美国政客拿美国的未来赌博
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/opinion/us-federal-debt.html
大卫·布鲁克斯 作者：大卫·布鲁克斯 2024 年 4 月 25 日
意见专栏作家
过去几十年来，在两党国民自信心高涨的情况下，联邦政府借了很多钱，有时是为了应对国家紧急情况，有时是为了做人们认为值得做的事情。我们允许自己承担所有这些债务，因为利率很低，而且许多人认为事情会保持这种状态，因此承担这么多债务的成本不会太沉重。
不幸的是，这个假设被证明是错误的。利率上升了。据《华尔街日报》报道，美国今年预计将花费 8700 亿美元，即国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 3.1%，用于支付联邦债务利息。根据负责任的联邦预算委员会的说法，政府在利息支付上的支出将超过整个国防预算。三年内，如果利率保持在高位，债务支付可能成为联邦政府的第二大支出，仅次于社会保障。
当资金紧张时，就像现在一样，政府借款与私人借款竞争，推高每个人的利率。 2019 年国会预算办公室的一项研究发现，债务与 GDP 之比每增加 10%，比率导致利率增加十分之二到十分之三个百分点。这让选民感到痛苦，就像他们现在一样，因为获得抵押贷款或其他类型的贷款的成本更高。
这让政府会计师感到痛苦，因为借钱偿还债务的行为本身就会推高利率，并使偿还债务的成本变得更加昂贵。你必须担心债务螺旋式的长期噩梦可能性，在这种情况下，你必须不断借钱来偿还债务，而借贷行为本身使偿还债务变得更加难以承担。
很快，你就会看到弗格森定律。历史学家尼尔·弗格森阐明了这一原则：任何国家在债务利息支付上的支出超过军费开支，就会陷入衰落。哈布斯堡王朝的西班牙、奥斯曼帝国、大英帝国和革命前的法国都曾发生过这种情况。它会发生在我们身上吗？
你不必经历这些噩梦般的场景，就能看到联邦债务过多可能引起的所有问题。所有这些财政刺激措施都可能导致通货膨胀，就像现在一样。公共部门借贷可能会排挤私营部门借贷，从而减缓偿还债务所需的经济增长。
债务负担还限制了未来的政府，它们必须过于担心偿还债务，而无力投资于可能促进增长、减少儿童贫困、教育儿童、为人们提供住房或应对紧急情况的项目。当今的高利率环境已经对住房建筑行业造成了打击，使住房变得更加难以负担。
尽管经典凯恩斯主义理论告诉我们在经济衰退时期借钱，但在增长良好的时期承诺削减债务，美国仍在继续借入所有这些资金。
尽管乌云正在世界各地聚集，但我们的债务仍在继续加深。怨恨轴心——中国、俄罗斯和伊朗——正在前进，使世界变得更加危险，可能需要大幅增加军费开支，并迫切需要加强我们的军事制造基础设施。
尽管婴儿潮一代正在老龄化，但我们仍然继续陷入债务困境，这使得社会保障和医疗保险等计划的成本越来越高。联邦政府已经在老年人身上花费了 6 美元，而在儿童身上每花费 1 美元，这并不是对未来的投资。
就我个人而言，我并不担心我们在新冠疫情期间花掉了所有借来的钱。我们显然需要这样做，而且我们已经摆脱了疫情，经济充满活力。我担心的是，削减赤字目前在两党议程上都不重要。唐纳德·特朗普提议大幅减税。拜登政府制定了雄心勃勃的第二任期议程，其中涉及从产业政策到学生债务减免，再到通过财政刺激实现增长等方方面面。
即使总统提议削减债务（正如拜登在某种程度上所做的那样），两极分化的国会也可能无法通过。正如预算专家玛雅·麦吉尼亚斯（Maya MacGuineas）所指出的那样，如今国会更喜欢赠品而不是预算选择。让两党多数人对大多数美国人削减支出或提高税收要比让他们用借来的钱花要困难得多。
最终责任在于选民。 20 世纪 90 年代，美国人看到高额政府债务导致利率上升。选民对政界施加巨大压力
科学家们让财政部门井然有序。罗斯·佩罗 (Ross Perot) 和乔治·H·W·布什 (George H.W. Bush) 总统的赤字削减计划随之而来。布什和比尔·克林顿。今天的选民还没有建立这种联系。当他们这样做时，我怀疑政治格局将发生巨大变化。
也许我所描述的问题都不会变得更糟。也许利率会下降（尽管利率仍然居高不下）。也许经济增长将超过利率上升，从而使债务更容易负担。也许政府将能够向经济注入大规模刺激措施，而不会导致持续的通货膨胀和高利率。
但这是一场巨大的赌博。这是一场赌博，赌未来通胀和利率下降的乐观前景是否会成为现实。这是一场赌博，世界上不会发生任何意想不到的坏事。这是一场赌博，因为我们的领导阶层如此擅长所做的事情，以至于我们可以继续沿着悬崖边缘行走而没有任何跌倒的危险。
在某些时候，所有这些自信开始看起来像是傲慢或合理化：我们想把未来的钱花在自己身上。谨慎是一种无聊的美德，但谨慎的做法是让美国走上更可持续的道路。正如互联网上的模因艺术家可能会说的那样（用稍微更丰富多彩的语言），你在债务上乱来，迟早你会发现的。
大卫·布鲁克斯 (David Brooks) 自 2003 年起一直担任《泰晤士报》专栏作家。他最近撰写了《如何了解一个人：深入了解他人和被深入了解的艺术》一书。 @nytdavidbrooks
“我们为什么要拿美国的未来做赌注？”
https://www.lotusmedical.ca/elra/c0a52597od16/?
