现金流VS高增值

假设20年前都拥有4万元,两种投资方案。

A: 投资高增值但是是负现金流的房子。20年房子增值4倍,房价是原来的5倍,房子年增长率8.4%。租金年增长率6.0%。各种维护开销是房价2%。租金原来只有1000,现在3200。Plan A 利率6%.

数字是假设的,我做了excel表格。如果大家有兴趣我可以用你当地的数据。

 

B: 投资低增值但是是正现金流的房子。20年房子增值1.5倍,房子年增长率4.7%。租金年增长率4.7%。就是大家经常说的1%rule的房子。各种维护开销是房价3%, 比上面高1%。Plan B 利率6.5%,也比上面高。 

 

 

如果是你,你会选择A还是B呢?

 

PLAN A

Year  # House Had House Price Down Payment Rent Mortgage/mo Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo Cash flow/mo Cash flow/ye W2 cash Total cash Buy House Next Year? Principe paid Net Worth
1 1 $200,000 40000 1000 ($959) ($333) ($293) ($3,511) 0 -3511 FALSE 2024 $38,512
2 1 $216,760 43352 1060 ($959) ($361) ($261) ($3,128) 0 -6639 FALSE 2145 $54,289
3 1 $234,924 46985 1123 ($959) ($392) ($227) ($2,730) 0 -9369 FALSE 2274 $71,998
4 1 $254,610 50922 1191 ($959) ($424) ($193) ($2,316) 0 -11685 FALSE 2410 $91,778
5 1 $275,946 55189 1262 ($959) ($460) ($157) ($1,887) 0 -13572 FALSE 2555 $113,782
6 1 $299,070 59814 1337 ($959) ($498) ($120) ($1,443) 0 -15015 FALSE 2708 $138,171
7 1 $324,131 64826 1418 ($959) ($540) ($82) ($983) 0 -15999 FALSE 2871 $165,120
8 1 $351,293 70259 1502 ($959) ($585) ($42) ($508) 0 -16506 FALSE 3043 $194,817
9 1 $380,731 76146 1592 ($959) ($635) ($1) ($17) 0 -16523 FALSE 3226 $227,464
10 1 $412,635 82527 1688 ($959) ($688) $41 $489 0 -16034 FALSE 3419 $263,277
11 1 $447,214 89443 1789 ($959) ($745) $84 $1,011 0 -15023 FALSE 3624 $302,490
12 1 $484,689 96938 1896 ($959) ($808) $129 $1,547 0 -13477 FALSE 3842 $330,331
13 1 $525,306 105061 2010 ($959) ($876) $175 $2,097 0 -11380 FALSE 4072 $377,116
14 1 $569,325 113865 2130 ($959) ($949) $222 $2,660 0 -8720 FALSE 4317 $416,733
15 1 $617,034 123407 2257 ($959) ($1,028) $270 $3,237 0 -5483 FALSE 4576 $472,254
16 1 $668,740 133748 2393 ($959) ($1,115) $319 $3,825 0 -1659 FALSE 4850 $527,152
17 1 $724,780 144956 2536 ($959) ($1,208) $369 $4,423 0 2764 FALSE 5141 $592,755
18 1 $785,515 157103 2688 ($959) ($1,309) $419 $5,030 0 7795 FALSE 5450 $666,735
19 1 $851,340 170268 2849 ($959) ($1,419) $470 $5,645 0 13440 FALSE 5777 $743,982
20 1 $922,681 184536 3019 ($959) ($1,538) $522 $6,265 0 19705 FALSE 6123 $841,152
21 1 $1,000,000 200000 3200 ($959) ($1,667) $574 $6,889 0 26594 FALSE 6491 $931,850

PLAN B 20年后会是多少钱呢?

 

Plan B            
           
20 Years Ago: Year 1998 Interest Rate 6.50% Now Year 2018            
House price   60000  Growth Rate 4.7% House price 150000            
Rent   600 Rent Growth Rate 4.7%  Rent 1500            
Yearly W2 cash for investment 0 W2 growth rate 4.0%                
Cash on hand   40000 Maintenance cost of house price 3.0%                
Year  # House Had House Price Down Payment Rent Mortgage/mo Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo Cash flow/mo Cash flow/ye W2 cash Total cash Buy House Next Year? Principe paid Net Worth
1 3 $60,000 12000 1800 ($910) ($450) $440 $5,278 0 9278 FALSE 1667 $22,945
2 3 $62,813 12563 1884 ($910) ($471) $503 $6,037 0 15315 TRUE 1776 $39,196
3 4 $65,757 13151 2630 ($1,243) ($658) $730 $8,760 0 10924 FALSE 2521 $111,918
4 4 $68,840 13768 2754 ($1,243) ($688) $823 $9,870 0 20794 TRUE 2685 $136,804
5 5 $72,067 14413 3603 ($1,607) ($901) $1,095 $13,145 0 19526 TRUE 3575 $224,087
6 6 $75,446 15089 4527 ($1,989) ($1,132) $1,406 $16,878 0 21315 TRUE 4568 $322,783
7 7 $78,983 15797 5529 ($2,388) ($1,382) $1,759 $21,104 0 26622 TRUE 5676 $433,970
8 8 $82,686 16537 6615 ($2,806) ($1,654) $2,155 $25,861 0 35945 TRUE 6909 $558,807
9 10 $86,562 17312 8656 ($3,681) ($2,164) $2,811 $33,728 0 52361 TRUE 9197 $788,555
10 12 $90,620 18124 10874 ($4,598) ($2,719) $3,558 $42,694 0 76931 TRUE 11754 $1,046,699
11 16 $94,868 18974 15179 ($6,517) ($3,795) $4,867 $58,409 0 116367 TRUE 16691 $1,533,278
12 21 $99,316 19863 20856 ($9,028) ($5,214) $6,615 $79,374 0 175878 TRUE 23330 $2,300,224
13 29 $103,972 20794 30152 ($13,234) ($7,538) $9,380 $112,563 0 267646 TRUE 34312 $3,355,854
14 41 $108,846 21769 44627 ($19,838) ($11,157) $13,632 $163,583 0 409460 TRUE 51663 $5,264,480
15 58 $113,949 22790 66090 ($29,633) ($16,523) $19,934 $239,211 0 625881 TRUE 77835 $7,705,076
16 84 $119,291 23858 100204 ($45,317) ($25,051) $29,837 $358,038 0 960061 TRUE 120054 $12,196,579
17 122 $124,883 24977 152357 ($69,313) ($38,089) $44,955 $539,463 0 1474548 TRUE 185698 $18,112,076
18 178 $130,738 26148 232713 ($106,333) ($58,178) $68,201 $818,417 0 2266817 TRUE 288547 $28,702,997
19 260 $136,867 27373 355853 ($163,083) ($88,963) $103,807 $1,245,680 0 3485124 TRUE 448870 $42,684,192
20 381 $143,283 28657 545908 ($250,749) ($136,477) $158,681 $1,904,176 0 5360644 TRUE 700521 $67,750,831
21 559 $150,000 30000 838500 ($385,759) ($209,625) $243,116 $2,917,389 0 8248033 TRUE 1094606 $100,992,055

 

 

小Q嗷嗷 发表评论于
问题是6万房子租1800,在哪里啊?现在1%在东海岸都基本没可能。唉。
房博士 发表评论于
怪不得wealthy 要靠cash flow. Rich 要靠增值啊。
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