https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeOsTmNDCgI
技术革命 2024 年 9 月 7 日
中国刚刚用这个粉碎了加拿大的生命线，情况即将变得糟糕！贸易世界的情况发生了翻天覆地的变化。在加拿大决定对中国电动汽车 (EV) 征收高额关税后，加拿大和中国陷入了严重的僵局。你猜怎么着？中国并没有坐以待毙。他们以对加拿大油菜籽进口的反倾销调查进行了反击。听起来像是一部紧张惊悚片的情节转折，对吧？但这一切都太真实了，让加拿大农民和政策制定者摸不着头脑。好吧，让我们开始吧。
2024 年 8 月 26 日，加拿大投下了一颗重磅炸弹：对中国电动汽车征收 100% 的关税，对进口钢铁和铝征收 25% 的关税。加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多和他的团队对他们的理由非常清楚。他们指责不公平的贸易行为，说实话，中国出台了一些相当粗暴的环境和劳工标准。这些关税将于10月1日对电动汽车生效，10月15日对钢铁和铝生效。
现在，这个决定并不是突然出现的。特鲁多政府一直在与业内人士进行交谈，包括福特和通用汽车等大公司。他们感受到了当地制造商的压力，他们认为中国产品以非常低的价格充斥市场。因此，政府感受到了采取行动的压力，这反映出加拿大人越来越渴望保护自己的本土免受他们所认为的不公平竞争。让我们来分析一下。加拿大汽车市场已经挤满了外国汽车，尤其是来自亚洲的汽车。 2022 年，加拿大销售的汽车中约有 60% 是进口的，其中很大一部分来自中国。这种转变让加拿大汽车制造商对就业保障以及当地制造业的未来感到有些担忧。随着电动汽车 (EV) 市场预计将爆发——预计到 2026 年将达到 1000 多亿美元——特鲁多政府认为是时候站出来做点什么了。
就这样，中国决定采取强硬态度。他们宣布将对加拿大油菜籽进口展开反倾销调查。关键是：加拿大将其一半以上的油菜籽产量运往中国，使其成为世界上最大的油籽进口国。中国商务部毫不留情，表示他们还将调查一些化学产品。这可是件大事，伙计们！那么，这项调查背后的故事是什么？加拿大油菜籽进口量同比增长了 170%，令人震惊，而价格却一直在下降。这引起了一些中国人的关注，他们认为加拿大可能以不公平的低价倾销油菜籽，这可能会损害他们自己的油菜籽产业。仅在 2023 年，加拿大就向中国出口了价值 34.7 亿美元的油菜籽。这可是一笔不小的钱啊！
为了让您更清楚地了解情况，加拿大在 2022 年生产了约 2000 万公吨油菜籽，其中近 1000 万吨直接运往中国。菜籽油是中国厨房的必备品，可用于从煎炸到沙拉酱等各种用途。因此，如果中国决定征收关税或限制，这可能会给加拿大农民带来真正的冲击。好吧，让我们深入了解这些数字，看看这对经济意味着什么。在中国宣布调查后，郑州商品交易所的菜籽粕期货上涨了 6%。与此同时，11 月交割的 ICE 油菜籽期货合约暴跌 7%，至每公吨 569.7 美元。这种过山车式的波动是任何人都不愿看到的，尤其是在出口方面。据加拿大油菜籽理事会称，从 2023 年 1 月到 6 月，中国占加拿大油菜籽出口的 75%。
这是一笔巨大的业务！该理事会敲响了警钟，强调迅速解决这些贸易紧张局势的重要性。失去这个市场可能会真正伤害加拿大农民，他们中的许多人依靠油菜籽出口来维持农场的平稳运转。但不仅仅是农民为此担心。加拿大经济也可能感受到压力。分析师们对消费者和企业成本上升发出警告，尤其是在依赖进口商品的地区。别忘了加元——它可能会受到打击，因为贸易的不确定性通常会影响货币价值。事实上，加元兑美元已经出现一定程度的疲软，从 1.25 加元兑 1 美元跌至 1.30 加元。这可能会使进口商品价格上涨，并推高通胀。如果人们开始注意到杂货店的价格上涨，这可能会引发一些严重的反弹反对政府。
China Just Crushed Canada's Lifeline With This, And It's About To Get Ugly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeOsTmNDCgI
Tech Revolution 2024年9月7日
China Just Crushed Canada's Lifeline With This, And It's About To Get Ugly!
