杰弗里·萨克斯：美国的体系出了问题。 而在人性中
这位著名经济学家与《国家报》谈论气候变化的风险、可持续发展的重要性以及为什么欧洲应该关注非洲的教育而不是乌克兰的战争
杰弗里·萨克斯 (Jeffrey Sachs) 于 2022 年 6 月 13 日在马德里。
伯纳冈萨雷斯港 2022 年 6 月 22 日
杰弗里·萨克斯 (Jeffrey Sachs) 因其关于贫困和全球化的书籍而成为世界上最受欢迎的经济学家之一，这些书籍基于他在哥伦比亚大学的研究以及他为联合国提供的有关如何应对气候变化和实现可持续发展的咨询工作。 这位 67 岁的老人最近在气温飙升至 41°C（105°F）的马德里，正是为了谈论这个问题：我们在应对全球变暖方面是如何落后的。 他说，我们不应该关注乌克兰战争，而应该解决真正的优先事项。 在西班牙首都，他参加了西班牙可持续发展网络组织的活动。
问题。 您在热浪中来到马德里，直接感受到酷热。 你感觉如何？
回答。 是的，天气很热，但在某些地方，它是致命的。 今年春天，印度部分地区有 50 摄氏度的天气。 这也是人类活动已经使地球变暖程度的一个迹象。 我们知道，现在地球的平均温度比过去一万年中的任何时候都要温暖。 我们知道，我们即将超过我们在巴黎同意的 1.5 度限制。 我们正走在一条极其危险的道路上。 现在的优势是对于该做什么有科学的明确性。 我们必须在本世纪中叶之前快速实现能源系统脱碳。 第二个好消息是，实现这一点的技术成本已经下降了 100 倍。 因此，做我们需要做的事情实际上是完全合理的。 所以人类的问题是，我们是否完全理性？
问：我们会吗？
答：这就是斗争：我们的理性。 气候变暖有可能摧毁热带雨林，雨林已接近临界点。 许多物种正走向边缘或灭绝。 许多生态系统正在崩溃。 所以这并不是我们在外面行走时感觉有多热。 这正在改变地球的整体运作方式。 所谓的海洋环流正在减慢。 存在如此多的风险和临界点。 北极海冰的融化意味着地球不再从冰反射阳光，而是将阳光吸收到海洋中。 永久冻土的融化是另一个临界点，因为它可能释放出储存在冰下的大量甲烷和二氧化碳。 在很短的时间内，我们正在以一种我们自己都没有意识到的方式改变着这个星球。 当哥伦比亚大学的科学家每天告诉你：‘这比我们想象的更糟糕，萨克斯先生。 速度越来越快，很危险！” 这足以让你精神崩溃。
我们已做好战斗准备，但发现合作极其困难
问：几年前，您曾说过实现可持续发展目标（SDG）相当于肯尼迪时代征服月球。 但我们还没有到达那个月球。
答：最大的挑战是让我们的头脑足够清晰，能够做正确的事情。 我们并不缺乏解决方案。 我们并不缺乏这个需要。 我们甚至不缺乏基本的价值观。 但我们总是分心并陷入最糟糕的冲动。 现在是欧洲战争。 这是多么悲剧和浪费时间啊！ 我们本可以与俄罗斯谈判并避免这场战争。 但我们彼此之间的沟通太糟糕了，现在这是毁灭性的。 如此多的人死亡、如此多的破坏、如此多的移民、如此多的金钱浪费。 我的政府刚刚投票决定向乌克兰提供 400 亿美元的紧急援助。 如果我曾经说过为可持续发展投入 400 亿美元，我就会被华盛顿嘲笑。 “萨克斯先生，我们怎么能浪费这笔钱呢？”但是为了战争，他们就这么做了。 这就是混乱。 这是一种原始思维。
问：您真的认为战争本可以避免吗？
答：绝对可以。 北约不断向东扩张，特别是进入高度敏感的黑海地区。 [时任联合国秘书长]科菲·安南在 2000 年请我就可持续发展目标向联合国提供建议。 但随后 9/11 事件发生，美国表示现在我们将发动一场全球反恐战争。 那一刻我想：“这太愚蠢了。”我们真的必须入侵阿富汗吗？ 伊拉克？ 推翻叙利亚政权？ 利比亚？ 这真的是个好主意吗？ 嗯，他们做到了这一切。 在经历了所有这些战斗之后，美国在这些战争中浪费了数万亿美元，千年发展目标（联合国在 2015 年制定的国际发展目标）在哪里？ 好吧，千年发展目标被抛在了后面。
问：所以总是有借口避免采取行动。
A. 智力有问题
美国的政治制度。 在我们的人性中。 我们已做好战斗准备，但发现合作极其困难。 我们准备好在战斗中投入武器和生命。 但对和平与发展的投资却备受争议。 这没有道理。 但事实就是这样。
问：资本主义失败了吗？
答：资本主义有很多不同的含义。 这是一个包含社会民主主义和纯粹市场资本主义的大术语。 这尤其失败了很多次，因为它导致了许多社会不平等和环境危机。 市场不仅没有解决这些问题，反而加剧了这些问题。 但像苏联那样取消市场是一场灾难。 所以我们正在寻找的是混合的东西。 这是一个拥有市场、政府、公民社会和一套明确道德规范的经济体。 而且它应该是环境可持续的。 社会民主主义比盎格鲁-撒克逊市场模式运作得更好。
问：无论如何，我们已经看到全球市场比政府更强大。
答：嗯，这里面还有很多复杂的事情。 很长一段时间，我们在所谓的西方世界争论这个问题，现在我们面临着更多的模式。 中国思考这些问题的方式确实很不一样。 撒哈拉以南非洲面临着一系列完全不同的挑战，也是殖民时代的长期遗产，导致非洲大陆的大部分地区甚至没有基本的基础设施和教育。 在一个相互联系的世界中，我们需要大量的全球合作，以确保地球上的每个地区都找到自己的位置、角色和通往体面生活的道路。 这是我几十年来一直致力于的事情。 世界上没有任何一个地方不担心这一系列问题。 但不幸的是，“我们与他们”的心态深深植根于我们的政治和心灵中，以至于人们对全球合作的想法抱有很大的怀疑。
