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2020年5月13日（星期三）, 美联储系统主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）应邀在彼得森国际经济研究所组织的一次活动中对美国经济的现状发表讲话。 演讲定于当天格林尼治标准时间1300（美国东部时间上午9:00）开始。
FOMC主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）关于美国经济状况的演讲–现场直播（2020年5月13日）
FOMC主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）演讲原文
Web Reference :
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/jerome-powell-speech-transcript-may-13-coronavirus-address
Jerome Powell: (00:00)
The coronavirus has left a devastating human and economic toll in its wake as it has spread around the globe. This is a worldwide public health crisis. And healthcare workers have been the first responders showing courage and determination and earning our lasting gratitude. So have the legions of other essential workers who put themselves at risk every day on our behalf. As a nation, we have temporarily withdrawn from many kinds of economic and social activity to help slow the spread of the virus. Some sectors of the economy have been effectively closed since mid-March. People have put their lives and livelihoods on hold, making enormous sacrifices to protect not just their own health and that of their loved ones, but also their neighbors in the broader community. While we’re all affected, the burden has fallen most heavily on those least able to bear it.
冠状病毒在全球范围内蔓延，给人类和经济造成了毁灭性的破坏。这是全球性的公共卫生危机。医护人员一直是表现出勇气和决心并赢得我们持久感激的第一响应者。其他每天都在冒着风险的重要工人队伍也代表我们。作为一个国家，我们暂时退出了许多经济和社会活动，以帮助减缓病毒的传播。自3月中旬以来，部分经济领域已经有效关闭。人们搁浅了他们的生活和生计，做出了巨大的牺牲，不仅要保护自己和亲人的健康，还要保护更广泛社区的邻居的健康。虽然我们都受到影响，但负担最重的是那些最无力承担的人。
个人点评：开章明义，指出COVID-19乃是全球公共卫生危机。没有哪个个人或国家可以置身其外。
Jerome Powell: (00:54)
The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War II. We are seeing a severe decline in economic activity and employment, and already the job gains of the last decade have been erased. Since the pandemic arrived enforced just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs. A fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others. Among people who were working in February, almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March. This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words as lives are upended and made great uncertainty about the future. This downturn is different from those that came before it. Earlier in the post World War II period recessions were sometimes linked to a cycle of high inflation followed by fed tightening.
这次衰退的范围和速度尚无现代先例，比第二次世界大战以来的任何衰退都要严重得多。我们看到经济活动和就业急剧下降，过去十年的工作机会已经被抹去。自大流行于两个月前实施以来，已有超过2000万人失业。明天发布的一项联邦调查反映出的发现与许多其他类似。在2月份工作的人中，年收入低于40,000美元的家庭中有将近40％的人在3月份失业。经济命运的这种逆转造成了一定程度的痛苦，这种痛苦很难用言语表达出来，因为人们的生活被改头换面，并且对未来充满不确定性。这种低迷与之前的低迷不同。在第二次世界大战后的早期，经济衰退有时与通货膨胀紧缩之后的高通胀周期有关。
个人点评：这次COVID-19疫情已经造成美国二次世界大战一来严重的经济衰退。大千投机抄底以及长期投资者要小心行事。COVID-19疫情已经完全改变了我们长期习惯的生活方式，未来充满极大的不确定性。过去，美联储总是能用金融手段成功化解金融危机。但是，这一次美联储面临的挑战不一样。因为，仅仅靠印钞杀不死COVID-19病毒。
Jerome Powell: (01:55)
The lower inflation levels of recent decades have brought a series of long expansions, often accompanied by the buildup of imbalances over time. Asset prices that reached unsupportable levels for instance, or important sectors of the economy, such as housing, that boomed unsustainably. The current downturn is unique in that it is attributable to the virus and the steps taken to limit its fallout. This time high inflation was not a problem. There was no economy threatening bubble to pop and no unsustainable boom to bust. The virus is the cause, not the usual suspects. Something worth keeping in mind as we respond. Today, I will briefly discuss the measures taken so far to offset the economic effects of the virus and the path ahead. Governments around the world have responded quickly with measures to support workers who have lost income and businesses that have either closed or seen a sharp drop in activity. The response here in the United States has been particularly swift and forceful.
