John Mearsheimer 核武器可防止東亞爆發大國戰爭

約翰米爾斯海默認核武器可防止東亞爆發大國戰爭?! 安全競爭易演變成戰爭?!【國際360】20240801?@全球大視野Global_Vision?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGZm8_dYV-Q

我认为毫无疑问，就我们目前所见，美国和中国之间将展开激烈的安全竞争，我相信，在这一过程中将会出现危机，涉及南海、东海和台湾的危机，我认为这是不可避免的，真正重要的问题是我们能否管理这些危机并避免战争，我的意思是，我认为台湾战争甚至南海战争都将是一场灾难，我认为问题是，一旦战争开始，可能很难停止，就像我们在东欧看到的乌克兰战争一样，这场战争很难停止，所以，这就是我真正担心的，安全竞争会演变成战争。

我认为，只要管理得当，我们可以度过未来许多年或许多年，而不必经历战争，我认为，很有可能没错，但我认为我们最终陷入战争的可能性并不小，你要记住我之前说过的话，约翰，东亚的问题在于，很容易想象在南海或东海或台湾发生冲突，甚至在喜马拉雅山上印度和中国之间发生冲突，这与冷战时期的情况大不相同，当时很难想象在中欧打一场战争，因为那会非常可怕。

所以我的观点是，你知道你有这些 iOS 场景，你知道这些场景很可能会发生，但并不那么可怕，你知道没有中欧战争那么可怕，现在人们非常紧张，一个可能的反驳是，我们生活在一个核世界，即使是南海的小冲突或台湾的小冲突也有升级到核级别的风险，这种威胁应该在很大程度上防止大国战争东亚，我认为这个论点很有说服力。我一秒钟都不会否认这个论点，对吧。

核武器的存在使战争的可能性降低，但你甚至可以想象在南海发生战争，那里使用了核武器，因为那些核武器是在海洋中使用的，这与在中欧或中国大陆使用的核武器不同，所以也许战争的可能性比许多相信核革命的人认识到的要大，所以我想说这是一个复杂的问题，几乎不可能得出我们再次发生战争的确切概率。我认为我们将进行安全竞争是不言而喻的，而且大多数时候都会是激烈的安全竞争，但是否会发生战争我不确定，但我确实认为，这是我的底线，在未来几十年里，美国最终与中国开战的可能性并不小

I think there is no question that we are going to have for as far as the eye can see an intense security competition

between the United States and China uh and I believe that there will be crises along the way uh crises involving the South China Sea the East China Sea uh and Taiwan I I think that's unavoidable uh the really important question is whether we can manage those crises and avoid a war I mean I think a war over Taiwan or even a war over the

South China Sea uh would be a disaster I

think the problem is that once the war started it would probably be very hard to shut down just like we're seeing in Eastern Europe uh with the Ukraine war

it's very hard to shut that war down so

that's that's what I really worry about

that security competition morphing into

a war do I think that with good management we can you know get through the next however many years or however many decades without a war I think

there's serious possibility that that's

true but I think there's a non-trivial

chance uh that we will end up in a war

you want to remember what I said before

John the problem in East Asia is that

it's easy to imagine a conflict in the

South China Sea or in the East China Sea

or over Taiwan or even a conflict up in

the Himalayas between India and

China um it's it's much different than

during the Cold War when it was really

hard to imagine fighting a war in

Central Europe because it would have

been so horrible so my point again is

the fact that you know you have these

scenario iOS that you know could very well happen that are not that horrible you know not as horriable U as a war in Central Europe uh makes one very nervous now a possible counter to that argument is look we live

in a nuclear world and even a minor conflict in the South China Sea or a minor conflict over Taiwan runs the risk

of escalating to the nuclear level and that threat should go a long way towards preventing a great power war in East Asia I think that's an argument that has

a lot of punch I I don't dismiss that argument for one second right the presence of nuclear weapons makes War less likely but again you can even imagine a war in the South China Sea where nuclear weapons are employed because those are nuclear nuclear weapons being employed out in the ocean and that's not the same as nuclear weapons being employed in Central Europe or being employed on the Chinese Mainland so again uh maybe war is more likely uh uh than a lot of people who believe in the nuclear Revolution recognize so I'm trying to say here that it's a complicated matter where it's almost impossible to come up with firm probabilities as to how likely it is that we will have a war again I think it's axiomatic that we're going to have security competition and it will be intense security competition most of the time but whether or not you get a war I don't know for sure but I do think and this is my bottom line there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will end up fighting China uh in the decades ahead