这是《纽约时报》专栏作家大卫·布鲁克斯提出的问题。更多来自谁：
美国今年预计将花费 8700 亿美元，即国内生产总值的 3.1%，用于支付联邦债务利息。根据负责任的联邦预算委员会的说法，政府在利息支付上的支出将超过整个国防预算。如果利率保持在高位，三年内，债务支付可能成为联邦政府的第二大支出，仅次于社会保障……
很快你就会看到弗格森定律。这是历史学家尼尔·弗格森宣称的原则：任何国家在债务利息支付上的支出超过军费支出的国家都会衰落。西班牙哈布斯堡王朝、奥斯曼帝国、大英帝国和革命前的法国都曾发生过这种情况。它会发生在我们身上吗？
是的——布鲁克斯先生——这会发生在我们身上。
如果它没有发生在我们身上，它就不是来自谨慎、忍耐或克制。
这将是通过机缘巧合。这将取决于运气。甚至可能是神的旨意。
正如德国铁血宰相俾斯麦曾经指出的那样：
“上帝对傻瓜、酒鬼和美利坚合众国有特殊的照顾。”
我们相信这位老普鲁士人迷上了某种东西。正如我们之前争论过的……
地球上最幸福的国家
上帝填满了两片海洋——一片大西洋和一片太平洋——以切断美国与掠夺者的联系。
他在南北陆地边界上放置了两个地缘政治最轻量级选手。
他赐予它大片肥沃的土地……广阔的毛细管系统的内部水道……天然港口，可以从中运送物资……并接收物资。
还有哪个国家能享受到如此自然的、上帝赐予的财富呢？
我们徒劳地努力想出一个。将目光投向世界……
英国或日本可以享受针对入侵的海上保险。然而，这两个国家都是缺乏必要资源的岛国。他们高度依赖进口贸易。
德国位于北欧平原。这片平原毫无防御能力，几乎无限广阔，从西边的英吉利海峡一直延伸到东边的俄罗斯乌拉尔山脉。
地理是一个极其广泛的煎饼。地势平坦，德国几乎没有天然防御能力。
西南部是强大的法国。在东方，凶猛的俄罗斯熊咆哮着。
与此同时，法国永远容易受到日耳曼人的入侵。看看1870年、1914年和1940年就知道了。
可怜的俄罗斯
接下来我们来到俄罗斯。与德国一样，俄罗斯也位于开阔的北欧平原上。当然，这使她面临西方的入侵。
波拿巴先生和希特勒先生充分利用了这一弱点——前者在 1812 年，后者在 1941 年。
那么向东呢？
俄罗斯几乎一望无际的草原一直延伸到蒙古。蒙古最出名的是什么？
成吉思汗和金帐汗国的掠夺骑兵威胁着欧亚大陆。
蒙古侵略者越过这片草海，围攻并征服了俄罗斯。
因此，俄罗斯很容易受到来自东方和西方的入侵。历史已经充分证明了这一事实。
难怪俄罗斯对领土侵犯如此偏执吗？
难怪俄罗斯如此嫉妒其对乌克兰的影响力以及前景
乌克兰加入北大西洋公约组织会冻结俄罗斯的血液吗？
与此同时：尽管俄罗斯幅员辽阔，但该国却被内陆地区所包围，冬季冰雪堵塞了其海岸。
那么中国呢？
天国
中国相信自己是天国，是上帝独一无二的眷顾者。然而我们还不能完全相信这是真的。
它的长城不是无缘无故修建的。
沿海地区有一系列堡垒环绕着这片土地——韩国、日本、台湾、菲律宾——都与上帝的选民结盟。
但让我们把调查范围扩大到赤道以下。巴西呢？
“巴西是未来的国家”，而且“永远都是”。
它的大片区域形成了无法无天的丛林。耕地匮乏。主要城市都是孤立的点。
第二和第三审稿人名单仍然存在。
不……上帝已将美国置于地球的王座上。
上帝的幽默感
上帝给了美国一个巴尔的摩……一个底特律……一个克利夫兰吗？
京城里是不是流氓、流氓、流氓、盗贼、骗子、骗子无数？
好吧，朋友们，也许他做到了。然而，即使是全能的上帝也必须允许犯错。
也许这根本不是错误，而是故意的。
我们必须承认他可能有一种顽皮的、甚至是恶作剧的幽默感：这位上帝。
他喜欢拉鼻子和拉锁链。
