周三开盘:股市的明天比蜜粘

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八十年代有一个电影插曲风行一时,那以后不久就是少林寺、霍元甲、港台歌曲的天下了。

股市过去两天高开低走,显示SP 2900之上阻力不小。多方上攻有阻力,并不代表有利空方。CNN指数、国债、VIX等不到位,都暗示应该还有一冲,或者至少顶部磨盘。跟一两周前相比,市场的心态天壤之别。此间有川普威胁对300B加税,按照以往股市该跌500点,现在照样上涨。这个心态有两个背景:一、市场对中美G20会见、重新回谈判桌抱有希望,再者对华为断供雷声大、雨点小。二、联储表示会根据贸易战的影响调整利率,要知道圣诞后联储转鸽,市场可是涨了几个月。现在这一针药效不比那时,但是SP从272X(上周一)到最近2910,涨幅超过6%。因此去年圣诞第一针下去,10%以上涨幅,现在6%,以后逐次衰减,大概第三针3%。

下周三联储会议结束,料想本次不降息。今年七月、九月、十一月、十二月有望降息两次。当然九月底国债上限到期,现在华府混战,那事还没提上日程。近期联储会前,股市会微幅震荡。会后两天是六月OE,一个大OE(季度)。本月底万众瞩目G20峰会,会前或有避险盘,另外一张外卡:中方决定元首不出席。会前宣布上会与否对股市有很大影响。即便上会,最好的结果是双方恢复谈判、暂缓落实关税加码。但现在的一些进展并不支持出那个结果,出“建设性”的可能很大。

本月晚期面临月线形态构建。今年头四个月月线为阳,五月大阴,六月应当实体阳线带上影。今年月线阴阳分布有可能六六开(去年八阳四阴、前年十阳二阴)。要是那样,今年下半年将出五颗月线阴线。

展望:论坛诸多股民有过八十年代的经历,从电影插曲“我们的明天比蜜甜”能回忆当年的乐观心态、对前途的信心。相信未来更好,这个心态就是经济增长、股市上升的动力,而现在上层的所作所为在破坏这个信心。“我们的明天比蜜甜”,今天的人们生活在过去的明天,发现甜多了就害了糖尿病,物质生活甜蜜、而生活体验苦恼着。而股市接近高点,暂时忽视利空,近期小幅震荡磨盘,于是股市的明天比蜜还要粘。

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