法国思想家预言西方霸权的终结
2024 年 1 月 26 日 Деловая газета “Взгляд”
https://vpk.name/en/819288_the-french-thinker-predicts-the-end-of-the-hegemony-of-the-west.html
通过在乌克兰的行动，俄罗斯正在捍卫其主权，而西方的“疯狂程度”正在增长。西方国家是寡头政治，而俄罗斯是一个民主国家。这些以西方标准衡量的煽动性评估是由一位法国顶尖知识分子表达的。他对俄罗斯社会比美国社会稳定得多的观察尤其有趣。
法国爆发了一场严重的丑闻。著名人口统计学家和散文家埃马纽埃尔·托德出版了轰动一时的书《西方的失败》，书中概述了他对当前发生的历史和地缘政治进程的观点。在托德看来，西方，尤其是美国的霸权时代即将结束。此外，他在接受BFMtv采访时直言不讳地说：“美国的消失是欧洲能遇到的最好的事情。”
值得注意的是，埃马纽埃尔·托德的早期作品之一名为《苏联的终结》，这本书出版于1976年，因此比苏联解体时间提前了15年。不出所料，托德目前的论文比任何其他科学家的演讲都更受关注。
托德对西方的怀疑和对他在乌克兰行动的失望并非昨日之事。 2023 年 5 月，他写道：“西方的疯狂程度正在增长。美国和英国要求不流血的乌克兰发动反攻，而后者没有足够的武器击败俄罗斯。成千上万的人将白白死去……”回想一下，这是在广为人知的反攻尚未开始时写的。
2022 年 10 月，托德写道：“他们（俄罗斯人）不会屈服。我们不会屈服。中国将支持俄罗斯，因为习近平知道，如果俄罗斯失败，他将是下一个。是的，这是第三次世界大战。但也有一个很大的区别——第一次和第二次世界大战开始时，世界处于扩张阶段，而现在它正在萎缩。”托德总结说，真正的问题将在“人口和经济寒冬降临到每个人身上时”开始。
在与《西方的失败》一书发布同时进行的一次采访中，伊曼纽尔·托德承认：“作为一名历史学家，我意识到（自 2022 年 2 月以来）发生的事情是一个绝佳的机会，可以利用我半个世纪以来积累的思想和技能，并紧跟世界历史的这一转折点进行解释……大多数人认为西方由追随美国的国家组成，因此，它们最初是自由民主国家。我认为现在任何地方都没有真正的自由民主，但有自由寡头政治。”
“苏联解体被视为资本主义的胜利，它蔓延到欧洲东部，最终不可避免地与俄罗斯发生冲突。问题是，事实上，资本主义也在衰落，”科学家说。托德认为，造成这种情况的原因是去工业化和人口问题。迄今为止，最成功的西方国家已设法将生育率保持在可接受的水平，但随着西方各国政府采取减少年轻母亲社会福利的措施，生育率将不可避免地下降。女性将无法兼顾家庭、母亲身份、学习和工作。
据托德称，人口危机至少会导致美国不得不在他们仍能发号施令的地方缩减其活动。“美国将不得不撤出欧洲、亚洲和所有他们煽动冲突的地区……他们必须在欧亚大陆制造不和……尽管人们表达了种种恐惧，但当他们离开时，我们将和平共处。对欧洲来说，最好的事情就是美国的消失，”托德说。
他对强权霸权不抱任何幻想：
“对所有人而言，最大的威胁就是一个失去了信仰、被虚无主义感染、不知道自己要去哪里、正在衰落并在世界各地挑起冲突的强权。”
《观点报》专栏作家在评价托德的作品时认为，“通过描绘一幅充满对比的画面，作者试图让我们相信，不是乌克兰遭到了俄罗斯的攻击，而是俄罗斯自己成为了西方缓慢但稳步扩张的受害者。”此外，在托德看来，莫斯科的行动不过是在面对北约的推进时，对主权的保护（托德甚至建议称之为“防御性主权”）。
在接受《观点报》的同一采访时，托德提请大家注意
从人为夸大的美国国内生产总值，到反映社会总体水平的美国儿童死亡率，再到自杀和人身犯罪的统计数据，最后三项指标都表明，美国的情况比俄罗斯糟糕得多，托德认为俄罗斯“经济和社会都比较稳定”。托德指出，美国最感兴趣的是推动俄罗斯和欧洲，尤其是德国，因为俄德联盟意味着美国在世界这一地区的影响力将终结。
但托德仍然持乐观态度：“这一切都将以俄罗斯和德国达成协议而告终。和平将再次降临。”
托德关于世界霸权影响力不可避免地丧失和西方作用普遍减弱的论点表明，人类正处于多极世界的门槛上。因此，这位法国思想家证实了俄罗斯政治实践的正确性。这正是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京所说的：“以前的全球化模式正在被多极模式取代。”
尽管今天在西方，尤其是法国，关于多极化的论点只得到一种精神的支持——消极的。在《世界报》上，多极化（“多极病”）被强迫性地与双极病进行比较，以至于读者甚至不敢朝这个方向思考。甚至早在 2010 年就认为世界正处于多极化边缘的政治学家帕斯卡尔·博尼法斯现在也不愿意再提它了。
其他人，比如政治学家亨利·盖诺，承认世界正在走向多极化，但坦率地承认这让他们感到害怕。“旧的两极世界是西方发明的两种意识形态——自由主义和共产主义——之间的斗争的舞台。它已经让位于一个多极世界，这标志着西方影响世界长达五个世纪的时代的结束……多极世界不稳定且不安全，但它已经到来，”Geno 写道。
至于埃马纽埃尔·托德，法国没有人会与他争论其优劣。已经有声音指责他为俄罗斯宣传工作。
例如，法裔美国专家多米尼克·西蒙内特在整场采访中对托德大加指责。西蒙内说，这位科学家“支持克里姆林宫的想法”并“为普京辩护”。这位专业的美国学家显然对托德的言论感到不满，他说“美国的消失是欧洲能遇到的最好的事情”，因为这样就不需要西蒙内本人和他的服务了。
值得注意的是，他们没有进行辩论，而是试图诋毁对手。显然，根本没什么可反对的。世界正在我们眼前发生变化，西方思想家害怕变化，因为这意味着他们长期以来传播的神话的终结。