然而，他却给美国带来了如此巨大的自然奢侈……
在安静的时刻，通常是在深夜的凌晨，我们常常感到惊讶。
为什么我们如此幸运能够居住在这个人间伊甸园、这个黄金国、这个极乐世界？
世界各地狱中无数的其他人更应该获得这一崇高的荣誉。
然而我们就在这里。但这里却不是这样。但要继续……
我们为什么要拿美国的未来做赌注？
只有美国人自己才能把这上帝设计的田园诗搞得一团糟。
看起来他们决心这么做。上述布鲁克斯继续说道：
例如，当前的高利率环境已经对房地产行业产生了影响，使住房变得更加难以负担。
美国继续借入所有这些钱，尽管经典凯恩斯主义理论告诉我们，我们应该在经济衰退时期借钱，但在经济增长良好的时期，我们应该致力于削减债务......
即使婴儿潮一代逐渐变老，我们仍继续进一步陷入债务，使得社会保障和医疗保险等项目变得越来越昂贵。联邦政府已经在老年人身上花费 6 美元，在儿童身上花费 1 美元，这不完全是对未来的投资……
让两党多数人对大多数美国人削减开支或提高税收要比让他们用借来的钱花钱要困难得多。
他的结论是：
在某种程度上，所有这些自信开始看起来像是傲慢或合理化：我们想把未来的钱花在自己身上。谨慎是一种无聊的美德，但明智的做法是让美国走上更可持续的道路。正如互联网上的模因艺术家可能会说的那样（用稍微更丰富多彩的语言），你在债务上胡闹，迟早你会发现。
然而，伟大的国家，就像伟大的帝国一样，都有着循环——从玫瑰色的黎明，到万里无云的正午，到昏暗的日落。
美国是一种帝国——尽管没有人敢说这个词。
也许我们只是目睹了一个衰落的帝国，一个暮色中的帝国。
“帝国有自己的逻辑，”我们自己的华盛顿和杰斐逊——比尔·邦纳和艾迪生·威金——在《债务帝国》的结论中写道：
“他们将以悲伤告终，这是已成定局。”
不幸的是……即使上帝的神圣旨意也不是永恒的……
乌克兰加入北大西洋公约组织会冻结俄罗斯的血液吗？
与此同时：尽管俄罗斯幅员辽阔，但该国却被内陆地区所包围，冬季冰雪堵塞了其海岸。
那么中国呢？
天国
中国相信自己是天国，是上帝独一无二的眷顾者。然而我们还不能完全相信这是真的。
它的长城不是无缘无故修建的。
沿海地区有一系列堡垒环绕着这片土地——韩国、日本、台湾、菲律宾——都与上帝的选民结盟。
但让我们把调查范围扩大到赤道以下。巴西呢？
“巴西是未来的国家”，而且“永远都是”。
它的大片区域形成了无法无天的丛林。耕地匮乏。主要城市都是孤立的点。
第二和第三审稿人名单仍然存在。
不……上帝已将美国置于地球的王座上。
上帝的幽默感
上帝给了美国一个巴尔的摩……一个底特律……一个克利夫兰吗？
京城里是不是流氓、流氓、流氓、盗贼、骗子、骗子无数？
好吧，朋友们，也许他做到了。然而，即使是全能的上帝也必须允许犯错。
也许这根本不是错误，而是故意的。
我们必须承认他可能有一种顽皮的、甚至是恶作剧的幽默感：这位上帝。
他喜欢拉鼻子和拉锁链。
然而，他却给美国带来了如此巨大的自然奢侈……
在安静的时刻，通常是在深夜的凌晨，我们常常感到惊讶。
为什么我们如此幸运能够居住在这个人间伊甸园、这个黄金国、这个极乐世界？
世界各地狱中无数的其他人更应该获得这一崇高的荣誉。
然而我们就在这里。但这里却不是这样。但要继续……
我们为什么要拿美国的未来做赌注？
只有美国人自己才能把这上帝设计的田园诗搞得一团糟。
看起来他们决心这么做。上述布鲁克斯继续说道：
例如，当前的高利率环境已经对房地产行业产生了影响，使住房变得更加难以负担。
美国继续借入所有这些钱，尽管经典凯恩斯主义理论告诉我们，我们应该在经济衰退时期借钱，但在经济增长良好的时期，我们应该致力于削减债务......
