假设20年前都拥有4万元,两种投资方案。
A: 投资高增值但是是负现金流的房子。20年房子增值4倍,房价是原来的5倍,房子年增长率8.4%。租金年增长率6.0%。各种维护开销是房价2%。租金原来只有1000,现在3200。Plan A 利率6%.
数字是假设的,我做了excel表格。如果大家有兴趣我可以用你当地的数据。
B: 投资低增值但是是正现金流的房子。20年房子增值1.5倍,房子年增长率4.7%。租金年增长率4.7%。就是大家经常说的1%rule的房子。各种维护开销是房价3%, 比上面高1%。Plan B 利率6.5%,也比上面高。
如果是你,你会选择A还是B呢?
PLAN A
Year | # House Had | House Price | Down Payment | Rent | Mortgage/mo | Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo | Cash flow/mo | Cash flow/ye | W2 cash | Total cash | Buy House Next Year? | Principe paid | Net Worth |
1 | 1 | $200,000 | 40000 | 1000 | ($959) | ($333) | ($293) | ($3,511) | 0 | -3511 | FALSE | 2024 | $38,512 |
2 | 1 | $216,760 | 43352 | 1060 | ($959) | ($361) | ($261) | ($3,128) | 0 | -6639 | FALSE | 2145 | $54,289 |
3 | 1 | $234,924 | 46985 | 1123 | ($959) | ($392) | ($227) | ($2,730) | 0 | -9369 | FALSE | 2274 | $71,998 |
4 | 1 | $254,610 | 50922 | 1191 | ($959) | ($424) | ($193) | ($2,316) | 0 | -11685 | FALSE | 2410 | $91,778 |
5 | 1 | $275,946 | 55189 | 1262 | ($959) | ($460) | ($157) | ($1,887) | 0 | -13572 | FALSE | 2555 | $113,782 |
6 | 1 | $299,070 | 59814 | 1337 | ($959) | ($498) | ($120) | ($1,443) | 0 | -15015 | FALSE | 2708 | $138,171 |
7 | 1 | $324,131 | 64826 | 1418 | ($959) | ($540) | ($82) | ($983) | 0 | -15999 | FALSE | 2871 | $165,120 |
8 | 1 | $351,293 | 70259 | 1502 | ($959) | ($585) | ($42) | ($508) | 0 | -16506 | FALSE | 3043 | $194,817 |
9 | 1 | $380,731 | 76146 | 1592 | ($959) | ($635) | ($1) | ($17) | 0 | -16523 | FALSE | 3226 | $227,464 |
10 | 1 | $412,635 | 82527 | 1688 | ($959) | ($688) | $41 | $489 | 0 | -16034 | FALSE | 3419 | $263,277 |
11 | 1 | $447,214 | 89443 | 1789 | ($959) | ($745) | $84 | $1,011 | 0 | -15023 | FALSE | 3624 | $302,490 |
12 | 1 | $484,689 | 96938 | 1896 | ($959) | ($808) | $129 | $1,547 | 0 | -13477 | FALSE | 3842 | $330,331 |
13 | 1 | $525,306 | 105061 | 2010 | ($959) | ($876) | $175 | $2,097 | 0 | -11380 | FALSE | 4072 | $377,116 |
14 | 1 | $569,325 | 113865 | 2130 | ($959) | ($949) | $222 | $2,660 | 0 | -8720 | FALSE | 4317 | $416,733 |
15 | 1 | $617,034 | 123407 | 2257 | ($959) | ($1,028) | $270 | $3,237 | 0 | -5483 | FALSE | 4576 | $472,254 |
16 | 1 | $668,740 | 133748 | 2393 | ($959) | ($1,115) | $319 | $3,825 | 0 | -1659 | FALSE | 4850 | $527,152 |
17 | 1 | $724,780 | 144956 | 2536 | ($959) | ($1,208) | $369 | $4,423 | 0 | 2764 | FALSE | 5141 | $592,755 |
18 | 1 | $785,515 | 157103 | 2688 | ($959) | ($1,309) | $419 | $5,030 | 0 | 7795 | FALSE | 5450 | $666,735 |
19 | 1 | $851,340 | 170268 | 2849 | ($959) | ($1,419) | $470 | $5,645 | 0 | 13440 | FALSE | 5777 | $743,982 |
20 | 1 | $922,681 | 184536 | 3019 | ($959) | ($1,538) | $522 | $6,265 | 0 | 19705 | FALSE | 6123 | $841,152 |
21 | 1 | $1,000,000 | 200000 | 3200 | ($959) | ($1,667) | $574 | $6,889 | 0 | 26594 | FALSE | 6491 | $931,850 |
PLAN B 20年后会是多少钱呢?
