“永远不要低估他们”：一位大屠杀历史学家对德国极右翼分子的警告
德国极右翼如何利用旧剧本卷土重来。
作者：Li Zhouli@vox.com 2023 年 9 月 6 日，美国东部时间上午 7:00
2023 年 9 月 4 日，德国选择党联邦主席兼德国选择党议会小组领导人蒂诺·克鲁帕拉 (Tino Chrupalla) 在德国联邦议院举行的该党议会小组会议开始时发表新闻声明。
Li Zhou 是 Vox 的政治记者，负责报道国会和选举。 此前，她曾担任《Politico》的科技政策记者和《大西洋月刊》的编辑研究员。
柏林——在德国，和许多欧洲国家一样，对极右翼的支持正在激增。
受对经济和能源政策不满的鼓舞，德国另类选择党 (AfD) 在 2024 年东德和今年秋季晚些时候的巴伐利亚地区选举之前的民意调查中的支持率不断上升。 反移民、否认气候变化的政党 AfD 今年 6 月赢得了德国东部城镇 Sonneberg 的首次区议会选举，并在国家立法机构中拥有 78 个席位（略高于 10%）。
该党获得的支持率值得注意：全国民意调查平均显示该党获得 21% 的支持率，高于德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨 (Olaf Scholz) 领导的社会民主党 (SPD) 18% 的支持率。 在最近对德国特定州的民意调查中，选择党已成为某些地区最受欢迎的政党之一，例如在图林根州获得了高达 34% 的支持率。
鉴于该国纳粹主义的历史，德国选择党的进展引起了历史学家和政治领导人的警惕。 德国选择党表示对新纳粹主义不感兴趣，并公开试图与新纳粹组织保持距离。 然而，它与右翼极端分子的联系很深，而且与纳粹一样，民族主义和将少数群体（包括穆斯林移民）当作替罪羊是其意识形态的关键。
到目前为止，德国主要政党——中左翼的社民党、中右翼的基督教民主联盟（基民盟）和环保主义者绿党——都拒绝在联邦层面与选择党合作。 但有人担心，主流政党可能会开始使德国选择党正常化，以建立执政联盟并巩固权力。
“有一点是：永远不要低估 [AfD]。 从来没有，”大屠杀历史学家、柏林犹太博物馆前馆长克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨米勒 (Christoph Kreutzmüller) 说道。
Vox 与克罗伊茨穆勒 (Kreutzmüller) 坐下来讨论了我们应该从德国过去吸取的教训，以及右翼现在看到这种复兴的原因。
为了清晰起见，本次采访经过编辑和精简。
李舟
您能否首先谈谈推动纳粹崛起的一些政治和经济因素？
克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨穆勒
我认为最重要的是大部分民众对共和国的普遍警惕和不满，共和国被视为输掉了战争。
[并且]在 20 年代中期，“嘿，我们正在取得进展，我们正在前进”的感觉相当广泛。 但随后，当然，经济灾难来了。 这个小党长期以来一直被太多人容忍，现在却成为了一个严重的威胁。
这是我们想要思考的事情，因为 1923 年，这个激进的小党试图发动政变。 你知道，他们并没有禁止这个政党，因为这违反了法治，违反了宪法，他们只是被解散了很短的时间。 政变领袖阿道夫·希特勒获得了非常荣誉的监狱待遇，他在狱中写出了他的假新闻书，该书成为国际畅销书。
1923 年，他们错过了说“句号”的机会。 当……纳粹通过斗殴和暴力上台时，他们错过了说“句号”的机会。 [有]一系列执行法治的机会。 当然，接下来就是大萧条。 在恐惧、焦虑和数百万人失业的时期，很多人都在寻找坚强的人物。
[此外]，反犹太主义是核心政治信息之一。 第一次世界大战后，相当大一部分人似乎需要像替罪羊这样的东西。 当时在欧洲，在一个以基督教为基础的社会中，犹太人很容易成为替罪羊。
李洲
是否有其他政党帮助纳粹领导层正常化的感觉？
克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨米勒
在图林根州，自 1931 年起，联合党中有一名纳粹部长。当时德国有不少州建立了纳粹形式的政府或让纳粹掌权。 当然，这使其正常化。
这就是现在（关于德国选择党）争论的问题。 你能与这些人组成联盟并让他们被接受为正常合作伙伴吗？ 现在有一个巨大的理解，或者曾经有一个巨大的理解：不，你可能不会，因为他们不按照规则比赛。 而规则就是我们宪法和法治的内容。
这是真正令人担忧的。 现在的基民盟领导人并不像他的前任那样坚定。
李洲
您认为现在德国选择党和当前极右势力的崛起与纳粹有什么相似之处？
克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨米勒
