关于网友看到TD股价下跌后,想买而又不敢买的心态的思考

有网友对我说,看到TD股价跌下来了,很想买,也知道该买,但是就是觉得不敢买?

买入股票后,股价下跌确实不是一种好感觉,但是这又是无法避免的事情,因为这世界上还没有一个股市参与者

没有这样的经历。巴菲特买入的每一只股票,也都会有这样的经历,股价总是会在他买入之后下跌,而且有不少

是再也没有涨回到他的买入成本价。我自己也是从来没有过一买入就涨的经历。

网友说的TD股价跌下来了,当然指的是从9月80元跌到了今天的69元。

YTD,加国股指下跌了12%,是比较大,TD下跌了3.5%。

TD银行投资总回报率

2018 YTD                         -3.5%

2017.1.1 - 2018.12.19      9.98%

2016.1.1 - 2018.12.19    42.44%

2015.1.1 - 2018.12.19    43.84%

2014.1.1 - 2018.12.19    66.35%

2013.1.1 - 2018.12.19  105.28%

2012.1.1 - 2018.12.19  131.12%

2011.1.1 - 2018.12.19  146.89%

2010.1.1 - 2018.12.19  188.55%

2009.1.1 - 2018.12.19   350.07%

2008.1.1 - 2018.12.19   202.24%

以天为单位看待收益的人,相信的是奇迹和运气;以年为单位瞄准收益的人,相信的是天赋和能力;以3-5年为周期规划财务的人,相信的是胆识和眼光;以10年为单位思考财富的人,相信的是常识和复利;以更长周期看待财富的人,相信的是时代和命运。很多事情,不是从学识智商分野,而是从格局开始的。- 水晶苍蝇拍

YTD 3.5%的跌幅无论从哪一个角度考虑,都是一个非常小的市场波动,但是在这个YTD3.5%波动的细节之中上下的波动幅度是12-13%,面对这个12-13%的波动幅度,有的人就会觉得TD跌了好多,有的人就会觉得不敢买了。

从2008年这个最糟糕的时刻开始投资,到今天,每一个TD银行的投资者都有不错的回报,绝大多数工薪族都可以从白手起家,成为一个百万富翁,实现初级财务自由,这是由投资常识和复利所决定的。

从加国市场而言,TD的股票价格波动幅度远远小于市场整体波动,已经是一个最容易的投资标的了,但是它依然超过了绝大数普通投资者的承受能力。

To get what you want, you have to deserve what you want.

The world is not yet a crazy enough place to reward a whole bunch of undeserving people.  - 芒格

有网友问我加国经济不好,房市低迷,利率上升是不是对银行有影响,TD会不会再跌呀?

这种全加拿大都没人搞得懂的事,我怎么可能懂呢?

"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.

Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.

I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.

It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?" - 芒格


一个理性的投资者,无论未来市场如何波动,都是大概率的会投资成功。

 

The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.

But, unlike the lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.  - 巴菲特

 

 

 

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