the lowest average divergence. 

In the 2012 race, polling analyst Nate Silver, then of the New York Times' blog FiveThirtyEight.com, ranked 23 presidential polling organizations using his own methodology and called IBD/TIPP "the most accurate" tracking poll for the year."

Investor's business daily: Trump leads by 1.3% (before and after the 3rd debate)

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-leads-clinton-by-one-point-going-into-debate-in-ibdtipp-tracking-poll/  

最后看非主流媒体的专业polling公司Rasmussen最新的结果。有的网友说Rasmussen右倾，不过这样也好，左(CNN)中(TIPP)右(Rasmussen)都齐了。

Trump leads by 3%， 43：40

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct20  

“Thursday, October 20, 2016

It’s too early to measure the impact of last night’s final presidential debate, but Republican Donald Trump now has a three-point lead nationally on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinto”

左中右三方调研结果的相同之处，在于老川的支持率都在上升。大家可以大致判断，事实上老川正在迎头赶上，选情胶着，这也是民主党内部实际上很恐慌的原因。最终鹿死谁手还不好说。不过如林肯名言所述：“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannnot fool all the people all the time.”

静待真相于11月上旬揭晓。