重读'2024年拜登可以骄傲地退休'

In the course of justice none of us should seek salvation.
We do pray for mercy.
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2022年7月3日在文学城上发了一个帖子,"2024年拜登可以骄傲地退休",阅读者甚少,评论为零。在2024年大选即将*或已经)开始之际, 把这个帖子翻出来,弹掉尘土重读,除了附录中的一些事外,人们还在谈论同样的问题,只是有些问题变得更明显了,如拜登的年龄。在这个年龄上退休,会令人怀念;在这个年龄上强努,会令人提心吊胆。
前纽约州州长 Andrew Cuomo 本是个不错民主党候选人人选。被 Me Too 了。

以下是那个帖子, 链接见附录。
*****
2024年拜登可以骄傲地退休
1
以其政治资历与外交经验,拜登就任美国总统,有两个任务,
1)国内政治方面:换掉川普,并在大选后川普制造的国内不确定中,起到"定海神针"的作用;
2)国际政治方面:构建对抗中共的国际联盟架构。
两件事做得都不错。历史应会这样记载:作为只任职一届的美国总统,拜登是最卓有成效的。
2024年拜登可以骄傲地退休。
2
在(美国)市场经济下,"通货膨胀"是经济规律的一部分,而控制"通货膨胀"是美联储的任务。共和党把责任推给拜登,间接承认了政府对经济的操纵作用。对共和党来说,这应为政治上"大逆不道"。美国政治结构,让美国政府(白宫)对"通货膨胀"更多只能素手无策。(从政府对经济运行的影响来说,中国政府(国务院)比美国政府(白宫)要更有办法。即便如此,面对现在中国大陆恶化的经济形势,李克强又能做多少?)
在风口浪尖上,拜登成了"通货膨胀"的替罪羊,这成为其无缘连任的原因之一。年龄是另一个原因。
3
拜登现在必须坚称自己要竞选连任,否则,只任职一年多就成为失去政治影响力"坡脚总统",也会成为历史纪录,拜登心不甘。但2022年中期选举过后,拜登会改口,宣布自己不竞选连任。
非常可能的情形是,2024年大选时,"通货膨胀"已经不是一个人们关注的问题。 Inflation who?

*****

附录
1
前总统川普有卷土重来之势,但不会成功。他不大可能赢得共和党候选人,更可能以独立候选人身份出现而败选。
2
川普党应运而生。按大康的话说,一个邪教出现了。
美国面临的一个社会挑战是,在川普的鼓励下,白人至上/KKK 等美国极端右派/种族组织会成为川普党的一个重要组成部分,领军冲锋陷阵之人,是那位来自 Georgia 共和党众议员 Marjorie Taylor Greene,与她搭档的,是受华人膜拜的马斯克, who is a fucker.
3
传统共和党只能另起炉灶,政坛剧变会给美国社会带来负面影响。
"旭光时评"主持人郑旭光声称,"川普在监狱里执政也没问题,反而显出美国政治体制的韧性"。奥巴马说,美国政治体制可以承受一届川普,再来一届就会出问题(2)。
郑旭光也许比奥巴马更了解美国,所以频频上镜"美国之音/时事大家谈"节目,对美国政治给出解释的"嘉宾"是郑旭光,不是奥巴马。"言论自由"真好,让王剑,何频,大康(新西兰),  郑旭光有了说话的机会,也让人可以看到"美国之音/时事大家谈(中文)"这个不那么"希尔瑞斯"的节目。

链接:

(1) 2024年拜登可以骄傲地退休
https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/74077/202207/2191.html

(2) For Obama, One Trump Term Wasn't a Big Worry but 'Eight Years Would Be a Problem’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/obama-on-trump-1-presidential-term-is-okay-but-8-years-would-be-a-problem-l8t1lk89#xj4y7vzkg

ShalakoW 发表评论于
MoatCity : ... it takes only ONE ambitious politician to change, or even topple it. This person is Trump.
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I cannot agree with you on that.
1
Politicians' job is to serve public's needs, though their reputation in general is not flattering. Trump is by no means a politician, let alone an ambitious one, and Trump's reputation is much worse.
2
The system by nature indeed has a lot of flaws, but that is not major problem with Trump in. The major problem is the system is not designed for people like Trump who are no honorable men. They despise the "norms" that have served as the guardians for the system to function properly and take advantage of the flaws for their own interest.
3
For this system to work, it takes no majority of the public to be wise enough to see many steps down the road, but instead a majority of the public who can tell the simple difference between good and bad when things are placed right before their eyes, as we can easily tell Trump's Chinese supporters have become fewer and fewer, and those who remain loyal to him have been much less enthusiastic when voicing their support, if ever openly at all.
That's why often the system may seem self-defeating at first but pull itself off eventually. It's a process neither ideal nor avoidable when a democratic system is at work, but it is also why Trump has to fall in the end,"by chance or nature's changing course".
With this regard, I still hold an optimistic outlook of this system, though with caution.