问：如果我们无法实现可持续发展目标，25 年后世界会是什么样子？
答：风险有很多种，你无法预测危险会如何显现。 在撒哈拉以南非洲，贫困极其严重，气候变化极其危险，同时人口增长速度非常快。 当非洲有 30 亿人生活在极其不稳定的环境中，而欧盟的人口还不到 5 亿时，这对欧洲意味着什么？ 我们需要提前思考，这样我们就不必最终回答这个问题。 我们应该在今天、现在就进行投资。 欧盟的首要任务不应该是乌克兰战争，这应该在谈判桌上解决，不是通过增加军事预算，而是通过确保非洲每个孩子现在都能上学。 它的成本并不高，但却会改变世界的未来。 如果孩子们都能上学，非洲就会有经济，就会有就业机会。 这是现在最重要的事情。
Jeffrey Sachs: Something is wrong with the American system. And in human nature
The renowned economist talks to EL PAÍS about the risks of climate change, the importance of sustainable development and why Europe should focus on education in Africa, not the war in Ukraine
Jeffrey Sachs in Madrid, on June 13， .
Jeffrey Sachs is one of the most popular economists in the world for his books on poverty and globalization, which are based on his research at Columbia University and his advisory work for the United Nations on how to combat climate change and achieve sustainable development. The 67-year-old was recently in Madrid, where the temperature had soared to 41ºC (105ºF), precisely to talk about this issue: how we are lagging in the fight against global warming. Instead of focusing on the war in Ukraine, he says, we should address the real priorities. In the Spanish capital, he took part in an event organized by the Spanish Network for Sustainable Development.
Question. You have come to Madrid in the middle of a heatwave and are experiencing extreme heat directly. How do you feel?
Answer. It’s hot, yes, but in some places, it’s deadly. There were 50ºC days in parts of India this spring. It’s also a sign of how much human activity has already warmed the planet. We know that on average Earth is warmer now than at any time in the past 10,000 years. We know that we are about to exceed the 1.5-degree limit that we agreed to in Paris. We’re on an extremely dangerous path. The advantage now is there is scientific clarity about what to do. We have to decarbonize the energy system fast by mid-century. And the second piece of good news is that the technology to do that has come down in cost 100-fold. So it’s actually perfectly reasonable to do what we need to do. So the question for humanity is, are we perfectly reasonable or not?