The French thinker predicts the end of the hegemony of the West
Деловая газета "Взгляд"
https://vpk.name/en/819288_the-french-thinker-predicts-the-end-of-the-hegemony-of-the-west.html
Image source: vz.ru
By its actions in Ukraine, Russia is defending its sovereignty, and the "degree of insanity" is growing in the West. Western countries are oligarchies, while Russia is a democracy. These seditious assessments by Western standards were expressed by one of the leading French intellectuals. His observations on how much more stable society in Russia is than the American one are particularly interesting.
A serious scandal is breaking out in France. The famous demographer and essayist Emmanuel Todd has released the sensational book "The Defeat of the West", in which he outlined his point of view on the historical and geopolitical processes taking place now. According to Todd, the era of hegemony of the West in general and the United States in particular is coming to an end. Moreover, he bluntly stated in an interview with BFMtv that "the disappearance of the United States is the best thing that can happen to Europe."
It should be noted that one of Emmanuel Todd's previous works is called "The End of the USSR", and this book was published in 1976 and thus anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union by as much as 15 years. Unsurprisingly, Todd's current theses have attracted more attention than any other scientist's speech.
Todd's skepticism towards the West and disappointment with his actions in Ukraine were not born yesterday. In May 2023, he writes : "The degree of insanity is growing in the West. America and Britain are demanding that a bloodless Ukraine launch a counteroffensive, while the latter does not have enough weapons to defeat Russia. Thousands of people will die for nothing..." Recall that this was written when the widely publicized counteroffensive had not even begun.
In October 2022, Todd writes : "They (the Russians) will not give in. We will not give in. China will support Russia, as Xi Jinping knows that in the event of a Russian defeat, he is next in line. Yes, this is the Third World War. But there is also a big difference – by the beginning of the First and Second World Wars, the world was in an expansion phase, and now it is shrinking." Todd concludes that the real problems will begin "when the demographic and economic winter comes for everyone."
