Jeffrey Sachs 美国的战争和美国债务危机

美国的战争和美国债务危机

共同的梦想2023年5月20日

https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/2x6jggs466xgktphxb7shm4ckzn47r

为了克服债务危机，美国需要停止向华盛顿最强大的游说团体军工联合体提供资金。

2000年，美国政府债务为3.5万亿美元，相当于国内生产总值（GDP）的35%。 到2022年，债务达到24万亿美元，相当于GDP的95%。 美国债务飙升，美国当前出现债务危机。 然而，共和党和民主党都没有找到解决方案：停止美国选择的战争并削减军事支出。

假设政府债务与 2000 年一样保持在 GDP 的 35% 左右。今天的债务将为 9 万亿美元，而不是 24 万亿美元。 美国政府为何负债超过15万亿美元？

最大的一个答案是美国政府对战争和军费开支的沉迷。 根据布朗大学沃森研究所的数据，从2001财年到2022财年，美国的战争成本高达8万亿美元，占额外15万亿美元债务的一半以上。 另外 7 万亿美元大致相当于 2008 年金融危机和 Covid-19 大流行造成的预算赤字。

为了克服债务危机，美国需要停止向华盛顿最强大的游说团体军工联合体（MIC）提供资金。 正如德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔总统于 1961 年 1 月 17 日发出的著名警告：“在政府委员会中，我们必须警惕军工联合体获得不正当的影响力，无论是有意还是无意。 错位权力灾难性崛起的可能性存在并将持续存在。” 自 2000 年以来，MIC 带领美国在阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚以及现在的乌克兰卷入了灾难性的战争。

军工联合体很久以前就采取了一项制胜的政治战略，确保军事预算到达每个国会选区。 国会研究处最近提醒国会，“国防开支涉及到国会选区的每一位议员，包括军人和退休人员的工资和福利、设施的经济和环境影响、从当地工业采购武器系统和零部件等活动。 ” 只有勇敢的国会议员才会投票反对军事工业游说团体，但勇敢肯定不是国会的标志。

目前美国每年的军费开支约为 9000 亿美元，约占世界军费总额的 40%，超过排在其后 10 个国家的总和。 2022年美国军费开支是中国的三倍。 根据国会预算办公室的数据，按目前的基准计算，2024-2033 年的军事支出将达到惊人的 10.3 万亿美元。 通过结束美国选择的战争、关闭美国在世界各地大约 800 个军事基地中的许多基地以及与中国和俄罗斯谈判新的军控协议，可以避免其中四分之一或更多的情况。

然而，国大党并没有通过外交和财政责任来实现和平，而是经常用漫画书风格的描述美国必须不惜一切代价阻止的恶棍来吓唬美国人民。 2000年后的名单包括阿富汗的塔利班、伊拉克的萨达姆·侯赛因、叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德、利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲、俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔·普京以及最近的中国习近平。 人们一再告诉我们，战争对于美国的生存是必要的。

以和平为导向的外交政策会受到军工游说团体的强烈反对，但公众不会。 相当多的公众已经希望美国减少而不是更多地参与其他国家的事务，并减少而不是更多地在海外部署美国军队。 关于乌克兰，绝大多数美国人希望在俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突中扮演“次要角色”（52%），而不是“主要角色”（26%）。 这就是为什么拜登和最近的任何一位总统都不敢要求国会增加税收来支付美国的战争费用。 公众的反应将是响亮的“不！”

虽然美国选择的战争对美国来说是可怕的，但对美国声称要拯救的国家来说，它们却是更大的灾难。 正如亨利·基辛格的一句名言：“成为美国的敌人可能很危险，但成为美国的朋友则是致命的。” 从 2001 年到 2021 年，阿富汗是美国的事业，直到美国让它支离破碎、破产和饥饿。 乌克兰现在正处于美国的怀抱中，可能会带来同样的结果：持续的战争、死亡和破坏。

如果美国以真正的外交和军备协议取代其选择的战争和军备竞赛，那么军事预算可能会被谨慎而大幅度地削减。 如果总统和国会议员只听从美国高级外交官的警告，例如 2008 年美国驻俄罗斯大使、现任中央情报局局长威廉·伯恩斯 (William Burns)，美国就会通过外交手段保护乌克兰的安全，并同意俄罗斯的观点，即美国将通过外交手段保护乌克兰的安全。 如果俄罗斯也将其军队排除在乌克兰之外，那么北约就不会将其扩展到乌克兰。 然而，北约的不断扩张是国大党最喜欢的事业。 北约新成员国是美国军备的主要客户。

美国还单方面放弃了重要的军控协议。 2002年，美国单方面退出《反弹道导弹条约》。 军工联合体并没有像《核不扩散条约》第六条要求美国和其他核大国那样促进核裁军，而是向国会推销到 2030 年斥资超过 6000 亿美元进行“现代化”的计划。 美国的核武库。

现在，国大党正在谈论因台湾问题与中国发生战争的前景。 与中国的战争鼓声正在刺激军事预算，但如果美国坚持一个正确支撑美中关系的一个中国政策，那么与中国的战争是很容易避免的。 这样的战争应该是不可想象的。 它不仅会让美国破产，还可能导致世界末日。

军费支出并不是唯一的预算挑战。 老龄化和医疗费用上涨加剧了财政困境。 根据国会预算办公室的数据，如果现行政策保持不变，到2052年债务将达到GDP的185%。 医疗保健费用应该受到限制，同时应该提高对富人的税收。 然而，压制军工游说是整顿美国财政秩序的重要第一步，需要将美国乃至整个世界从美国不正当的游说驱动的政治中拯救出来。

 

In the year 2000, the U.S. government debt was $3.5 trillion, equal to 35% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2022, the debt was $24 trillion, equal to 95% of GDP. The U.S. debt is soaring, hence America’s current debt crisis. Yet both Republicans and Democrats are missing the solution: stopping America’s wars of choice and slashing military outlays.