I think there is no question that we are

going to have for as far as the eye can

see an intense security competition

between the United States and

China uh and I believe that there will

be crises along the way uh crises

involving the South China Sea the East

China

Sea uh and Taiwan I I think that's

unavoidable uh the really important

question is whether we can manage those

crises and avoid a war I mean I think a

war over Taiwan or even a war over the

South China Sea uh would be a disaster I

think the problem is that once the war

started it would probably be very hard

to shut down just like we're seeing in

Eastern Europe uh with the Ukraine war

it's very hard to shut that war down so

that's that's what I really worry about

that security competition morphing into

a war do I think that with good

management we can you know get through

the next however many years or however

many decades without a war I think

there's serious possibility that that's

true but I think there's a non-trivial

chance uh that we will end up in a war

you want to remember what I said before

John the problem in East Asia is that

it's easy to imagine a conflict in the

South China Sea or in the East China Sea

or over Taiwan or even a conflict up in

the Himalayas between India and

China um it's it's much different than

during the Cold War when it was really

hard to imagine fighting a war in

Central Europe because it would have

been so horrible so my point again is

the fact that you know you have these

scenario iOS that you

know could very well happen that are not

that horrible you know not as

horriable U as a war in Central Europe

uh makes one very nervous now a possible

counter to that argument is look we live

in a nuclear world and even a minor

conflict in the South China Sea or a

minor conflict over Taiwan runs the risk

of escalating to the nuclear level and

that threat should go a long way towards

preventing a great power war in East

Asia I think that's an argument that has

a lot of punch I I don't dismiss that

argument for one second right the

presence of nuclear weapons makes War

less likely but again you can even

imagine a war in the South China Sea

where nuclear weapons are employed

because those are nuclear nuclear

weapons being employed out in the ocean

and that's not the same as nuclear

weapons being employed in Central Europe

or being employed on the Chinese

Mainland so again uh maybe war is more

likely uh uh than a lot of people who

believe in the nuclear Revolution

recognize so I'm trying to say here that

it's a complicated matter where it's

almost impossible to come up with firm

probabilities as to how likely it is

that we will have a war again I think

it's axiomatic that we're going to have

security competition and it will be

intense security competition most of the

time but whether or not you get a war I

don't know for sure but I do think and

this is my bottom line there is a

non-trivial chance that the United

States will end up fighting China uh in

the decades ahead

毫無疑問 在可見的未來

我們將看到

美中之間會有激烈的安全競爭

我相信一路上會有危機

涉及南海 東海以及台灣的危機

這是不可避免的

真正重要的問題是

我們能否管控這些危機並避免戰爭

為了台灣而戰

甚至為了南海而戰

都將是一場災難

問題是一旦戰爭開始

可能會很難平息

就像我們在東歐看到的

烏克蘭戰爭 很難平息那場戰爭

所以這就是我真正擔心的

安全競爭會演變成戰爭

我是否認為 在良好管理下

我們能

度過接下來的數年

或數十年而不爆發戰爭?

這很有可能會成真

但也有不小的機會

我們最終會陷入戰爭

你要記住我之前說過的話

東亞的問題是

很容易想像

在南海發生衝突

在東海或在台灣發生衝突

甚至在喜馬拉雅山發生

中印之間的衝突

這與冷戰期間大不相同

當時很難想像在中歐打仗

因為那會非常可怕

所以我再次強調 事實是

你有這些可能會發生的情況

那些衝突不是那麼可怕

沒有中歐戰爭那麼可怕 讓人緊張

可能可以反駁的論點是

我們生活在核武器的世界

即使是在南海或台灣的小衝突

都有升級到核武器的風險

這種威脅應該在很大程度上

防止東亞爆發大國戰爭

這是很有說服力的論點

我一點也不否認這個論點

核武器的存在使戰爭不太可能發生

不過

你甚至可以想像在南海爆發一場戰爭

使用核武器

因為那些核武器

是在海洋中使用的

這與在中歐使用核武器

或在中國大陸使用核武器不同

再說一次 也許戰爭的可能性

比許多相信核革命威懾手段的人

所意識到的要大得多

我的重點是 這是複雜的問題

幾乎不可能得出確切的概率

關於我們發生戰爭的可能性有多大

再者 不言而喻的是

我們將進行安全競爭

而多數時間都會是激烈的安全競爭

但是否會爆發戰爭 我不確定

但我確實認為 這是我的結論

美國在未來幾十年內

與中國開戰的可能性

機率不低