即使婴儿潮一代逐渐变老，我们仍继续进一步陷入债务，使得社会保障和医疗保险等项目变得越来越昂贵。联邦政府已经在老年人身上花费 6 美元，在儿童身上花费 1 美元，这不完全是对未来的投资……
让两党多数人对大多数美国人削减开支或提高税收要比让他们用借来的钱花钱要困难得多。
他的结论是：
在某种程度上，所有这些自信开始看起来像是傲慢或合理化：我们想把未来的钱花在自己身上。谨慎是一种无聊的美德，但明智的做法是让美国走上更可持续的道路。正如互联网上的模因艺术家可能会说的那样（用稍微更丰富多彩的语言），你在债务上胡闹，迟早你会发现。
然而，伟大的国家，就像伟大的帝国一样，都有着循环——从玫瑰色的黎明，到万里无云的正午，到昏暗的日落。
美国是一种帝国——尽管没有人敢说这个词。
也许我们只是目睹了一个衰落的帝国，一个暮色中的帝国。
“帝国有自己的逻辑，”我们自己的华盛顿和杰斐逊——比尔·邦纳和艾迪生·威金——在《债务帝国》的结论中写道：
“他们将以悲伤告终，这是已成定局。”
不幸的是……即使上帝的神圣旨意也不是永恒的……
Why Are We Gambling With America's Future?
Opinion Columnist
Over the past few decades, in a surge of bipartisan national self-confidence, the federal government has borrowed a lot of money, sometimes in response to national emergencies and sometimes to do the things people thought were worth doing. We gave ourselves permission to incur all this debt because interest rates were low and many people assumed that things would stay that way, so the costs of carrying that much debt wouldn’t be too onerous.
Unfortunately, that assumption turned out to be incorrect. Interest rates have risen. According to The Wall Street Journal, America is expected to spend $870 billion, or 3.1 percent of gross domestic product, this year on interest payments on the federal debt. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the government will spend more on interest payments than on the entire defense budget. Within three years, if interest rates remain high, payments on the debt could become the federal government’s second-largest expenditure, behind Social Security.
When money is tight, as it is now, government borrowing competes with private borrowing, driving interest rates up for everybody. A 2019 Congressional Budget Office study found that every 10 percent increase in the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio results in an increase in interest rates of two-tenths to three-tenths of a percentage point. That makes voters miserable, as they are now, because it’s more expensive to, say, get a mortgage or some other kind of loan.
It makes government accountants miserable because the very act of borrowing money to pay off debt can drive interest rates higher and make the prospect of paying off debt even more expensive. You have to worry about the long-term nightmare possibility of a debt spiral, in which you have to borrow and borrow to service the debt while the act of borrowing itself makes paying off the debt more unaffordable.
Pretty soon, you’re staring at Ferguson’s Law. This is the principle enunciated by the historian Niall Ferguson that any nation that spends more on interest payments on the debt than on military spending will slip into decline. It happened to Hapsburg Spain, the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire and prerevolutionary France. Will it happen to us?
You don’t have to get to these nightmare scenarios to see all the problems that can be caused by excessive federal debt. All that fiscal stimulus can cause inflation, as it is doing now. Public sector borrowing can crowd out private sector borrowing, thus slowing the economic growth you need to pay off the debt.