Suppose the government’s debt had remained at a modest 35% of GDP, as in 2000. Today’s debt would be $9 trillion, as opposed to $24 trillion. Why did the U.S. government incur the excess $15 trillion in debt?

The single biggest answer is the U.S. government’s addiction to war and military spending. According to the Watson Institute at Brown University, the cost of U.S. wars from fiscal year 2001 to fiscal year 2022 amounted to a whopping $8 trillion, more than half of the extra $15 trillion in debt. The other $7 trillion arose roughly equally from budget deficits caused by the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Facing down the military-industrial lobby is the vital first step to putting America’s fiscal house in order

To surmount the debt crisis, America needs to stop feeding the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC), the most powerful lobby in Washington. As President Dwight D. Eisenhower famously warned on January 17, 1961, “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” Since 2000, the MIC led the U.S. into disastrous wars of choice in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine.

The Military-Industrial Complex long ago adopted a winning political strategy by ensuring that the military budget reaches into every Congressional district. The Congressional Research Service recently reminded Congress that, “Defense spending touches every Member of Congress’s district through pay and benefits for military servicemembers and retirees, economic and environmental impact of installations, and procurement of weapons systems and parts from local industry, among other activities.” Only a brave member of Congress would vote against the military-industry lobby, yet bravery is certainly no hallmark of Congress.

America’s annual military spending is now around $900 billion, roughly 40% of the world's total, and greater than the next 10 countries combined. U.S. military spending in 2022 was triple that of China. According to Congressional Budget Office, the military outlays for 2024-2033 will be a staggering $10.3 trillion on current baseline. A quarter or more of that could be avoided by ending America’s wars of choice, closing down many of America’s 800 or so military bases around the world, and negotiating new arms control agreements with China and Russia.

Yet instead of peace through diplomacy, and fiscal responsibility, the MIC regularly scares the American people with a comic-book style depictions of villains whom the U.S. must stop at all costs. The post-2000 list has included Afghanistan’s Taliban, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Libya’s Moammar Qaddafi, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and recently, China’s Xi Jinping. War, we are repeatedly told, is necessary for America’s survival.

A peace-oriented foreign policy would be opposed strenuously by the military-industrial lobby but not by the public. Significant public pluralities already want less, not more, U.S. involvement in other countries’ affairs, and less, not more, US troop deployments overseas. Regarding Ukraine, Americans overwhelmingly want a “minor role” (52%) rather than a “major role” (26%) in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is why neither Biden nor any recent president has dared to ask Congress for any tax increase to pay for America’s wars. The public’s response would be a resounding “No!”

While America’s wars of choice have been awful for America, they have been far greater disasters for countries that America purports to be saving. As Henry Kissinger famously quipped, “To be an enemy of the United States can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.” Afghanistan was America’s cause from 2001 to 2021, until the U.S. left it broken, bankrupt, and hungry. Ukraine is now in America’s embrace, with the same likely results: ongoing war, death, and destruction.

The military budget could be cut prudently and deeply if the U.S. replaced its wars of choice and arms races with real diplomacy and arms agreements. If presidents and members of congress had only heeded the warnings of top American diplomats such as William Burns, the U.S. Ambassador to Russia in 2008, and now CIA Director, the U.S. would have protected Ukraine’s security through diplomacy, agreeing with Russia that the U.S. would not expand NATO into Ukraine if Russia also kept its military out of Ukraine. Yet relentless NATO expansion is a favorite cause of the MIC; new NATO members are major customers of U.S. armaments.

The U.S. has also unilaterally abandoned key arms control agreements. In 2002, the U.S. unilaterally walked out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. And rather than promote nuclear disarmament—as the U.S. and other nuclear powers are required to do under Article VI the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—the Military-Industrial Complex has sold Congress on plans to spend more than $600 billion by 2030 to “modernize” the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

Now the MIC is talking up the prospect of war with China over Taiwan. The drumbeats of war with China are stoking the military budget, yet war with China is easily avoidable if the U.S. adheres to the One-China policy that properly underpins U.S.-China relations. Such a war should be unthinkable. More than bankrupting the U.S., it could end the world.

Military spending is not the only budget challenge. Aging and rising healthcare costs add to the fiscal woes. According to the Congressional Budget Office, debt will reach 185 percent of GDP by 2052 if current policies remain unchanged. Healthcare costs should be capped while taxes on the rich should be raised. Yet facing down the military-industrial lobby is the vital first step to putting America’s fiscal house in order, needed to save the U.S., and possibly the world, from America’s perverse lobby-driven politics.

This article was updated with the $9 trillion figure in the second paragraph.

 
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