voiceofme: 有见地。但美国政党其实很松散,很难作为一个单一团体去和川普达成什么协议。
****
Thank you for your kind words.
1
对于共和党来说,川普的正面政治影响力,没有他的声音大,他的政治破坏力,是他的声音的数倍。这次中期选举,完美地证明了这一点。
没有川普的声音时,民主党的危害就显现出来(通货膨胀/社会治安/管理经济能力弱), 在当前的环境下,民主党在自己的根据地都会输。如这次的纽约州的一些铁杆民主党蓝色选区,共和党人以外获胜;
川普声音所到之处,让人们感到美国国体受到威胁(民主体制)。 大厦将倾,通货膨胀/社会治安/经济前景这些考量,与"保住房子不倒”相比,就成为锅碗瓢勺的小事,结果,在摇摆州共和党都输得七零八落。如宾州共和党在州长/参议院的竞选中都失败,其中川普挑选的州长候选人,以14%的比例败北,被本州即将退休的共和党参议院成为"史诗级的溃败"。
2
有报道说,即便面临这种现实,川普还想继续掌控共和党,否则,"burns everything down",这与我文中说的"要么让我当2024年提名, 要么我以独立人身份参选",意思类似。
诚信认为和解不会达成, davidinchina认为川普会与共和党死磕,不惜一把火全烧了. 我倒越来越觉得川普在向共和党叫价,把自己卖出个最好的价格。而共和党需要的,是找到一个好的谈判者/deal maker。
可惜,Herb Cohen 先生去世了。按他的话说,"You can negotiate anything (什么事都能谈)",并出了一本同名的书。
voiceofme 发表评论于
有见地。但美国政党其实很松散,很难作为一个单一团体去和川普达成什么协议。
ShalakoW 发表评论于
perty: 请ShalakoW;...你故意来诋毁川普。
***
我有抒情的,有抒情的。
今天写的“分手时最后通牒"对川普是有些残忍,但我昨天写的”分手时刻"却是很抒情:
1
这次中期选举后不久,共和党大佬与川普会聚川普佛州山庄,商讨和平分手一事:川普放弃参加2024年总统大选,共和党财政上支持他当下面临的一系列总统期间招惹的官司费用。席间,在电影"Pretty Woman"的主题曲的背景下,双方"执手相看泪眼,竟无语凝咽",沉浸在深情但无奈的歌声中:
"It must have been love, but it's over now (那一定是爱情,但现在结束了)".
2
Heartbreaking as it may sound, part of love as it has always been (听上去令人心碎,但爱情总是这样).
务虚: 你那最後一幕還要加個3才有點譜
3)除了川普退出,他要全力以赴支持共和党的候选人,換來下屆共和党總統的司法部對他網開一面,或者乾脆給個總統豁免。
****
2
问题就变成,
1)如果川普正式开始2024年竞选,法律将不允许共和党为川普付法律账单;
2)如果川普不参加竞选,法律无法禁止共和党为川普付账单.
但这时候,共和党反而有了先手:法律允许我做,但没有要求我必须做。我决定做或不做,取决于你的表现。除了不参选,你还不能在场外给我们捣乱。如果我们觉得你出场为我们助选都会有反效果,我们有权禁止你助选。
大原则是,你做什么/不做什么,由我们(只由我们)视对我们是否有利决定。对川普下的最后通牒, "Shit power have you no more, take the fucking money (揣上TMD钱走人,你什么Pi权力都没了!) 最后通牒中总是夹杂着一些不标准的法语,见谅。
这个大原则下,律师们解决具体条款细节。
For the sake of the entire Free world, Let's hope Trump will gone for good.
ShalakoW 发表评论于
诚信: Will never happen.
****
川普不是一个有信仰的人,他只在乎两样东西,权力与金钱。
故事的结局是,RNC 派说客直截了当告诉川普:"Power have you no more, take the money."
ShalakoW 发表评论于
诚信: Will never happen.
****
It's not an idea coming out of nowhere.
"RNC chair says committee can't pay Trump's legal bills if he announces 2024 run".
1
I read this news days ago. It means the deal is in place, though it might not have been struck in the dramatic way as I stated.
As we know, Trump has a lot of legal bills to pay, which gives Republican National Committee the power to manipulate Trump's intentions when they have to.
2
I know the idea may sound a bit too far-fetched at this time, yet as Col. Max Radl in the movie "The Eagle has landed" says,
“A wink from a pretty girl at a party results rarely in climax, Karl. But a man is a fool not to push a suggestion as far as it will go."
诚信: Will never happen.
****
It is not up to either Trump or McCarthy, but the big donors behind, the conservative donors.
They have the power to force the deal if they see it as the only way possible to save the Republican Party.
Or so as I have hoped.
ahniu 发表评论于
Trump 依然比。地下室 男盗女娼 强。
ShalakoW 发表评论于
诚信: Will never happen.
****
我之前预测,普京的最好结局是"指定自己的继承者后,俄国撤兵,自己去土耳其治病/退休/流亡",换取"国际/国内免遭追责,战后国际社会不过分为难俄国".
Will never happen. This scenario is truly the best possible result to both Trump and Republican party, but not the best one to America. Especially, it is not feasible, given the personalities of both Trump and Keven McCarthy. Neither is responsible, righteous man. They both cannot realize and hence cannot aspire for such a talk.