美国其实也面临人口问题。

美国其实也面临人口问题。

美国高中毕业生人数预计2025年达到最高峰，然后

An 11-year downward trend from 2026 to 2037 is likely, with 3.52M high school graduates predicted in 2037. That would represent a -10.4% decrease from 2026 to 2037, dropping production of high school graduates to its lowest levels since 2015.

这个是在全国范围内的，各个地区都在减少，东北部更加明显。

The number of new high school graduates in New England is expected to shrink by nearly 13% by 2037

The number of high school students in New York State is projected to decline by four percent between fall 2021 and fall 2030。

Maine high schools graduated 13,170 students in 2013, and are projected to graduate only 11,180 in 2027, a 15.1% decline.

对于在未来若干年有孩子要上大学的，这倒未必不是个好消息，年龄组人少了，竞争也少了。

但是这对大学可是很要命，特别是小的LAC，这些年本来已经不景气，被COVID打击纷纷倒闭，现在家庭对应高昂的学费，上大学的意愿也在降低。纽约有两所小的LAC这两年倒闭了，物业正在拿出来卖。缅因一所小学校，十年内学生人数下降了50％，不知道还能撑多久。即使在繁华的大城市，私立小学校生存也不容易。哈佛旁边一所小学校，十年内学生减少了43％。

LAC比较普遍的问题是专业设置脱离劳力市场现实，学生花钱念书找不到好工作。

这些学校采取的第一步是压缩不景气的专业，比如

Political science

Sociology

Global studies

Graduate-level photography

Music history.

Jazz.

Visual/studio art.

Communication studies.

Film studies.

Public relations.

Public health.

Master’s in public health.

Digital marketing-to-MBA graduate program.

Master’s in higher education leadership.

当然这只能暂时维持，因为学生少了学校固定资产还需要维持，不是长远之计。还是得靠多开实用的专业学生念了划算才会有人来。