美媒：假如中美开战，中国应讲道义，不杀美军不进攻美国本土
铁血战史 来源 微信公众平台2023-04-30 发表于山东
据美国军事与国防新闻报道，在中国有40年投资经历的美国亿万富翁 Ray Dalio 现在特别担心中美战争。他认为中美两国正处于战争边缘，尤其在接下来的18月是一个非常危险的时期，因为美国2024年大选季到来了，此时美国的鹰派会为了提高其在国内的影响力而向中国施加更大压力，可能会采取更多极端措施挑衅中国的红线。
Ray Dalio称，众所周知，中国的红线在台湾。谁都知道，一旦发生“台独”这种情况，中国就会视为战争行为。凯文·麦卡锡窜台时曾强烈支持“保卫台湾”，尤其是增加军售，甚至在它还未动身窜台前就发表这种言论，这都是触犯红线的行为。由此展望未来，美国以某种形式站出来支持“台独”、并在军事上捍卫“台独”、且向台湾出售致命军事装备的可能性较大。
如果此时中国展现出对等的强势一面，那么冲突可能就会升级，轻则导致中美贸易崩溃，重则直接爆发军事战争。如果中美之间爆发战争，那么产生的破坏性后果将比俄乌冲突对世界的影响大很多倍，就如同在世界的供应链和贸易中投放了一枚核弹。
因此 Ray Dalio 认为，中美两国在爆发战争时应在交战规则上达成一致，比如：①任何一方的军队都不准直接杀死对方的军事人员，②不准在对方的土地上发生战斗，③任何一方都不准使用核武器、网络和太空武器等。这样一来，就会限制战争的规模，打一场“有限战争”，如此就能降低中美战争造成的影响。
表面上看起来Ray Dalio的言论是在降低战争的风险，似乎对中美两国都有利。但个人认为，实际上打这样一场有限战争对中国来说是极为不利的，在深入反驳之前，我们先来了解一下什么是有限战争。
简而言之，有限战争是指交战方不会在冲突中投入所有的资源，不管是军事资源，还是人力、工业以及农业等资源都不会全部投入到战争中，其主要目的是为了保留实力。不知道大家有没有发现过，近几十年来，西方发起战争的性质或者说类型发生了一些根本性的变化。过去的战争大多都是为了争夺领土而爆发，这些拥有工业优势的国家控制着先进的军事技术，因此它们发起了为争夺领土和资源的帝国殖民全面战争，比如一二战。
从上世纪中叶，各个被殖民的国家奋起反抗，为了独立展示出了顽强的战斗意志，那些欧美国家再想殖民，就要面临着付出巨大代价也难以控制土地的事实。与此同时，随着技术的进步和普及，尤其是核武器的发展，更是限制了西方国家发动战争的意图和战争的规模，因为这种武器具有巨大的破坏力。
事实上，从欧洲到克什米尔，从中东到朝鲜，核武器让大家在发起战争时投鼠忌器，在不冒着相互自杀的风险的情况下认真地有限制的作战。有限战争就是在这种大背景之下出现的，而全面和无限制的常规战争已经在核武器以及其它军事技术（主要是导弹）的普及和反殖民化的作用下退出历史舞台了。以俄乌冲突为例，对俄罗斯来说它是一场有限战争，而对乌克兰来说更像是全面战争，但本质上也属于有限战争，因为乌军把战火基本都控制在乌克兰境内，并不敢对俄罗斯本土发起大规模进攻，只会进行一些有限度的骚扰。
在战争史上被定义为“有限战争”的例子有很多，涉及到美国的有朝鲜战争和越南战争等。朝鲜战争美国并未动用全力，只用了陆军的三分之一，空军的五分之一，海军的一半；而越南战争，按照美国的统计，只动用了全部兵力的三分之一。但仔细观察美国参与的这些战争，有限战争只是相对强国来说，而对弱国来说基本就属于全面战争了。朝鲜战争对中美两国来说都属于有限战争，而对朝鲜半岛上的两个国家来说就属于全面战争；同理，越战对越南来说也属于全面战争。
从这些有限战争可以看出来，参战的美军有着大量的伤亡，美国也付出了巨大的代价，然后才换来了最终的长久和平。也就是说只有打疼美国，才能换来和平，这与Ray Dalio提到的“中美在台海打一场有限战争”不同。他认为中美军队之间不应互相杀伤，也不应该互相进攻本土，这并不能打疼美国，只会让美军把航母战斗群开到中国海岸线。
中国花了几十年来打造反介入/区域拒止战略，其目的就是为了阻止美军在中国近海肆意妄为，如果没有杀伤，打不疼美国，那么这几十年来的心血就付诸东流了。一场朝鲜战争打出了70年的和平，如今美国又蠢蠢欲动，唯有血的教训让其害怕，才能换来以后的长久和平。
依我看来，如果美军介入台海战争，那么除了核武器之外的所有常规武器尽量都要用上，能击沉美国航母就击沉，管它上面有多少美国士兵，能打击美国本土就打美国本土，把战火烧到美国本土，它才害怕。中国有句战争格言“置之死地而后生”，只有不怕流血，敌人才怕流血。本质上Ray Dalio只是商人的思维去考虑，他们害怕损失，但如果战前就怕流血，那么敌人还会怕你吗？对中国来说武统台湾不是一场贸易，而是无论如何都要收复的领土。
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- China investor Ray Dalio encouraged the US and China to agree on mutual red lines if war breaks out.