The debt burden also constrains future administrations, which have to worry so much about paying off the debt they are less able to invest in programs that might increase growth, reduce child poverty, educate children, house people or respond to emergencies. Today’s high interest rate environment is already hammering, say, the housing construction industry and making housing even more unaffordable.
The United States continues to borrow all this money even though classical Keynesian theory tells us to borrow in times of recession but commit to debt reduction in times like these, when growth is good.
We continue to go deeper into debt even though the storm clouds are gathering around the world. The axis of resentment — China, Russia and Iran — is on the march, making the world a more dangerous place and possibly necessitating a surge in military spending and a rapid need to beef up our military manufacturing infrastructure.
We continue to go further into debt even though the baby boom generation is aging, making programs like Social Security and Medicare more and more costly. The federal government already spends $6 on senior citizens for every $1 on children, which is not exactly investing in the future.
Personally, I’m not bothered that we spent all that borrowed money during Covid. We clearly needed to, and we’ve emerged from the pandemic with a dynamic economy. My concern is that deficit reduction is not high on either party’s agenda right now. Donald Trump has proposed whopping tax cuts. The Biden administration has an ambitious second-term agenda that would involve everything from industrial policy to student debt forgiveness to growth through fiscal stimulus.
Even if a president proposed debt reduction (as Biden has to some degree), a polarized Congress probably couldn’t pass it. As the budget expert Maya MacGuineas has pointed out, these days Congress favors giveaways over budget choices. It is infinitely more difficult to get bipartisan majorities to cut spending or raise taxes on the bulk of Americans than it is to get it to spend with borrowed money.
Ultimately responsibility lies with the voters. In the 1990s, Americans saw how high government debt was raising their interest rates. Voters put tremendous pressure on politicians to get the fiscal house in order. Along came Ross Perot and deficit reduction plans under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Voters today have not yet made that connection. When they do, I suspect the political landscape will shift massively.
Maybe none of the problems I’m describing will get worse. Maybe interest rates will fall (though they have remained stubbornly high). Maybe economic growth will outpace interest rate increases, making the debt more affordable. Maybe the government will be able to pour massive stimulus into the economy without leading to continued inflation and high rates.
But this is a gigantic gamble. It’s a gamble that rosy scenarios about future inflation and interest rate declines will come to pass. It’s a gamble that nothing unexpectedly bad will happen in the world. It’s a gamble that our leadership class is so good at what it does that we can continue to walk along the cliff’s edge without any danger of falling over.
At some point all this self-confidence begins to look like hubris or a rationalization for: We want to spend the future’s money on ourselves. Prudence is a boring virtue, but the prudent course is to get the United States on a more sustainable course. As the meme artists on the internet might say (in slightly more colorful language), you mess around with debt, and sooner or later you’ll find out.
David Brooks has been a columnist with The Times since 2003. He is the author, most recently, of “How to Know a Person: The Art of Seeing Others Deeply and Being Deeply Seen.” @nytdavidbrooks
“Why are we gambling with America's future?”
https://www.lotusmedical.ca/elra/c0a52597od16/?
This is the question New York Times columnist David Brooks. More from whom:
America is expected to spend $870 billion, or 3.1 percent of gross domestic product, on interest payments on the federal debt this year. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the government will spend more on interest payments than on the entire defense budget. If interest rates remain high, within three years, debt payments could become the federal government’s second-largest expense, after Social Security…
Soon you’re staring at Ferguson’s law. This is the principle proclaimed by historian Niall Ferguson: any country that spends more on interest payments on its debts than on military expenditure will decline. It happened to Habsburg Spain, the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire and pre-revolutionary France. Will it happen to us?
Yes – Mr. Brooks – it will happen to us.
If it does not happen to us, it will not come from prudence, forbearance or restraint.
It will be through serendipity. It will be through luck. Maybe even divine providence.
As the German Iron Chancellor Bismarck once noted:
“God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America.”
We believe the old Prussian was hooked on something. As we have argued before…
The happiest nation on earth
God filled two oceans – one Atlantic and one Pacific – to cut off the United States from plunderers.
He placed two geopolitical bantamweights against the land borders north and south.
He blessed it with vast tracts of rich, fertile land… an extensive capillary system of internal waterways… natural harbors from which to ship supplies… and to take in supplies.
What other nation has enjoyed such natural, God-given wealth?
We struggle in vain to think of one. Cast your gaze around the world…
An England or a Japan can enjoy maritime insurance against invasion. Yet both countries are island states that lack essential resources. They are highly dependent on the import trade.