在焦虑的时候，人们往往会变得更加极端，因为他们害怕失去[他们拥有的]。
我们现在都知道，[在气候和其他问题上]即将发生重大变化，我们害怕这些重大变化。 你现在得到的另一件事……是法西斯主义在整个欧洲复兴。 当然，他们互相支持。
[还有]再次寻找替罪羊，人们忘记了……德国需要新人的涌入，因为我们是一个垂死的社会，我们太老了。 如果没有人进来，这将是一场更严重的衰退。 十年后，我们就不再拥有劳动力了。 所以我们现在确实需要它们。 我们确实需要每个现在就想来的人。 每个经济学家都会告诉你这一点。
[这是]一种非常非常古老的模式。 反犹太主义植根于这个基督教社会。 现在它是针对外国人的，当然，这与很多人所共有的反穆斯林态度有关。
李洲
在某种程度上，考虑到德国最近的历史和正视它的尝试，看到极右翼分子在德国重新崛起，让人感到有些惊讶。 我很好奇你是否感到惊讶。
克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨米勒
不，我的意思是，有不止一个因素。 一是历史早已过去。 人们已经忘记了欧洲的真实情况。 目击者——目击者——正在死去，所以影响也在消失。 这不仅仅是受迫害者的目击者，而是人们……可以说：“看，我的村庄被轰炸了，这太可怕了。” 这种对破坏和谋杀的敏锐认识正在逐渐消失。
另一件事是，你当然可以看到德国选择党在东方更强大，原因之一是在西德，人们的谈论，就像自下而上的谈论纳粹肇事者，关于纳粹意识形态，关于 对犹太人的迫害。 这种自下而上的过程确实在社会中根深蒂固，而且……这确实很有帮助。 而这个过程在东德（德意志民主共和国，被苏联占领）并没有发生，[至少直到]很久以后，然后……在社会中就不那么扎根了。
李洲
您认为德国选择党提出的哪些论点引起了选民的共鸣？
克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨米勒
德国选择党的主要论点之一是他们不是一个真正的政党。 他们是不同的：“我们不像大公司那样做。” [他们这样说]选民忘记了，在[存在]10年后，他们已经是一个成熟的政党了。
另一个是非常强烈的民族主义论点，即我们德国人必须重新找到自己，这引起了很好的共鸣，尤其是在东方，因为尽管可能很奇怪，但它仍然存在于那里的角落里，它有一些东西 这与没有真正谈论纳粹德国的肇事者有关。
在统一过程中，东方人民往往认为他们的声音被忽视了，没有被听到，而他们的声音应该被听到。 这是另一点，我觉得这是可以理解的，因为他们在早年确实没有被听到，并且失去了很多生命。 我看到。 但当然，这并不是支持纳粹或新纳粹的理由。
当然，[他们支持]解散欧盟，因为人们不了解欧盟是什么，也不了解欧盟最大的捐助者之一是德国。
但主要论点是民族主义，而我们不同。
李洲
德国是否可以在政治上或社会上采取更多措施来阻止德国选择党的发展？
克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨米勒
宪法保护办公室（旨在保护德国政府免受反民主极端主义的侵害）实际上已展开调查。 越来越清楚的是，[选择党]在很大程度上或部分违反了宪法，因此可以被禁止。 你知道，这个案子还没有侦破。 （编者注：德国法律有正式程序禁止被发现对国家构成威胁的政党，以防止反民主极端分子利用政党控制国家。）
但这是德国目前广泛争论的一个问题。 也许来得有点晚了。 我想如果你考虑一下我们的机会。 作为一个社会，我们错过了一句句号：“你们没有按照规则行事，所以你们不再和我们一起玩了。 你是法西斯分子，你违反了我们的宪法，以及我们关于如何共同生活的信念，你将被禁止。”
尽管争论越来越多，但这些机会正在逐渐消失。 真正禁止这个政党变得越来越困难，因为他们获得了如此多的支持。 我的意思是，你如何禁止一个已经获得并将获得 30% 选票的政党呢？
李洲
您认为对于关注德国选择党崛起的人们来说，德国历史中哪些重要的教训值得牢记？
克里斯托夫·克罗伊茨米勒
一件事是：永远不要低估他们。 绝不。 并切实执行法治。 我的意思是，看在上帝的份上，这就是我们所拥有的。 这是我们作为一个社会所拥有的唯一的东西。
我们有宪法，我认为这是法治的一部分。 应用它。 这适用于德意志联邦共和国和美利坚合众国。
"Never underestimate them”: A Holocaust historian's warning about Germany's far right
How Germany's far right is making a comeback using an old playbook.