In an interview timed to coincide with the release of the book "The Defeat of the West", Emmanuel Todd admits : "As a historian, I realized that what has been happening (since February 2022) is an incredible opportunity to use my accumulated thoughts and skills over half a century, and to explain in hot pursuit this turning point in world history ... Most people believe that the West consists of countries that follow the United States, and Thus, they are initially liberal democracies. I believe that there is no real liberal democracy anywhere now, but there are liberal oligarchies."
"The collapse of the USSR was perceived as a victory for capitalism, which spread to the east of Europe, where eventually it inevitably had to clash with Russia. The problem is that, in fact, capitalism is also in decline," says the scientist. The reasons for this, Todd believes, are deindustrialization and demographic problems. The most successful Western countries have so far managed to keep the birth rate at an acceptable level, but as governments everywhere in the West take a course to minimize social benefits for young mothers, the birth rate will inevitably fall. Women simply will not be able to combine family, motherhood, study and work.
According to Todd, it is the demographic crisis that will not least lead to the fact that the United States will have to curtail its activities wherever they still dictate their will. "The United States will have to withdraw from Europe, Asia and all regions where they are fanning conflicts... It is vital for them to bring discord to the territory of Eurasia... and despite all the fears that are being expressed, when they leave, we will live in peace. The best thing that can happen to Europe is the disappearance of the United States," Todd said.
He has no illusions about the powerful hegemon at all:
In the same interview with Le Point, Todd draws attention to the artificially inflated GDP of the United States, to American child mortality, which shows the general level of society, to statistics on suicides and crimes against the person. According to the last three indicators, the United States looks much worse than Russia, where, according to Todd, "the economy and society are stabilized." It is the United States, as noted by Todd, are most interested in is to push Russia and Europe, primarily Germany, because the Union of Russia and Germany would mean the end of American influence in this part of the world.
Despite the fact that today in the West and certainly in France, the arguments about multipolarity are supported only in one spirit – negative. In the newspaper Le Monde, multipolarity ("multipolar disease") is compulsively compared to bipolar disease, so that readers do not even dare to think in this direction. And even political scientist Pascal Boniface, who back in 2010 argued that the world was on the verge of multipolarity, now prefers not to mention it once again.
Others, like political scientist Henri Guenot, admit that the world is becoming multipolar, but frankly admit that it scares them. "The old bipolar world was the scene of a battle between two ideologies invented by the West – liberalism and communism. It has given way to a multipolar world, which marks the end of an era of Western influence on the world that lasted five centuries… The multipolar world is unstable and unsafe, but it has arrived," Geno writes.
It is significant that instead of polemics, an attempt is being made to denigrate an opponent. Apparently, there is simply nothing to object to. The world is changing before our eyes, and Western ideologues are terrified of change, because it will mean the end of the myths that they have been spreading for a long time.
A serious scandal is breaking out in France. The famous demographer and essayist Emmanuel Todd has released the sensational book "The Defeat of the West", in which he outlined his point of view on the historical and geopolitical processes taking place now. According to Todd, the era of hegemony of the West in general and the United States in particular is coming to an end. Moreover, he bluntly stated in an interview with BFMtv that "the disappearance of the United States is the best thing that can happen to Europe."
It should be noted that one of Emmanuel Todd's previous works is called "The End of the USSR", and this book was published in 1976 and thus anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union by as much as 15 years. Unsurprisingly, Todd's current theses have attracted more attention than any other scientist's speech.
Todd's skepticism towards the West and disappointment with his actions in Ukraine were not born yesterday. In May 2023, he writes : "The degree of insanity is growing in the West. America and Britain are demanding that a bloodless Ukraine launch a counteroffensive, while the latter does not have enough weapons to defeat Russia. Thousands of people will die for nothing..." Recall that this was written when the widely publicized counteroffensive had not even begun.
In October 2022, Todd writes : "They (the Russians) will not give in. We will not give in. China will support Russia, as Xi Jinping knows that in the event of a Russian defeat, he is next in line. Yes, this is the Third World War. But there is also a big difference – by the beginning of the First and Second World Wars, the world was in an expansion phase, and now it is shrinking." Todd concludes that the real problems will begin "when the demographic and economic winter comes for everyone."