Germany inhabits the Northern European Plain. This plain is a defenseless and almost infinite expanse stretching from the English Channel in the west to Russia’s Ural Mountains in the east.
Geography is an enormously extensive pancake. Its flatness offers Germany little natural defense.
In the southwest lies formidable France. In the east the menacing Russian bear snarls.
France, meanwhile, is eternally vulnerable to the Germanic invasion. Just look at 1870, 1914 and 1940.
Poor Russia
Next we come to Russia. Like Germany, Russia is located on the open Northern European plain. This, of course, exposes her to Western invasion.
Messieurs Bonaparte and Hitler took full advantage of this vulnerability – the former in 1812, the latter in 1941.
And to the east?
The almost endless steppes of Russia stretch all the way to Mongolia. What is Mongolia best known for?
Genghis Khan and the Golden Horde of marauding horsemen who terrorized Eurasia.
Crossing these grassy seas, Mongol invaders besieged and conquered Russia.
Russia is therefore vulnerable to invasions from both the east and the west. History has demonstrated this fact to great effect.
Is it any wonder why Russia seems so paranoid about territorial transgression?
Is it any wonder why Russia is so jealous of its influence over Ukraine – and why the prospect of Ukrainian inclusion in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization freezes Russia’s blood?
Meanwhile: Despite Russia’s enormous size, the country is landlocked by winter ice that is choking its coasts.
What about China?
The kingdom of heaven
China believes that it is the Heavenly Kingdom, which is uniquely favored by God. Yet we are not half convinced that it is true.
It didn’t build its Great Wall for nothing.
And off the coast lies a chain of fortresses surrounding the land – South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines – all allied with God’s chosen nation.
But let’s extend our investigation below the equator. What about Brazil?
“Brazil is the country of the future,” says the old saw – and “always will be.”
Large areas of it form a lawless jungle. There is a lack of arable land. The main cities are isolated dots.
The list of second and third reviewers remains.
No… God has put America on the throne of the earth.
God’s sense of humor
Has God given the United States a Baltimore… a Detroit… a Cleveland?
Has He populated the capital with an endless array of scoundrels, scoundrels, scoundrels, chisellers, swindlers, and swindlers?
Well, friends, maybe He did. Yet even God Almighty must be allowed room for error.
Maybe it’s not a mistake at all, but intentional.
We must admit the possibility that He has a mischievous, even mischievous sense of humor: this God.
That He delights in pulling noses and pulling chains.
Nevertheless, he has showered America with such enormous natural extravagance…
In quiet moments, often in the wee hours of the night, we are often surprised.
Why are we so fortunate to be allowed to dwell in this earthly Eden, this El Dorado, this Elysium?
Countless others in the various hells of the world are infinitely more deserving of this high honor.
Yet here we are. And here they are not. But to continue…
Why are we gambling with America’s future?
Only the Americans themselves could make a mess of this idyll designed by God.
And it looks like they’re determined to do just that. The aforementioned Brooks continues:
For example, the current high interest rate environment is already having an impact on the housing sector and making housing even more unaffordable.
The United States continues to borrow all this money, even though classical Keynesian theory tells us that we should borrow in times of recession, but that we should commit to debt reduction in times like these, when growth is good…
We continue to sink ourselves further into debt even as the baby boomer generation ages, making programs like Social Security and Medicare increasingly expensive. The federal government already spends $6 on seniors for every $1 on children, which isn’t exactly an investment in the future…
It is infinitely more difficult to get a bipartisan majority to cut spending or raise taxes on the bulk of Americans than it is to get them to spend it with borrowed money.
He concludes:
At a certain point, all this self-confidence starts to look like hubris or a rationalization for: we want to spend the money of the future on ourselves. Prudence is a boring virtue, but the sensible course is to put the United States on a more sustainable course. As the meme artists on the internet might say (in slightly more colorful language), you’re messing around with debt, and sooner or later you’ll find out.
Great nations, like great empires, nevertheless move in cycles – from rosy dawn, to high and cloudless noon, to dim sunset.
The United States is a kind of empire – although no one dares to say that word.
Perhaps we are merely witnessing an empire in decline, an empire in twilight.
“Empires have their own logic,” our own Washington and Jefferson – Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin – wrote in Empire of debtin conclusion:
ldquo;That they will end in sorrow is a foregone conclusion.’
Unfortunately… even God’s divine providence is not eternal…