BERLIN — In Germany, as in a number of European countries, support for the far right is surging.
Buoyed by discontent over the economy and energy policy, Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) has been gaining in the polls ahead of regional elections in East Germany in 2024 and in Bavaria later this fall. An anti-migration, climate change-denying party, AfD won its first district council election in Sonneberg — a town in eastern Germany — this past June and holds 78 seats (a little more than 10 percent) in the national legislature.
The backing it has picked up is notable: National polling averages currently show the party with 21 percent support, higher than that of the 18 percent held by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). And in recent polls of specific German states, AfD has become one of the most popular political parties in some regions, getting up to 34 percent support in Thuringia, for example.
AfD’s gains have raised alarms among historians and political leaders, given the country’s history with Nazism. The AfD says it is not interested in neo-Nazism and has publicly tried to distance itself from neo-Nazi organizations. Its ties to right-wing extremists are deep, however, and, as with the Nazis, nationalism and the scapegoating of minorities — including Muslim migrants — are key to its ideology.
Thus far, the major German political parties — the center-left SPD, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the environmentalist Greens — have declined to work with AfD at the federal level. But there is concern that mainstream parties may begin to normalize the AfD in order to build governing coalitions and to consolidate power.
“One thing is: never underestimate [the AfD]. Never,” says Christoph Kreutzmüller, a Holocaust historian and former curator at the Jewish Museum in Berlin.
Vox sat down with Kreutzmüller, who now chairs the Aktives Museum, which is dedicated to confronting the history of Nazis in Berlin, to discuss the lessons we should take from Germany’s past and the reasons the right is seeing this resurgence now.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Li Zhou
Could you start by talking about some of the political and economic factors that fueled the rise of the Nazis?
Christoph Kreutzmüller
I think the most important is a general wariness, dissatisfaction of a huge part of the population with ... the Republic, seen as the one who kind of lost the war.
[And] in the mid-1920s, the feeling, “Hey, we are getting somewhere, we are moving,” was quite broad. But then, of course, came the economic catastrophe. And this small party, which had been tolerated by too many for far too long, became a serious threat.
This is something we want to think about because, in 1923, this small radical party tried to putsch. And instead of, you know, prohibiting this party, which was against the rule of law, which was against the Constitution, they were only disbanded for a short time. Adolf Hitler, the head of the putsch, was given a very honorary prison treatment, in which he was able to write his fake news book, which became an international bestseller.
They missed the chance in 1923 to say “full stop.” They missed a chance in saying “full stop” when ... the Nazis rose to power with brawls and violence. [There were] a series of lost chances to enforce the rule of law. And, of course, then it’s the Depression. And in times of fear, anxiety, and millions unemployed, lots of people look for a strong figure.
[Additionally], anti-Semitism was one of the core political messages. After World War I, a quite big portion of the population seemingly needed something like a scapegoat. And Jews were then in Europe, in a Christian-based society, the easy scapegoat to pick.
Li Zhou
Was there a sense that other parties helped normalize Nazi leadership?
Christoph Kreutzmüller
In the state of Thuringia, there was a Nazi minister in a coalition party as of 1931. There were quite a few of those states Germany consisted of then that had established the Nazi form of government or had let Nazis come to power. So that normalized it, of course.
And that’s the question that is debated [about the AfD] right now. Can you form a coalition with those people and make them accepted as normal partners? And there’s a huge understanding right now, or was a huge understanding: No, you may not, because they don’t play according to the rules. And the rules are the content of our Constitution and the rule of law.
There’s real concern. And the head of the CDU right now is not as adamant as his predecessors.