Plan B | |||||||||||||
20 Years Ago: Year 1998 | Interest Rate | 6.50% | Now Year 2018 | ||||||||||
House price | 60000 | Growth Rate | 4.7% | House price | 150000 | ||||||||
Rent | 600 | Rent Growth Rate | 4.7% | Rent | 1500 | ||||||||
Yearly W2 cash for investment | 0 | W2 growth rate | 4.0% | ||||||||||
Cash on hand | 40000 | Maintenance cost of house price | 3.0% | ||||||||||
Year | # House Had | House Price | Down Payment | Rent | Mortgage/mo | Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo | Cash flow/mo | Cash flow/ye | W2 cash | Total cash | Buy House Next Year? | Principe paid | Net Worth |
1 | 3 | $60,000 | 12000 | 1800 | ($910) | ($450) | $440 | $5,278 | 0 | 9278 | FALSE | 1667 | $22,945 |
2 | 3 | $62,813 | 12563 | 1884 | ($910) | ($471) | $503 | $6,037 | 0 | 15315 | TRUE | 1776 | $39,196 |
3 | 4 | $65,757 | 13151 | 2630 | ($1,243) | ($658) | $730 | $8,760 | 0 | 10924 | FALSE | 2521 | $111,918 |
4 | 4 | $68,840 | 13768 | 2754 | ($1,243) | ($688) | $823 | $9,870 | 0 | 20794 | TRUE | 2685 | $136,804 |
5 | 5 | $72,067 | 14413 | 3603 | ($1,607) | ($901) | $1,095 | $13,145 | 0 | 19526 | TRUE | 3575 | $224,087 |
6 | 6 | $75,446 | 15089 | 4527 | ($1,989) | ($1,132) | $1,406 | $16,878 | 0 | 21315 | TRUE | 4568 | $322,783 |
7 | 7 | $78,983 | 15797 | 5529 | ($2,388) | ($1,382) | $1,759 | $21,104 | 0 | 26622 | TRUE | 5676 | $433,970 |
8 | 8 | $82,686 | 16537 | 6615 | ($2,806) | ($1,654) | $2,155 | $25,861 | 0 | 35945 | TRUE | 6909 | $558,807 |
9 | 10 | $86,562 | 17312 | 8656 | ($3,681) | ($2,164) | $2,811 | $33,728 | 0 | 52361 | TRUE | 9197 | $788,555 |
10 | 12 | $90,620 | 18124 | 10874 | ($4,598) | ($2,719) | $3,558 | $42,694 | 0 | 76931 | TRUE | 11754 | $1,046,699 |
11 | 16 | $94,868 | 18974 | 15179 | ($6,517) | ($3,795) | $4,867 | $58,409 | 0 | 116367 | TRUE | 16691 | $1,533,278 |
12 | 21 | $99,316 | 19863 | 20856 | ($9,028) | ($5,214) | $6,615 | $79,374 | 0 | 175878 | TRUE | 23330 | $2,300,224 |
13 | 29 | $103,972 | 20794 | 30152 | ($13,234) | ($7,538) | $9,380 | $112,563 | 0 | 267646 | TRUE | 34312 | $3,355,854 |
14 | 41 | $108,846 | 21769 | 44627 | ($19,838) | ($11,157) | $13,632 | $163,583 | 0 | 409460 | TRUE | 51663 | $5,264,480 |
15 | 58 | $113,949 | 22790 | 66090 | ($29,633) | ($16,523) | $19,934 | $239,211 | 0 | 625881 | TRUE | 77835 | $7,705,076 |
16 | 84 | $119,291 | 23858 | 100204 | ($45,317) | ($25,051) | $29,837 | $358,038 | 0 | 960061 | TRUE | 120054 | $12,196,579 |
17 | 122 | $124,883 | 24977 | 152357 | ($69,313) | ($38,089) | $44,955 | $539,463 | 0 | 1474548 | TRUE | 185698 | $18,112,076 |
18 | 178 | $130,738 | 26148 | 232713 | ($106,333) | ($58,178) | $68,201 | $818,417 | 0 | 2266817 | TRUE | 288547 | $28,702,997 |
19 | 260 | $136,867 | 27373 | 355853 | ($163,083) | ($88,963) | $103,807 | $1,245,680 | 0 | 3485124 | TRUE | 448870 | $42,684,192 |
20 | 381 | $143,283 | 28657 | 545908 | ($250,749) | ($136,477) | $158,681 | $1,904,176 | 0 | 5360644 | TRUE | 700521 | $67,750,831 |
21 | 559 | $150,000 | 30000 | 838500 | ($385,759) | ($209,625) | $243,116 | $2,917,389 | 0 | 8248033 | TRUE | 1094606 | $100,992,055 |