中国在南海填岛军事化的起因

美国和盟友例行不断派军舰、战机到南海“自由闯路”是南海军事化和不断升级的标志，据《南华早报》今天报道（Beijing’s plans for South China Sea air defence identification zone cover Pratas, Paracel and Spratly islands, PLA source says），中国已经开始准备在南海岛屿布置战机了。

 

 

美国和西方一直指责中国是南海军事对抗升级的元凶，但事实也许更复杂。据新加坡外交元老马凯硕（Kishore Mahbubani，印裔，他是儒家文化的崇拜者，但本质上是西化的了）在近作《Has China won?》披露了一个不常提到的说法，是他第一手从美国前驻华大使芮效俭（Stapleton Roy.）那听来的。

 

【原文见下】芮效俭说，2015年9月25日，习近平在与美国总统奥巴马举行的联合记者会上，在南海问题上，习近平曾提出了一个比较合理的方针。习近平支持全面有效地执行2002年中国与东盟所有10个成员国签署的《南海各方行为宣言》；呼吁早日完成中国-东盟关于南海行为准则的磋商；并补充说，中国无意将南沙群岛军事化，中国在南沙群岛上对其占领的岛礁和滩涂进行大规模填海造地，中国无意将其军事化。芮效俭说，奥巴马错过了一个利用这一合理建议的机会，相反，美下令国海军加强了海上巡逻。中国的回应是进行军事化。

 

马凯硕几天前在接受采访是重述了这一故事，再习近平开来，是美国违诺，蓄意升级，中国只能跟上。在书里，马凯硕挤哒西方媒体因为只能引用政府线索，也就不得不全盘接受政府的言论，暗示实际上西媒跟中国媒体差不到哪儿去。

 

【原文】

Few Americans can claim to know China as well as Ambassador Stapleton Roy. Born in China, a fluent Mandarin speaker, Roy also served as the American ambassador to China from 1991 to 1995 and has stayed exceptionally well informed on US-China relations. He explained what happened: In a joint press conference with President Obama on September 25, 2015, Xi Jinping had proposed a more reasonable approach on the South China Sea. Xi had supported full and effective implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, signed by China and all ten ASEAN members; had called for early conclusion of the China-ASEAN consultations on a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea; and had added that China had no intention of militarizing the Spratlys, where it had engaged in massive reclamation work on the reefs and shoals it occupied. Roy said that Obama missed an opportunity to capitalize on this reasonable proposal. Instead, the US Navy stepped up its naval patrols. China responded by proceeding with militarization.