Q. And will we be?
A. That is the struggle: our rationality. Warming threatens to destroy the rainforest, which is close to a tipping point. Many species are going to the edge or to extinction. Many ecosystems are collapsing. So this isn’t how hot we feel walking outside. This is changing the way the Earth in its entirety is working. The so-called ocean circulation is slowing down. There are so many risks and tipping points. The melting of the sea ice in the Arctic means that the planet rather than reflecting sunshine from the ice, absorbs the sunshine into the ocean. The melting of the permafrost is another tipping point because it could release huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide that were stored under the ice. In a short period of time, we’re changing the planet in ways that we don’t even recognize. When scientists are telling you every day at Columbia University: ‘This is worse than we thought, Mr. Sachs. It’s accelerating, it’s dangerous!” It’s enough to make you a nervous wreck.
We’re ready to fight, but find it extremely hard to cooperate
Q. A few years ago you said that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was the equivalent of conquering the Moon in the Kennedy era. But we are not reaching that moon.
A. The greatest challenge is having our minds clear enough to do the right thing. We don’t lack the solutions. We don’t lack the need. We don’t even lack the basic values. But we are so constantly distracted and falling into our worst impulses. Now it’s war in Europe. What a tragedy and a waste of time! We could have negotiated with Russia and avoided this war. But we’re so bad at speaking with each other and now it’s devastating. So many people dying, so much destruction, so much migration, so much waste of money. My government just voted for $40 billion of emergency aid for Ukraine. If I had ever said $40 billion for sustainable development, I would have been laughed out of Washington. ‘How could we waste that money, Mr. Sachs?’ But for war, they do it. This is the confusion. It’s a kind of primitive thinking.
Q. Do you really think the war could have been avoided?
A. Absolutely. NATO kept enlarging to the east and especially into the highly sensitive Black Sea region. [Then UN Secretary General] Kofi Annan asked me in 2000 to advise the UN on the SDGs. But then 9/11 came and the US said now we’re going to have a global war on terror. I thought at that moment: ‘This is stupid.’ Do we really have to invade Afghanistan? Iraq? Topple the Syrian regime? Libya? Is this really a good idea? Well, they did all that. And where were the Millennium Development Goals [international development goals established by the UN for the year 2015] after all that fighting, all of those trillions of dollars that the United States wasted on these wars? Well, the Millennium Development Goals were left behind.
Q. So there’s always an excuse to avoid taking action.
A. There is something wrong with the American political system. And in our human nature. We’re ready to fight, but find it extremely hard to cooperate. We’re ready to throw weapons and lives in a fight. But investment in peace and development is highly controversial. It doesn’t make sense. But that’s the way it is.
Q. Has capitalism failed?
A. Capitalism means a lot of different things. It’s a big term that includes social democracy and pure market capitalism. This in particular has failed many times, because it leads to so many social inequalities and environmental crises. Not only does the market not address these problems, it exacerbates them. But removing the market as the Soviet Union did is a disaster. So what we’re looking for is something that is mixed. That is an economy that has markets, government, civil society and a set of clear ethics. And it should be environmentally sustainable. Social democracy works much better than the Anglo-Saxon market model.
Q. In any case, we have seen that global markets are more powerful than governments.
A. Well, there are many more complications in that. For a long time, we debated this within the so-called Western world and now we are confronting a lot more models. The way China thinks about these issues is really quite different. Sub-Saharan Africa is a whole different set of challenges, and a long legacy of the colonial era which left so much of the continent without even the basics of infrastructure and education. In an interconnected world, we need a tremendous amount of global cooperation in order to be able to ensure that every region of this planet finds its place, its role and its path to a decent life. It’s what I’ve worked on for decades. There’s not any part of the world that isn’t worrying about this set of issues. But unfortunately, the “us versus them” mentality is so deeply built into our politics and our psyches, that the idea of global cooperation is viewed with a lot of suspicion.
Q. If we fail to meet the SDGs, what will the world look like in 25 years?
A. There are many kinds of risks and you can’t predict how the danger will manifest. In sub-Saharan Africa, poverty is extreme, climate change is extraordinarily dangerous and at the same time, the population is rising very fast. What is it going to mean for Europe when there are three billion people in Africa living in hugely unstable conditions and in the European Union, fewer than 500 million people? We need to be thinking ahead so that we don’t have to answer that question in the end. We should be investing today, right now. The EU’s highest priority should not be the war in Ukraine, which should be settled at the negotiating table, not by increasing the military budget, but by ensuring that every child in Africa is in school right now. It doesn’t cost very much, but it would change the future of the world. If the children are in school, there’s going to be an economy in Africa, there’s going to be jobs. That’s the most important thing right now.