近几十年来通货膨胀率较低，带来了一系列长期扩张，通常伴随着随着时间的推移失衡的加剧。例如，资产价格达到无法支撑的水平，或者重要的经济部门（例如住房）急剧上涨。当前的衰退是独特的，因为它归因于病毒以及为限制其影响而采取的步骤。这次高通胀不是问题。没有经济威胁泡沫破灭，也没有不可持续的繁荣破灭。该病毒是原因，而不是通常的嫌疑人。在我们做出回应时，请牢记一些注意事项。今天，我将简要讨论迄今为止为抵消该病毒的经济影响而采取的措施以及前进的道路。世界各国政府已迅速采取措施，为失去收入的工人和关闭或活动急剧减少的企业提供支持。美国在这里的反应特别迅速和有力。
个人点评：暗示美股大盘超买。此次COVID-19疫情是触发美国经济活动大规模减少的主因。应对疫情，美联储的反应迅速及时。至于其它的政府部门，那就另当别论了。
Jerome Powell: (03:03)
Today, Congress has provided roughly $2.9 trillion in support for households, businesses, healthcare providers, and state and local governments, about 14% of GDP. While the Coronavirus economic shock appears to be the largest on record, the fiscal response has also been the fastest and largest response for any post-war downturn. Pardon me. At the fed we’ve also acted with unprecedented speed and force. After rapidly cutting the federal funds rate close to zero, we took a wide array of additional measures to facilitate the flow of credit in the economy, which can be grouped into four areas. First, outright purchases of treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities to restore functionality in these critical markets.
今天，国会已为家庭，企业，医疗保健提供者以及州和地方政府提供了大约$2.9万亿美元的支持，约占GDP的14％。尽管冠状病毒的经济冲击似乎是有记录以来最大的，但财政应对措施也是战后经济衰退中最快和最大的应对措施。对不起。在美联储，我们也以空前的速度和力量采取了行动。在将联邦基金利率迅速降低至接近零之后，我们采取了一系列其他措施来促进经济中的信贷流动，这些措施可以分为四个领域。首先，直接购买国债和机构抵押贷款支持的证券以恢复这些关键市场的功能。
Jerome Powell: (03:54)
Second, liquidity and funding measures, including discount window measures, expanded swap lines with foreign central banks and swift treasury backing to support smooth functioning in money markets. Third, with additional backing from the treasury, facilities to more directly support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments. And fourth, temporary regulatory adjustments to encourage and allow banks to expand their balance sheets, to support their household and business customers. The fed takes actions such as these only in extraordinary circumstances like those we face today. For example, our authority to extend credit directly to private non-financial businesses and state and local governments exists only in unusual and exigent circumstances and with the consent of the secretary of the treasury. When this crisis is behind us, we will put these emergency tools away.
个人点评：一旦COVID-19疫情过去，美联储将逐渐收回现在所有使用的经济扩张工具。即美联储停止印钞放贷等活动压缩美联储资产负债表，其可能的后果是美元大涨，黄金大跌。
Jerome Powell: (04:53)
While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks. Economic forecasts are uncertain in the best of times, and today the virus raises a new set of questions. How quickly and sustainably will it be brought under control? Can new outbreaks be avoided as social distancing measures lapse? How long will it take for confidence to return and normal spending to resume? And what will be the scope and timing of new therapies, testing or vaccine? The answers to these questions will go a long way towards setting the timing and pace of the economic recovery. Since the answers are currently unknowable, policies will need to be ready to address a range of possible outcomes. The overall policy response to date has provided a measure of relief and stability and will provide some support to the recovery when it comes.
