联合国新闻/David Mottershead 前罂粟种植农在阿富汗楠格哈尔省转种西红柿。
2023年11月5日
联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室今天发布的一份最新研究简报显示，在阿富汗事实当局于2022年4月实施毒品禁令之后，该国的罂粟种植估计暴跌了95%，鸦片经济的近乎全面萎缩预计将产生深远的后果。
毒品和犯罪问题办公室的研究指出，在阿富汗全国各地，鸦片种植面积从23.3万公顷下降到2023年的接近一万公顷，这导致鸦片供应量从2022年的6200吨减少到2023年的333吨，降幅达95%。
对许多依靠种植鸦片获得收入的脆弱农村社区而言，这种急剧的减少产生了直接的人道主义后果。农民向贸易商出售种植收成所得从2022年估计的13.6亿美元下降到2023年的1.1亿美元，降幅超过92%。
产生经济后果
数据显示，2023年之前，阿富汗仅阿片剂的出口额就经常超过该国合法出口的商品和服务的总价值。而在2023年，其鸦片经济总体上萎缩了90%，这预计将在更大范围内影响阿富汗经济。
据调查，该国许多农民转而种植小麦，法拉省、希尔曼德省、坎大哈省和楠格哈尔省的谷物种植总量增加了16万公顷。虽然小麦种植可能在一定程度上缓解粮食不安全，但这种作物产生的收入比鸦片少得多。2023年，这四个省的农民因转种小麦而损失了约十亿美元的潜在收入。
毒品和犯罪问题办公室执行主任瓦利（Ghada Waly）认为，对于打击非法鸦片市场，并消除其在地方和全球层面造成的损害而言，现在迎来了一个能够“取得长期成果的真正机会”。但她同时提醒，为了最终取得积极和可持续的结果，需要应对一些重大的后果和风险，这对阿富汗人民来说尤其如此。
投资可持续生计
瓦利强调，当前，阿富汗人民需要紧急的人道主义援助，以满足他们最紧迫的需求，并缓解收入损失带来的冲击，同时拯救生命；而在未来一段时间，阿富汗还迫切需要在可持续生计方面进行强有力的投资，为阿富汗农民提供远离鸦片的机会。
联合国秘书长阿富汗问题特别代表、联合国阿富汗援助团团长奥通巴耶娃（Roza Otunbayeva）同样指出，阿富汗近80%的人口依靠农业为生，而且该国已经面临严重的水资源短缺挑战。因此，可持续的替代发展努力必须以“抗旱农业活动与有效保护和利用资源”为导向。
防止有害替代品
毒品和犯罪问题办公室还指出一个问题：在阿富汗以外，虽然海洛因的减少可能会致其贩运和使用的降低，但也可能会刺激有害替代品的出现，如芬太尼和其他合成阿片类药物。
缉毒数据表明，贸易商正在出售过去通过创纪录的收成所得的鸦片库存，以应对2023年的短缺，而海洛因的加工量已经减少。但该地区其他毒品，如甲基苯丙胺的贩运激增。
研究还指出，尽管阿富汗境内阿片剂的使用率很高，但循证治疗的选择仍然有限。因此，需要将循证治疗纳入公共卫生措施和援助当中，包括要防止阿片剂成瘾者转而使用可能更为有害的毒品。
Opium cultivation declines by 95 per cent in Afghanistan: UN survey
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143232
UNODC
5 November 2023
Opium poppy production in Afghanistan has plummeted since the de facto authorities imposed a drug ban last year, new UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) data reveals.
According to the Afghanistan Opium Survey 2023, released by the agency on Sunday, the supply of opium declined by an estimated 95 per cent, falling from 6,200 tons in 2022 to 333 tons in 2023, corresponding to a fall in the area under cultivation, from 233,000 hectares to just 10,800 hectares over the same period.
The near-total contraction of the opiate economy is expected to have far-reaching consequences, UNODC said, highlighting the urgent need for alternative development support for rural communities to build an opium-free future for the Afghan people.
“This presents a real opportunity to build towards long-term results against the illicit opium market and the damage it causes both locally and globally,” said Ghada Waly, UNODC Executive Director.
“At the same time, there are important consequences and risks that need to be addressed for an outcome that is ultimately positive and sustainable, especially for the people of Afghanistan,” she added.
Humanitarian consequences
The survey noted the sharp reduction has had immediate humanitarian consequences for many vulnerable rural communities who relied on income from cultivating opium.
Farmers’ income from selling the opium harvested in 2023 to traders fell by more than 92 per cent from an estimated $1,360 million for the 2022 harvest to $110 million in 2023, the survey added.
“Today, Afghanistan’s people need urgent humanitarian assistance to meet their most immediate needs, to absorb the shock of lost income and to save lives,” Ms. Waly said, noting that over the coming months, the country will require strong investment in sustainable livelihoods, to provide farmers with opportunities away from opium.
Treatment options limited
UNODC also emphasized that though there are high levels of opiate use within Afghanistan, evidence-based treatment options remain limited.
It called for evidence-based treatment to be integrated in public health measures and assistance, including to prevent people with opiate use disorders turning to potentially even more harmful substances.
Beyond Afghanistan
Beyond Afghanistan, less heroin may lead to reduced trafficking and use, or it could spur the emergence of harmful alternatives, such as fentanyl and other synthetic opioids, UNODC warned.
Data on seizures indicate that traders are selling off their opium inventories from past record harvests to weather the shortfall in 2023, while heroin processing has decreased.
However, trafficking in other drugs, namely methamphetamine, has surged in the region.
