周末看盘:我们看市场,市场看月底

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近期忙。结两个课题,开一个课题,下周和下下周奔波士顿和缅因去度假,赶在度假前给工作收尾。忙里偷闲看看股市:牛市老矣,尚能涨否?

上周是七月OE周,一般不会走到哪里去。先出来的NFLX季报差,该股跌但是大盘没跌动。周四收盘后MSFT季报好,周五开盘它大涨新高,但是收盘涨幅蒸发,大盘随即走弱。周五QQQ的最大痛点在189,盘势转弱与此有点关系。MSFT季报后的走法是未来两周几个大季报的风向标。因为MSFT季报红火、并且它应该属于受贸易战影响小的国际大公司。与它相比,苹果、INTC等只会比它vulnerable。MSFT尚且没有涨动,其它的不要指望。而针对GOOG、AMZN、FB等的杯葛调查又抬头了。

市场周四周五的波动与对联储利率政策的迷恋有关。周四有联储官员讲话,口气较好,市场于是price in 0.5点的cut。周五人家出来澄清了。从现在的意思看,下下周三联储会议应该降息0.25。那个出在苹果的季报之后,两者连带成为一个大的时间标杆。

情绪指标近期走法偏空。VIX下探13后似乎企稳,周五的走法显示下周它会上测16,对应出新高后的第一跌(有人抄底我不反对)。CNN指数上周最多逼近60,周五又回到50以下。它的走势暧昧,跟五月份它最低没破20有关。下探没有走到位,反弹上涨也不容易有效站上60。国债最近模糊,看来在等联储开会和更多的经济数据。从技术上国债在钝化2%十年利率的关口:因为这个位置很重要,债市的走法让它变得稀松平常,暗示资本市场正在布局沧海桑田的巨变。而近期股债双升的局面会被打破,两者有一个是诈涨。

在新闻层面上还是老一套:三天不打上房揭瓦。中美的贸易谈判进展迟缓不提,下周Muller听证,领导们又要大动肝火,反应在推特股市上,指不定哪个公司(AMZN?)或者事件撞到枪口。市场就是领导们心情的反应:顺风顺水,股市上涨,没事便是福;有谁招惹领导,他犯脾气,股市就要遭殃。下周有人要拿小棍捅娄子了。

展望:下周看来有一跌,VIX上看16。但是联储开会前,股市不出方向。八月初有望出利多出尽的行情,轻的5%,重的秋季行情提前展开。

十二少查问股市:牛市老矣,尚能涨否?答曰:顷刻三遗矢。

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