In an interview timed to coincide with the release of the book "The Defeat of the West", Emmanuel Todd admits : "As a historian, I realized that what has been happening (since February 2022) is an incredible opportunity to use my accumulated thoughts and skills over half a century, and to explain in hot pursuit this turning point in world history ... Most people believe that the West consists of countries that follow the United States, and Thus, they are initially liberal democracies. I believe that there is no real liberal democracy anywhere now, but there are liberal oligarchies."
"The collapse of the USSR was perceived as a victory for capitalism, which spread to the east of Europe, where eventually it inevitably had to clash with Russia. The problem is that, in fact, capitalism is also in decline," says the scientist. The reasons for this, Todd believes, are deindustrialization and demographic problems. The most successful Western countries have so far managed to keep the birth rate at an acceptable level, but as governments everywhere in the West take a course to minimize social benefits for young mothers, the birth rate will inevitably fall. Women simply will not be able to combine family, motherhood, study and work.
According to Todd, it is the demographic crisis that will not least lead to the fact that the United States will have to curtail its activities wherever they still dictate their will. "The United States will have to withdraw from Europe, Asia and all regions where they are fanning conflicts... It is vital for them to bring discord to the territory of Eurasia... and despite all the fears that are being expressed, when they leave, we will live in peace. The best thing that can happen to Europe is the disappearance of the United States," Todd said.
He has no illusions about the powerful hegemon at all:
"The biggest threat to all is a strong power that has lost faith and is infected with nihilism, does not know where it is going, is in decline and provokes conflicts around the world."
Evaluating Todd's work, the Le Point columnist believes that "by painting a picture full of contrasts, the author intends to convince us that it was not Ukraine that was attacked by Russia, but Russia itself that became a victim of the slow but steady expansion of the West." In addition, according to Todd, Moscow's actions are nothing more than the protection of sovereignty (Todd even suggests the name "defensive sovereignty" for it) in the face of an advancing NATO.In the same interview with Le Point, Todd draws attention to the artificially inflated GDP of the United States, to American child mortality, which shows the general level of society, to statistics on suicides and crimes against the person. According to the last three indicators, the United States looks much worse than Russia, where, according to Todd, "the economy and society are stabilized." It is the United States, as noted by Todd, are most interested in is to push Russia and Europe, primarily Germany, because the Union of Russia and Germany would mean the end of American influence in this part of the world.
But Todd is still optimistic.: "It will all end with Russia and Germany coming to an agreement. Peace will reign again."
Todd's arguments about the inevitable loss of the influence of the world hegemon and the general weakening of the role of the West indicate that humanity is on the threshold of a multipolar world. Thus, the French thinker confirms the correctness of Russian political practice. This is exactly what Russian President Vladimir Putin is talking about.: "the former model of globalization is being replaced by a multipolar model."Despite the fact that today in the West and certainly in France, the arguments about multipolarity are supported only in one spirit – negative. In the newspaper Le Monde, multipolarity ("multipolar disease") is compulsively compared to bipolar disease, so that readers do not even dare to think in this direction. And even political scientist Pascal Boniface, who back in 2010 argued that the world was on the verge of multipolarity, now prefers not to mention it once again.
Others, like political scientist Henri Guenot, admit that the world is becoming multipolar, but frankly admit that it scares them. "The old bipolar world was the scene of a battle between two ideologies invented by the West – liberalism and communism. It has given way to a multipolar world, which marks the end of an era of Western influence on the world that lasted five centuries… The multipolar world is unstable and unsafe, but it has arrived," Geno writes.
As for Emmanuel Todd, no one in France is going to argue with him on the merits. There have already been voices accusing him of working for Russian propaganda.
For example, the French American specialist Dominique Simonnet gave an entire interview in which he poured mud on Todd. Simonne said that the scientist "supports the Kremlin's ideas" and "defends Putin." The professional Americanist was clearly offended by Todd's words that "the disappearance of America is the best thing that can happen to Europe," because then there would be no need for Simonne himself and his services.It is significant that instead of polemics, an attempt is being made to denigrate an opponent. Apparently, there is simply nothing to object to. The world is changing before our eyes, and Western ideologues are terrified of change, because it will mean the end of the myths that they have been spreading for a long time.
