\'This time is different\' Four Most Costly Words; 谁敢说“这次和上次不一样”

结庐在人境,而无车马喧,有暇思往事,运笔记轻闲,读客莫深究,细思皆惘然,雪泥留此地,鸿飞海蓝天
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"The investor who says, "This time is different," when in fact it's virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the FOUR MOST COSTLY WORDS in the annals of investing." John Templeton 1933

99年新年朋友聚会,老庐刚到美国,手中没有三瓜两枣,但见同窗们皆开口思科股价冲天,闭口甲骨文统领全球。虽一头露水,但发财之心人皆有之。不免低下高傲的头,求教于好友,试图理解万维网的点石为金之神功。饭桌之上,见邻座好友,高谈新经济,言“Sky is the limit",自叹不如,席间问计于此友。友乃于纸巾上,写下几只股票。老庐虽愚昧,但也知公司有销售才能发工资,于是请教几家公司销售情况。友答曰“This time is different,你需要改一下思维方式,在万维网的新世纪,有销售时公司已是昨日黄花“。老庐乃听友人之劝,入海击流,用几年的实践,理解了 John Templeton 四句真言内的五味。

所以今日,三十年后,再听有人说”This time is different,“,我只笑笑,活的足够长,就能明白这句话的意思了。

 

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