- He said they can agree to not fight on each other's lands, or kill each other's troops, he said.
- Dalio wrote a LinkedIn memo on Thursday laying out fears that both nations are on the brink of war.
Dalio, who runs the largest foreign hedge fund in China, wrote a cautionary LinkedIn post on Thursday describing his fears that the two great powers are teetering on the edge of war.
The investor, who has 40 years of experience with China, said he drafted the post after recently meeting with Chinese citizens, policymakers, and experts on Beijing.
Dalio said that in the event of war, Beijing and Washington should consider drawing lines — like agreeing not to kill each other's military personnel directly, or vowing not to fight on each other's lands.
He also suggested that both sides can agree not to use nuclear, cyber, or space-based weapons.
"It is hoped that in that way, if there is war, it will be contained," Dalio wrote. He cited the war in Ukraine as such a contained conflict.
"But such a contained war is not the worst-case scenario because history has shown that when conflicts have reached this stage 1) they have terrible economic consequences and 2) there is a high risk of moving from a contained war to an all-out war," Dalio added.
Dalio did not elaborate on what a direct US-China war that doesn't involve American and Chinese troops killing each other would look like. But in his post on Thursday, he repeatedly mentioned tensions over Taiwan as a dangerous flashpoint.
US lawmakers have, in recent years, reinforced ties with Taiwan through multiple high-profile visits and statements, while Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made absorbing the self-governed island a key goal of his rule.
The US has refused to say if it will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, but sells weapons systems to Taipei.
Even so, "almost all" the policymakers Dalio spoke to are "scared of war," the billionaire wrote.
"Both sides have been very clear that they recognize that either an economic decoupling or a military confrontation would be disastrous, while they are testing each other's limits," he wrote.
Dalio recommended several ways the US can reduce tensions with China, such as inviting Xi to San Francisco for the November APEC meeting, or sending a delegation of senators to Beijing.
But the 2024 US election is likely to spur politicians to lean into hawkish stances on China, as they seek to appeal to voters who want the US to stand up to Xi, Dalio added.
A representative for Dalio did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment sent outside regular business hours.
Renowned China investor Ray Dalio says the US and China are on the brink of war, and that both sides are 'beyond the ability to talk'
https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-us-china-the-brink-of-war-beyond-talking-2023-4?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=
- Billionaire Ray Dalio warned on Thursday that the US and China are on the precipice of war.
- And the two giants are threatening to drag the rest of the world down with them, Dalio said.
- The 2024 US election is only going to make relations between both powers worse, he added.
The US and China are on the brink of war, warned billionaire and renowned China investor Ray Dalio.
Both sides are at severe risk of crossing each other's red lines, and diplomacy between them is clearly failing, Dalio wrote in a Thursday memo on LinkedIn.
"The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk," reads Dalio's grim message.
Dalio, who runs the biggest foreign hedge fund in China and has 40 years of experience investing in the country, said he penned his thoughts after recently meeting with policymakers, Chinese citizens, and China experts from around the world.
The billionaire fears conflict will escalate over several immediate flash points — quarrels over Taiwan, confrontations between American and Chinese aircraft and ships, the war in Ukraine, and threats of economic sanctions.
While China and the US know they need to deconflict, "there is growing belief that the unavoidable trajectory is toward war," Dalio said.
Washington and Beijing are showing they aren't able to talk these issues out, he added. Whenever they interact with each other, "discussions about big, important things have become exchanges of accusations that worsen relations rather than help them," he wrote.
So it's better if both sides don't try to discuss these issues at all, Dalio suggested.
The 2024 US election will also worsen tensions, Dalio predicted. Politicians seeking reelection will likely try to keep pushing limits with Beijing to appeal to anti-China sentiment from voters, said the billionaire.
"The hawkish political influences in the United States will exert more pressure on the relationship over the next 18 months because of the emergence of the 2024 election season," Dalio wrote. "That will be a very risky period because China and the US are now already on the brink of war."
An additional risk is that US leadership is "fragmented" in how it projects anti-China stances, Dalio said. He cited then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August visit to Taiwan. Chinese leader Xi Jinping had personally asked President Joe Biden to block the trip, but Biden said he had no control over Pelosi's foreign diplomacy, The Washington Post reported.
And as both powers look to protect their sources of essential technologies and minerals, they're making countries around the world choose sides, Dalio warned further.
He cited the US seeking to stop South Korean chip producers from increasing sales to China if Beijing sanctions the Idaho-based Micron Technology.
Dalio also pointed to Saudi Arabia — traditionally a US ally — recently engaging in new deals with China and Russia, and French President Emmanuel Macron criticizing Washington for provoking China.
The US and China, he said, are "like two giants wrestling with each other six inches from the edge of a cliff and threatening to pull others into this dangerous fight."
"All things considered, I think that the greater provocations will most likely come from the American side, which I worry will cause a tit-for-tat crossing of the line," Dalio wrote.
Still, he doesn't believe those grievances will push China to declare war soon, or even in the next three years.
"I want to emphasize that by saying that they are on the brink, I don't mean to say that they will necessarily go over the brink," Dalio wrote.
The billionaire recommended several steps to de-escalate tensions. This included having Biden host Xi in San Francisco at the November APEC meeting, and sending key US policymakers and congressional leaders to visit China.
"Have all parties make clear that peace is better than war," Dalio said. "That working on agreeing on ways to reduce the probabilities of having the worst types of wars is a top priority, and that gradually building agreements to reduce the progressively less bad types of conflict would be the best path."