Li Zhou
What parallels do you see now with the rise of AfD and the current far right and that of the Nazis?
Christoph Kreutzmüller
In times of anxiety, people tend to become more extreme because they’re afraid to lose [what they have].
We all know now that there’s big changes coming [on climate and other issues] and we are afraid of these big changes. The other thing you got now ... is you [have] this fascist revival all over Europe. They are supporting each other, of course.
[There is also] scapegoating again, and it’s forgetting that ... Germany needs the influx of new people because we are a dying society, we are too old. And without people coming in, it will be an even huger recession. And in 10 years, we don’t have the workforce anymore. So we do need them now. We do need everyone who wants to come right now. And every economist will tell you that.
[It’s] a very, very old pattern. Antisemitism was rooted in this Christian society. Now it’s against foreigners, and of course, it’s connected to this anti-Muslim attitude that lots of people share.
Li Zhou
In a way, it felt somewhat surprising to see the resurgence of the far right in Germany given the country’s recent history and attempts to reckon with it. I’m curious if you have found it surprising.
Christoph Kreutzmüller
No, I mean, there’s more than one factor. One is that history is long gone now. People have forgot what it really [was] like in Europe. The witnesses are dying — the eyewitnesses — and so the impact is dying. It’s not just like the witnesses of the persecuted, it’s the people... who can say, “Look, my village has been bombed, and it was dreadful.” That is kind of receding, this acute knowledge of destruction and murder.
And the other thing is that you can certainly see that the AfD is stronger in the East, and one of the reasons for it is that in West Germany, the talk, like the bottom up talk about Nazi perpetrators, about Nazi ideology, about the persecution of the Jews. This bottom-up process is really grassrooted in society, and ... that really helped. And that process didn’t happen in the GDR (German Democratic Republic, occupied by the Soviet Union), [at least not until] much later, and then ... not so rooted in society.
Li Zhou
What are the arguments you’re seeing AfD make that are resonating with voters?
Christoph Kreutzmüller
One of the main arguments of the AfD is that they are not a real party. They are different: “We don’t do it like the big ones.” [They say that to] voters forgetting that after [existing for] 10 years, they are an established party.
The other is a very strong nationalistic argument, that us Germans have to find ourselves again, and that resonates quite well, especially in the East, because as strange as it may, it’s something that still lingers in the corners there, which has got something to do with not really talking about the perpetratorship in Nazi Germany.
In the course of the reunification, the people in the East tend to think that they have been neglected and not heard, and they should be heard. And that’s another bit of it, which I find quite understandable because they were really not heard in the early years and lost lots of their lives. I see that. But of course, it’s not a justification to supporting Nazis or neo-Nazis.
And, of course, [they support] disbanding the EU because people don’t understand what the EU is and that one of the greatest benefactors of the EU is Germany.
But the main argument is nationalism, and we are different.
Li Zhou
Was there more Germany, either politically or societally, could have done to stop the progression of AfD?
Christoph Kreutzmüller
The Office of the Protection of the Constitution [which is meant to protect the German government from anti-democratic extremism] actually opened an investigation. And it’s becoming clearer and clearer that [the AfD] is in huge parts, or in part, against the Constitution, and could [therefore] be prohibited. And you know, the case hasn’t been solved yet. (Editor’s note: German law has a formal process for banning political parties found to be a danger to the state, in order to prevent anti-democratic extremists from using parties to take control of the country.)
But this is a question that is widely debated right now in Germany. And maybe it comes a bit late. I think if you think about the chances we. as a society, missed in saying, full stop, “You are not playing according to the rules, so you don’t play with us anymore. You are fascist and you are against our Constitution, and our beliefs on how to live together, you are to be prohibited.”
Those chances are kind of fading, even though the arguments are growing. [It’s] ever more difficult to really prohibit this party because they’re gaining so much support. I mean, how do you then prohibit a party that has got, and will gain 30 percent of the votes?
Li Zhou
What lessons do you think are important for people watching the rise of the AfD to keep in mind from German history?
Christoph Kreutzmüller
One thing is: Never underestimate them. Never. And do enforce the rule of law. I mean, that’s what we’ve got, for God’s sake. That’s the only thing we’ve got as a society.
We’ve got the Constitution, which I see as part of the rule of law. Apply it. And that applies for the Federal Republic of Germany, as well as the United States of America.