在这一点上我无法认同。
1
政客的工作是服务于大众需求,尽管他们的声誉通常都不鲜亮。川普根本就不是一个政客,更不要说是个有抱负的政客了, 而他的声誉更糟。
2
美国的政治体系的特点导致它的确有许多的缺陷,但当川普进来后,它不是主要的问题。主要问题是系统不是为川普这类没有荣誉感的人设计的。他们鄙视那些保障系统正常工作的"常规", 利用系统的缺陷为自己谋利,而不是为了大众或国家的利益回避这些缺陷。
3
这个系统不需要大多数人具有看到未来的智慧,但当事情明白地摆在大众眼前时,它需要大多数人能辨别简单的好与坏,就如我们现在可以很容易的发现,川普的华人支持者已经变得越来越少,而那些依然忠于川普的华人,如果他们还在公共场合支持川普的话,他们的声音也不再如以往那样热情洋溢。
这就是为什么许多时候,系统最初总像是自己打败自己,但最终会取得胜利,这是一个民主体制既不理想又无法回避的过程,同时也是川普最终必会失败的原因,无论"是碰巧,还是自然变化的轨迹"。
鉴于此,我依然乐观看待这个系统,尽管会带有些谨慎。
ahniu 发表评论于
地下室败等,居然有人相信他比 猴菜恩 还多一千万票。
ShalakoW 发表评论于
笑薇: 换穿铺又不是败登干的!
****
1
2020年大选的实质是:川普是防守者,竞选连任接着住白宫;拜登是挑战者,要取代川普,住进白宫。翻译成你看得懂的中文,在那次美国民主选举中,拜登对美国大众说,用我来换掉川普,你们同意么?大众说,"同意"。
川普就这样被拜登换掉了,搬离白宫。
2
用他人名字做文章,达到侮辱他人的目的,是一个很粗鲁的行为。在某一人群中它是个司空见惯的现象,或它是川普喜好的一种举动,都不能改变"它是个很粗鲁的行为"这一事实。
ShalakoW 发表评论于
回复 'MoatCity' 的评论 :
This country does indeed have the most stable and mature political system on earth, so much as it has sustained the most outrageous and malicious attacks from inside out by Donald Trump constantly for more than six years, and still been doing fundamentally fine, for now. But being most stable and mature doesn't mean being absolutely invincible, with Obama's estimation of Trump's one term presidency as the limit.
Still, the America is much larger and better than Trump, and deserves a much better president than Donald Trump. And all the elections ever since Trump's mysterious win in 2016, the midterm elections in both 2018 and 2022, plus the election in 2020, have proven so, for they have displayed a solid losing record of Trump. The election in 2024 will be of no difference.
Americans, most of them, are no suckers, those who believe otherwise are.

这个国家的确有一个地球上最稳定/最成熟的政治体制,以至于它可以承受川普6年多来从里到外/连续的/令人愤怒的/最恶毒的攻击,而至今依然基本上正常工作。但最稳定/最成熟并非意味着绝对不可摧毁,就如奥巴马给它的极限, "一届川普总统任期"。
然而,美国要比川普大得多,也好得多,因此既配得上也应该有一位比川普好得多的总统。2016年川普那次令人迷惑的胜利之后,所有的选举,即2018/2022年的中期选举/2020年的大选,都证明了这一点(美国要比川普大得多,也好得多),它们都展示了川普在选举时实实在在的失败记录。2024年的大选也不会有什么两样。
大部分美国人不傻,那些以为美国人傻的人才是真傻。
笑薇. 发表评论于
换穿铺又不是败登干的!
MoatCity 发表评论于
Ruth Bader Ginsburg could have chosen to retire when Obama was the president, and it would have reduced the chance of conservative super majority in the Supreme Court (overturning Roe vs Wade). Her personal ambition took the priority over her political beliefs and her agenda. Anthony Kennedy chose to retire when Trump was in power, which helped Trump adding one more conservative judge.
I am afraid that Biden will also choose him own personal ambition over his own political belief and ideology, and will in the end hand the next presidency to his opponent -- thus hurting his legacy.
Only time can tell!
ahhhh 发表评论于
能让拜登放弃竞选连任的,是CNN的假民调,和背后老板的旨意。别洗了。
MoatCity 发表评论于
US is facing historically serious challenges. There is a chance that Trump may go through all his legal issues unharmed (after all the selected Jurors could be partisan, the "republican' jurors choose not to convict in all cases), and he may win the election - there will be revenge and he could declare himself to be the emperor.
Biden's personal ambition could ruin democrat's chance in 2024.
Republicans seem to think their belief and ideology are more important than the democratic system, they clearly prefer believing Trump, support him to destroy the US democratic system.
Really really hard to predict, what would happen coming Nov. 2024.
ALways thought this country has the most stable, and mature system, and now it seems that it also has many flaws, and it takes only ONE ambitious politician to change, or even topple it. This person is Trump.
ShalakoW 发表评论于
能让拜登放弃竞选连任的,只有他的太太 Jill Biden.
也许这次再得新冠后,老太太有所顿悟。病好之后,找个合适的机会对拜登说,"Honey, let's go home." 拜登宣布2024年不竞选连任,告老还乡, 给民主党一些时间来挑选自己的候选人。
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