尽管经济反应既及时又适当，但鉴于前进的道路既高度不确定，又面临巨大的下行风险，因此可能并不是最后一章。经济预测在最好的时期是不确定的，如今，该病毒引发了一系列新问题。它会在多快和可持续的范围内得到控制？随着社会疏离措施的失效，能否避免新的爆发？恢复信心并恢复正常支出需要多长时间？新疗法，测试或疫苗的范围和时间将是什么？这些问题的答案将对设定经济复苏的时机和步伐有很大帮助。由于答案目前未知，因此需要准备好应对一系列可能结果的政策。迄今为止的总体政策反应已经提供了缓解和稳定的措施，并将在复苏到来时提供一些支持。
个人点评：最坏的时刻还没有结束。Powell 提出的这些问题，现在谁都不知道如何回答。这一切的一切都已经超越美联储被赋予的权利和责任。言下之意，美联储没有能力提供这些问题的答案。
Jerome Powell: (05:53)
But the Coronavirus crisis raises longer-term concerns as well. The record shows that deeper and longer recessions can leave behind lasting damage to the productive capacity of the economy. Avoidable household and business insolvencies can weigh on growth for years to come. Long stretches of unemployment can damage or end workers’ careers as their skills lose value and professional networks dry up and leave families in greater debt. The loss of thousands of small and medium sized businesses across the country would destroy the life’s work and family legacy of many businesses and community leaders and limit the strength of the recovery when it comes. These businesses are a principal source of job creation, something we will need sorely as people seek to return to work. A prolonged recession and weak recovery could also discourage business investment and expansion, further limiting the resurgence of jobs as well as the growth of the capital stock and the pace of technological advancement.
但是冠状病毒危机也引起了人们的长期担忧。记录显示，更深更长时间的衰退可能对经济的生产能力造成持久损害。可避免的家庭破产和企业破产可能会影响未来几年的增长。长期的失业可能会损害工人或最终工人的职业，因为他们的技能失去价值，专业网络枯竭，使家庭背负更大的债务。全国数千家中小型企业的流失将破坏许多企业和社区领导人的生活和家庭遗产，并限制复苏的力量。这些业务是创造工作的主要来源，随着人们寻求重返工作，我们将迫切需要这些业务。长期的衰退和疲软的复苏也可能阻碍商业投资和扩张，进一步限制了就业机会的复苏以及资本存量的增长和技术进步的步伐。
个人点评：Powell警告COVID-19有可能引发更深更长期的经济衰退。未来美国经济复苏的道路漫长而艰辛。V形翻转是不切实际的空想。未来美国经济更有可能面临的是L形或U形的复苏之路。
Jerome Powell: (06:56)
The result could be an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes. We ought to do what we can to avoid these outcomes, and that may require additional policy measures. At the fed we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis has passed and the economic recovery is well underway. Recall though that the fed has lending powers and not spending powers. Alone from a fed facility can provide a bridge across temporary interruptions to liquidity, and those loans will help many borrowers get through the current crisis. But the recovery may take some time to gather momentum, and the passage of time can turn liquidity problems into solvency problems. Additional fiscal support could be costly but worth it if it helps avoid longterm damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This trade off is one for our elected representatives who wield powers of taxation and spending.
结果可能是生产力增长缓慢和收入停滞的延长时期。 我们应该尽力避免这些结果，这可能需要采取其他政策措施。 在美联储，我们将继续最大程度地使用我们的工具，直到危机过去并且经济复苏良好。 回想一下，尽管美联储拥有放债权而不具有支出权。 单独来自联邦信贷机构可以为暂时中断流动性提供桥梁，这些贷款将帮助许多借款人度过当前危机。 但是，复苏可能需要一些时间才能聚集动力，时间的流逝会将流动性问题变成偿付能力问题。 额外的财政支持可能是昂贵的，但如果能避免长期损失并让我们有更强的复苏能力，则值得。 对于我们当选的行使税收和支出权力的代表来说，这是一种折衷。
个人点评：美联储当全力而为，尽最大可能挽救美国经济。美国经济的复苏需要时间。Powell的担保为黄金未来高涨提报了理论基础。
望大千同仁准备好应对之策。The Worst is Yet To Come!
信息分享，个人浅见。翻译不当之处，望见谅。