Things just took a wild turn in the world of trade. Canada and China are in a serious standoff after Canada decided to hit Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) with some hefty tariffs. And guess what? China didn’t sit back and take it. They’ve fired back with an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports. Sounds like a plot twist from a tense thriller, right? But this is all too real, and it’s leaving Canadian farmers and policymakers scratching their heads. Alright, let’s set the stage. On August 26, 2023, Canada dropped a bombshell: a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team were pretty clear about their reasons. They pointed fingers at unfair trading practices and, let’s be honest, some pretty rough environmental and labor standards coming out of China. These tariffs are set to kick in on October 1 for EVs and October 15 for steel and aluminum.
Now, this decision didn’t just come out of nowhere. Trudeau’s government had been chatting with industry players, including big names like Ford and GM. They were feeling the heat from local manufacturers who argued that Chinese products were flooding the market at very low prices. So, the government felt the pressure to act, reflecting a growing desire among Canadians to protect their home turf from what they saw as unfair competition. Let’s break it down a bit. The Canadian car market has been getting pretty crowded with foreign cars, especially from Asia. In 2022, around 60% of the cars sold in Canada were imports, and a big chunk of those came from China. This shift has got Canadian car makers a bit worried about job security and what the future holds for local manufacturing. With the electric vehicle (EV) market expected to blow up—projected to hit over $100 billion by 2026—Trudeau’s government felt it was time to step up and do something.
And just like that, China decided to play hardball. They announced they’d kick off an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports. Here’s the kicker: Canada sends over half of its canola production to China, making them the world’s biggest oilseed importer. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce didn’t hold back, saying they’d also check into some chemical products. This is a big deal, folks! So, what’s the story behind this investigation? Well, there’s been a jaw-dropping 170% jump in Canadian canola imports year-on-year, while prices have been dropping. This raised some eyebrows in China, making them think Canada might be dumping canola at unfairly low prices, which could hurt their own rapeseed industry. In 2023 alone, Canada exported a mind-blowing $3.47 billion worth of canola to China. That’s some serious cash on the line!
To give you a clearer picture, Canada produced about 20 million metric tons of canola in 2022, with nearly 10 million tons heading straight to China. Canola oil is a must-have in Chinese kitchens, used for everything from frying to salad dressings. So, if China decides to slap on tariffs or restrictions, it could really shake things up for Canadian farmers. Alright, let’s dive into the numbers and see what this all means for the economy. After China announced its investigation, rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jumped up by 6%. Meanwhile, the ICE canola contract for November delivery took a nosedive, dropping 7% to $569.7 per metric ton. This kind of rollercoaster ride isn’t what anyone wants to see, especially when it comes to exports. According to the Canola Council of Canada, from January to June 2023, China made up a whopping 75% of Canada’s canola seed exports.
That’s a massive chunk of business! The council is sounding the alarm, stressing how important it is to sort out these trade tensions quickly. Losing that market could really hurt Canadian farmers, many of whom depend on canola exports to keep their farms running smoothly. But it’s not just the farmers who are sweating it. The wider Canadian economy could feel the pinch too. Analysts are waving red flags about rising costs for consumers and businesses, especially in areas that rely on imported goods. And let’s not forget about the Canadian dollar—it could take a hit since uncertainty in trade usually messes with currency values. In fact, the Canadian dollar has already shown some weakness against the U.S. dollar, dropping from 1.25 CAD to 1.30 CAD per USD. This could make imports pricier and push inflation up. If folks start noticing higher prices at the grocery store, it could lead to some serious backlash ag
ainst the government.
