中国未来五年对全球经济增长的贡献超过G-7总和
【彭博】-- 彭博使用国际货币基金组织(IMF)的预测计算得出，未来五年，中国将是全球经济增长的最大功臣，其份额大于所有七国集团(G-7)的总和。
从今年到2029年，中国将佔全球新增经济活动的21%左右。相较之下，G-7约占20%，美国则是接近12%。
总体而言，全球75%的经济增长料将集中在20个国家，其中一半以上集中在前四名：中国、印度、美国和印尼。印度在未来五年内料将贡献约14%。
尽管美国和中国都是全球经济增长的重要推动力，但它们的财政政策和债务负担被视为稳定的长期风险。彭博经济研究预测，未来几年，以购买力平价计算，印度可能取代中国，成为全球增长的领头羊。
China Outweighs G-7 as Leading Driver of Global Economic Growth
, Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share bigger than all Group of Seven countries combined, according to Bloomberg calculations using International Monetary Fund forecasts.
China will account for about 21% of the world’s new economic activity from this year through 2029. That compares with 20% for the G-7, and almost double the nearly 12% for the US.
In total, 75% of global growth is expected to be concentrated in 20 countries, and over half in the top four: China, India, the US and Indonesia. India is expected to contribute about 14% over the next five years, up from almost 13% in the 2023-2028 period.
While the US and China are both big drivers of global growth, their fiscal policy and debt loads are seen as long-term risks to stability. Over the next few years, Bloomberg Economics projects that India could overtake China as the global growth leader on a purchasing power parity basis.
G-7 members Canada and Italy are expected to contribute less than 1% — a smaller amount compared to some much poorer countries such as Bangladesh or Egypt, where population growth is driving much of that activity.
