美英研究人员关于病毒扩散的预测

发一个美英研究人员关于病毒扩散的预测论文，全文在https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf

对于不信谣不传谣的同学，可以直接略过。下面是一些主要结果：
1. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified.
2.  Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
3. If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu.