尼尔·布什：中国的发展道路非常适合中国
中国日报网 2024-10-09
中国日报网10月9日电 近日，乔治·布什美中关系基金会创始人及主席尼尔·布什在接受CGTN采访时表示，通过自己在过去几十年间的访华经历，他得出了让一些美国人无法忍受的结论：中国的发展道路非常适合中国。
尼尔·布什是美国前总统老布什的第三个儿子。过去 50 年，尼尔曾经150次来到中国，他总结说：“中国的体制对中国来说是行之有效的，大多数美国人可能甚至无法容忍我这么说，中国的体制让数亿人受益。”
尼尔表示，近期中美关系之所以处于低点，原因很简单，中国正在崛起，而美国政客编造了偏执的“虚假叙事” 。
哈佛大学某位教授在其《注定一战》书中研究了 16 个历史案例，认为崛起大国与老牌强国之所以会爆发战争，是因为老牌强国感到了崛起大国带来的威胁，在过去 600 年中，这 16 个案例中有 12 个以战争告终。
美国一些政客随之编造了谎言，说崛起大国想要接管世界，成为地球上最强大的力量，或者崛起大国将接管美国经济……诸如此类的虚假言论。
尼尔表示，类似的虚假言论被广泛散布，他并不相信中国的崛起会对美国构成威胁，如果更多的美国人可以来到中国看看，就会自己做出判断，而不必听信美国政治精英的宣传和煽动，把中国描绘成某种魔鬼。
尼尔认为，中国对美国没有敌意，而是美国自己把中国变成了敌人。
世界各国都会加强国防。随着中国的不断发展，其军事实力显然也会随之增强。因而有人担忧中国“是否有可能以某种敌对方式针对美国”，尼尔认为这根本不是中国的意图。
尼尔强调，他的父亲从不认为中国是美国的敌人，“如果你这样对待朋友，最终可能会把朋友变成敌人，但如果我们最终卷入某种冲突，这对两国和世界来说都是毁灭性的。”
最后，尼尔表示，加强与中国的贸易实际上非常健康，对美国消费者有利，对美国有利，中美将实现双赢。美国人民最终会认识到中国不是所谓的“坏人”。
尼尔·布什：美国正处于一个疯狂的时代，他对中国的看法令人震惊 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KsVuYnbf_Y&t=103s 2024年10月25日 乔治·布什美中关系基金会创始人及主席。美国前总统老布什第3子，小布什弟弟，从事银行、石油、贸易等行业。在接受中国记者采访时，他对美国大选、中美关系和美国对中国的认知发表了自己的观点是的，不幸的是，美国的政治已经变得非常黑白分明，分裂，他赢了，我们输了，所以有人担心，因为中国的崛起，我们会以某种方式改变，或者以某种方式改变，无论如何我们生活在其中在美国的疯狂时光，我只是与你分享一件事，就像我们几天前刚刚去过我们，你做到了是的，我在纽约，我环顾四周是否有一辆中国汽车，但不幸的是我没有看到任何中国电动车都会很难中国汽车公司在美国站稳脚跟，特别是如果唐纳德·特朗普当选总统，他坚持对中国汽车征收关税，即使是在墨西哥生产的汽车，不是中国制造的，而是在墨西哥生产的，关税也将达到 100%所以他害怕中国人与中国人的竞争，所以很难想象中国汽车会进入美国市场，顺便说一句，我的看法是关税
伤害了美国消费者，我 100% 有信心中国人制造的新能源汽车是最好的，我参观过 Cherry 的生产工厂，对那里的团队非常了解，我也读了很多关于比亚迪和其他公司的文章，所以对于美国人而言没有意识到高质量、合理价格的好处，你知道续航里程更长的电动汽车或混合动力汽车，这太糟糕了，我，这是不幸的，因为你知道我们共和党人曾经相信开放获取，免费你知道开放贸易，只要是公平贸易，现在我们的共和党已经被一个关税官员接管了，是的，特朗普说，如果他赢了，他不仅会对电动汽车征收更多的税，还会对其他所有好的东西征收更多的税你认为这会引发与中国的第二次贸易战吗？当然，这损害了美国，也损害了中国，所以我对贸易战不太了解，我不是经济学家，所以我不确定我会使用贸易战这个词，但它会使贸易变得非常困难，嗯，会惩罚这里的消费者和美国的制造商消费者以及中国的制造商，你知道我发现了什么，这是选举中唯一的好消息到目前为止，终于有经济学家在《纽约时报》和其他出版物上发表关于关税的专栏文章，他们正确地指出，关税不是由中国支付的，而是美国消费者认为，随着价格上涨，他们指出，关税根本不是特朗普声称对美国有利，所以现在他的关税被揭穿的消息越来越公开，这是令人鼓舞的，所以我们会看看它是否会产生影响，你知道我我绝对不是特朗普的粉丝，因为我认为他的经济政策对美国非常有害，比哈里斯更有害，哈里斯是民主党人，我在一个共和党家庭长大，但你知道我支持特朗普我认为这对经济的影响比哈里斯更糟，希望哈里斯能获胜，就像中美之间的经济关系是中美关系的压舱石，现在这种关系似乎受到了伤害，这会如何影响中美关系，我的意思是两国关系将继续呈螺旋式上升趋势，我父亲经常说，中美关系是世界上最重要的双边关系，他是对的，我父亲认识到中国已经成为世界第二大经济体世界上数亿人摆脱贫困，很大程度上得益于我们的双边贸易关系，作为一个热爱自由的美国人，这是值得骄傲的一件大事，因为中国有更多人享受自由。1975 年，我来到这里，当时正值文化大革命。想象一下，49 年前我第一次来到这里，今天人们享受着经济自由，这和现在有什么不同。当他们达到一定的财富水平时，他们就有自由送孩子上学、旅行和选择自己想从事的行业，找到令人满意的工作，因此出现了大规模的自由运动。在共产主义中国，这个词可能比较敏感，但对我来说，这是一项了不起的成就，我们应该为此感到自豪。另一方面，美国已经成为世界上最大的经济体，国内生产总值最高，人均国内生产总值最高。按人均计算，我们的经济规模远高于中国，这在很大程度上是因为全球化，而我们在全球化中的主要合作伙伴一直是中国，所以我们有一个双赢n 环境直到最近，中国的崛起才在美国引发了对我们的国家安全和生活方式的真正恐惧，你知道，如果你听到政客们谈论，你知道，就像共产党人将要出现并接管美国，共产主义这个词曾经意味着你知道你为冷战创造了共产主义，共产主义曾经是一种当你想到马列主义的共产主义时会想到的东西，当今存在的共产主义是一种非常不同的共产主义，它具有市场导向，具有资本主义元素，具有社会主义元素，你知道，在这种共产主义形式下，人民的福祉确实得到了显着改善，但美国政客们以非常贬义的方式使用这个词，人们担心由于中国的崛起，我们会以某种方式改变或改变，你知道这是一种零和游戏，如果你赢了我们就会输，好吧，这不是真的，如果你赢了我们赢
如果我们赢了，你也赢了，你知道每个人都赢了，有一种情况是，我们都可以赢，嗯，你像个学者一样，Thon 刚刚在另一次采访中告诉我，他说大多数美国人不相信自己会赢，因为在体育运动中，没有人只有一个赢家，一个赢家，你怎么看待这种修辞，我担心，这种分析在今天是正确的，人们很好地理解了特朗普说，他说你知道他们在赢，我们在输，谈论中国是的，我希望美国有领导人，我的父亲是一位领导人，他会向人们解释关于关系的真相，你可以让一家公司一个国家发展并实现繁荣，而另一个国家也可以发展并实现繁荣，你也可以拥有双赢的局面，是的，不幸的是，美国的政治已经变得非常黑白分明，分裂，你知道他赢了我们输了，你知道有很多威胁性对话共和党人说卡玛拉哈里斯是共产主义同志，她会让我们的经济陷入深渊，你知道，民主党或共和党人说特朗普是一个想要成为独裁者的人，你知道，他除了自己的自我和自己之外，对其他任何事情都没有看法，无论如何，我们生活在美国的疯狂时代，是的，你谈论自由和全球化，现在中国很多人认为我们是全球化的领导者，这个想法得到了西方的集体认同，但现在中国是全球化的大力支持者，而美国支持保护主义，你怎么看这个陈德我最近听了一个经济学家的播客，他解释说，由于美国人口被剥夺了权利，你知道唐纳德特朗普正在利用美国许多人被抛在后面的感觉他们是黑尔家族和富人，富人被误导，认为因为中国因为全球化抢走了我们的工作，他们的生活被削弱了，他们得不到同样的待遇，所以整个全球化的概念已经变成了意味着某些东西被从你身上夺走了，有很多美国人过得并不好，因此很容易受到这样的信息的影响，那就是这是他们的错，我们要阻止它，我们不会和他们做贸易，或者我们要提高关税，从他们那里得到钱，你知道他们的言论试图利用美国人现在心理上的弱点，那就是很多人受苦，我确实认为收入差距是一个问题，有些人非常贫穷，有些人过得更好，显然，这在中国可能也是如此，但中国解决这个问题的另一种方式是美国，你知道，你是否认为这是一个国内问题，或者与其指责中国，不如说，这肯定有国内问题的根源，但中国是一个容易的目标，它是一个容易的替罪羊，你知道吗？我的意思是，两党都在对中国进行攻击和打击，你看到了疯狂的中国周，第 25 项法案通过了，是的，我确实认为这很疯狂，我认为有很多 F，我知道很多研究中国发展和美中关系的学者，他们认为关于中国崛起意图的错误说法，人们担心中国会取代美国成为全球维和部队，或具有全球影响力，或者中国会改变我们的生活方式，或者共产主义会渗透到美国政治体系中不管怎样，从文化角度来说，我们都会改变，你知道，因为虚假的叙述，人们会感到恐惧，不幸的是，你知道，在社交媒体和通信领域，我们拥有自由，我无法想象我们如何才能从真实的新闻中剔除虚假新闻，我不确定美国是否已经接近解决这个问题，是的，但正如你所说，美国是一个自由的国家，为什么收集这些信息如此困难在一个信息自由流通的国家，关于中国的问题，这就是我要问你的问题，你为什么认为我不知道，我认为因为我们的自由，人们可以说任何他们想说的话，不管它是真是假，如果你说得足够多，它就会变成真理，唐纳德·特朗普一遍又一遍地说，中国人在为关税买单，中国人在为关税买单，我们知道经济学家都知道，所有有思想的人都知道，美国消费者在为关税买单，而不是中国，中国正因关税而受到惩罚，制造业因关税而受到打击，这肯定会对中国产生负面影响，但这些关税的支付来自美国，但如果你一遍又一遍地说某件事，它就会变成真理，至少没有办法纠正这个真理不，你不能挥动魔杖，你不能制定法律或立法，你知道这迫使人们相信那是假的，这是真的，你知道我的意思，是的，人们相信，在美国，许多人相信选举是一个骗局，是一个欺诈，而且特朗普大获全胜，他并没有大获全胜，这已经明确确立，所有这些州的选举结果都得到了一个又一个的法庭案件的确认，但特朗普一遍又一遍地说，他的人民相信它，我不，我不明白，在这样一个时代，我们拥有如此惊人的沟通和透明度，任何人都可以轻松获得信息，嗯，这些虚假的叙述仍然在继续传播，而且你无法清理它，我希望有一种方法可以挥动魔杖，中国人民非常好奇，说我们这里的公平竞争是什么人们总是在谈论公平竞争，我的最后一个问题是，公平竞争是一个有趣的问题，因为我在中国工作了很多年，最近我也在沙特阿拉伯呆了很多时间，我注意到在发展新经济部门的国家，政府在提供早期资金方面发挥着重要作用，所以在沙特阿拉伯，他们有一个主权基金，叫做 piff PF，私人投资基金，例如，他们启动了一个新的汽车制造部门，而 piff 投入了所有的钱来创办一家名为 sear 的公司，他们投入了最大的一笔资金，也许是所有的钱，用于另一家电动汽车公司，这家公司在美国有制造基地，但正在建设制造业，所以他们正在建立一个完整的行业，引入供应链等，把所有这些钱都投入进去，这样的想法是，在某个时候，汽车业务，汽车制造生态系统将会变得如此之大它将自然地有机增长，无需政府援助，所以政府我的观点是，主权基金，无论是来自安威省的省级基金，帮助启动汽车行业或某种高科技企业，或者无论是国家基金，这些投资的基金被美国人和其他人视为不公平贸易的范畴，因为这些汽车公司或其他公司获得了政府补贴或政府投资资本，以确保它们能够成功，所以我想问人们的问题是，这真的不公平吗，还是只是聪明的做法，我的意思是，我住在一个叫德克萨斯州的州，我们有一个非常美丽的州，非常自由的经济，我们拥有最大的石油和天然气资源，我们还有最大的风能和太阳能，我们像沙特阿拉伯一样拥有丰富的能源，我认为，如果我们是德克萨斯州州长，我会组建一个主权基金，德克萨斯州的一个基金，我会投资于电动汽车制造或混合动力汽车制造等。我并不是长期看好电动汽车，我认为尤其是在美国，我认为续航里程很长的混合动力汽车更有意义，但我会先播种，然后让它自己起飞，因为那应该是可以的，我不会认为那是不公平的贸易，我会认为那是明智的贸易，嗯，我确实相信，虽然你知道，直接补贴产品只是为了打败海外的价格，当然，在那种直接干预的情况下，你必须切断它，嗯，而不是认为那是不公平的，应该全面公平，所以是的，长期疯狂，回答是的
尼尔布什：美国正处于一个疯狂的时代 他对中国的看法让人震惊
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KsVuYnbf_Y&t=103s
2024年10月25日
乔治.布什美中关系基金会创始人及主席。美国前总统老布什第3子，小布什弟弟，从事银行、石油、贸易等行业。在接受中国记者采访时，他对美国大选、中美关系和美国对中国的认知发表了自己的看法
yeah unfortunately the politics in America have become very black and white and divisive and he wins we lose and so there's a fear uh because of China's rise that we're going to be changed
somehow or altered somehow anyway we we live in crazy times in America I just one thing sharing with you is like we we just been to us in a couple days ago and you did yeah I I was
in New York and I looking around whether there's a Chinese car over there but unfortunately I didn't saw any Chinese EV um it's
going to be very hard for Chinese car
companies to establish a strong foothold
in the United States and especially if
Donald Trump is elected president he
insists that the Chinese cars tariffs on
Chinese cars even cars made in Mexico
not made in China but made in Mexico the
tariffs going to be 100% so he's he's
afraid of Chinese of competition with
the Chinese so yeah it's going to be
hard to imagine getting Chinese cars
into the American Market yeah and my
opinion by the way is that the tariffs
hurt American consumers I'm I'm 100%
confident that the Chinese make make the
best new energy Vehicles I've been on a
tour of the Cherry manufacturing plant
in woohoo and know the the the team
there very well and I read a lot of
articles about byd and others um and so
for the Americans not to realize the
benefit of high quality reasonably
priced you know longer range electric
vehicles or hybrid vehicles it's too bad
I it's it's it's it's a you know it's
unfortunate cuz you know we used to
Republicans used to believe in having
you know Open Access having free you
know open trade and so long as it's fair
trade and right now our Republican party
has been taken over by a by a tariff man
yeah and the Trump said that if he wins
he will put much more tar not only on EVS but also other good
everything do you think this will
trigger a second trade war with China of
course it damages the United States and
it damages China so I I don't know about
a trade War I'm not I'm not an economist
so I'm not sure I would use that term
trade War but it would make trade very
difficult and um and would punish
consumers here and manufact consumers in
the United States and manufacturers in
China you know what I what I'm finding
and it's kind of the only good news from
the election so far is that is that
there there are economists finally
speaking out and writing oped pieces in
the New York Times and in other
Publications about the tariffs and the
they point out properly that the tariffs
um aren't paid for by China they're paid
for by the American Consumer that with
Rising prices and they point out that that the
tariffs um are are not at all what Trump
claims in terms of of um you know
benefit to to the United States so the
debunking of his tariffs is becoming
more public now which which is
encouraging so we'll see we'll see if it
has makes an impact you know I'm I'm
definitely not a trump fan because I
think his economic policies are would
would be very harmful to to theit be
more harmful to the United States than
than Harris and Harris is a Democrat and
I was raised in a republican family but
you know I Trump I think it be worse for
the economy than Harris and hopefully
Harris will win like the economy
relation between China and US was the B
ballast of the C us relations and now
this relations seems be hurting and how
will this affect the China us relations
I mean it will continue to to have the
relationship bil relationship spiral my
father often said that the US China
relationship is the most consequential
the most important bilateral
relationship in the world and he was
right U my father recognized that China
has become the second largest economy in
the world lifting hundreds of millions
of people out of poverty in large
measure because of our bilateral trade
ties which is something as a freedom
loving American is is is a great thing
to take great pride in because more
people in China enjoy freedoms I was
here in 1975 during the cultural
revolution imagine the differences from
49 years ago when I first came to today
today when people enjoy economic
Prosperity when they achieve a certain
level of of wealth their the freedoms to
send kids to schools and to travel and
to pick you know businesses you want to
engage in and find work that's
satisfactory goes up so there there's
been a massive movement Freedom Movement
you that may be a sensitive word to be
using in in communist China but to me
it's a remarkable accomplishment that we
should take pride in you know on the
other hand America has become the
largest economy in the world with the
largest GDP with the largest per capita
GDP much larger than China's economy on
a per capita basis and it in large part
was happened because of globalization
and our major partner in globalization
was has been China so we've had a
win-win environment up until recently
China's rise has created real fear in
America about our national security our
way of life you know you if you hear
politicians talk you know it's like the
Communists are going to come up and take
over America and the word communist used
to mean you know you created for the
Cold War you communism used to be kind
of the what you would think of when you
think of malist kind of Communism the
communism that exists today is a very
different it has Market orientation it
has capitalist elements it has socialist
elements has you know the well-being of
people has really improv significantly
under this form of Communism but the
American politicians use the word in a
very derogatory negative way there's a
fear uh because of China's rise that
we're going to be changed somehow or
altered somehow you know it's kind of a
zero sum game if you win we lose well
that's that's not true if you win we win
if if we win you win you know everybody
wins there's a scenario out there where
we both can winh mhm U like a scholar
Thon just told me in another interview
he said that most American people don't
believe wi win because in a sports like
no one only one winner One winner how do
you see this kind of retoric I'm afraid
that that analysis is true today that
people perceive well Trump says it he
says you know they're winning we're
losing in talking about China yeah I
wish there were leaders in America my
father was a leader where he would
explain to the the people the truth
about relationships that you that you could
have you know one company one country
grow and Achieve prosperity and the
other one can grow and Achieve
Prosperity also that you can have
winning scenarios yeah unfor fortunately
the politics in America have become very
you know black and white and divisive
and you know he wins we lose and you
know there's been a lot of threatening
conversation Republicans say that kamla
Harris is a is a communist comrade
Kamala and that she's going to make our
economy go into a deep hole you know and
the Democrat or Republicans say that
Trump is a you know wannabe dictator and
you know he has no no perspective on
anything but his own ego and his own
self anyway we we live in crazy times in
America yeah you talk about freedom and
the globalization for many people here
in China now think actually us was the
leader of globalization and the idea was
shared by the collective West but now
China is a big supporter of
globalization and the US is in favor of
protectionism how do you see this chend
I was recently listened to a podcast
from an economist that explained that
because of the disenfranchised uh population in America
you know there's a Donald Trump is
exploiting a feeling in America among
many many people that they've been left
behind so they're the Hales and the have
knots and the have knots are being led
to believe that because of China's
taking our jobs because of globalization
their lot in life has been weakened
they're not getting the same so the
whole notion of
globalization um has become where it
become to mean something that's been
taken from you and there there are a lot
of people in America that that are not
doing as well and therefore are
vulnerable to a message that says it's
their fault we're going to stop it we're
not going to do trade with them or we're
going to raise tariffs get money from
them you know they're the rhetoric is
trying to play to that weakness um in
the American psyche right now that that
that many people suffer I do think there
is a problem with income disparity there
are some very poor people and there are
some people that are doing better
obviously and that's probably true in
China as well but China has a different
way of addressing it America is is you
know do you believe it's a domestic
problem or rather than blaming China it
definitely has the seeds of it are
domestic but China is an easy um Target
it's an easy uh scapegoat you know what
I mean it's it's so both parties are
piling on and beating up China you saw
the crazy China week 25 bills passed to
against China yeah yeah I do think it's
crazy I think there's a lot of F I know
many scholars who are experts on on
China China's development and us China
relations who believe that the false
narratives about China's intentions as
China Rises there's a fear that China CH
you know will want to take take
America's place in the as a global
Peacekeeper in the world or with global
influence or that China's going to
change our way of life or the communism
is going to slip into the American
political system somehow or culturally
we're going to change you know there
there's there's all these fears because
of false narratives and um unfortunately
you know with the freedom we have in
social media and Communications I can't
imagine how we can you know weed out
fake from real news I I'm not sure that
America has come close to solving the
problem yeah but you as you said America
is a free country why it's so difficult
to gather the truths about China in a
country with FL free flow of information
I that's my question I'm going to ask
you why do you think that I have no idea
I was I think that that because of our
freedoms people can say anything they
want whether it's true or not and if you
say it often enough it becomes truth
Donald Trump has said over and over and
over again that t that the Chinese are
paying for the tariffs the Chinese are
paying for the tariffs we know
economists know everyone who who's got a
who can think for themselves knows that
the American consumers are paying for
the tariffs not China China's is being
punished through tariffs in the
manufacturing is being hit because of
tariffs for sure there's a negative
impact on China but there's a a but the
payment for these tariffs is coming from
America but if you say something over
and over and over again it becomes
truth and there's no way to correct that
truth at least there's no you can't wave
a magic wand you can't make a law or
legislation you know that forces people
to believe that that's false and this is
true you know what I mean yeah people
believe in America many people believe
that the election was was a was a hoax
was a fraud and that there was that that
Trump won big he didn't win big it was
it become clearly established there were
court cases after court case that were
validated the election results in all
these states and yet Trump says it over
and over and over again and his people
believe it I don't I don't understand it
in a day and age where we have such
amazing Communications and transparency
where anybody can get information
easily um still these these false
narratives continue to be propagated and
there's and you can't clean it up I I
wish there was a way to wave that magic
wand people are very curious here in
China saying what is the Fair
competition here us people are always
talking about Fair competition my last
question yeah um Fair competition is an
interesting question because um I've
been doing work here in China for many
years I've also recently been spending a
lot of time in Saudi Arabia and I've
noticed that in countries that are
developing New Economic sectors that the
government plays an important role in
providing um early funding so in Saudi
Arabia they've got a sovereign fund
called piff PF the private investment
fund and they for example started a new
car set automobile Manufacturing sector
and piff put up all the money to start a
company called sear they put up the
biggest chunk maybe all the money uh for
another electric vehicle company that's
got um manufacturing base in the United
States but is building manufacturing so
they're building a whole sector bringing
in supply chain Etc putting all this
money in the idea is that at some point
the car business the car manufacturing
ecosystem will be so big that it will
grow naturally organically without
government Aid so government my my point
is that Sovereign funds whether they're
provincial funds from Anway Province
helping start a car sector or a you know
high-tech business of some kind U or or
whether it's a National Fund those funds
that are invested are perceived by
Americans and by others to be kind of in
the category of unfair trade because
because these car companies or these
other companies were given kind of you
know government subsidies or government
um investment Capital to to ensure that
they would be successful so my question
that I would ask people is it is it
really unfair or is it just smart I mean
I live in a state called Texas we have a
very beautiful state very free economy
we have the largest um you know
petroleum and natural gas resources we
also have the largest wind and Sun where
we we have we're bless like Saudi Arabia
with lots of energy I would think that
if our were governor of Texas I would
form a sovereign fund a state of Texas
fund and I would invest in things like
electric vehicle manufacturing or hybrid
vehicle manufacturing I'm not really a
big believer long-term in electric
vehicles I think especially in America I
think hybrid cars that can get very long
range make more sense but I would I
would seed a build it up and then let it take off on
its own because that's that should be
okay and that I wouldn't consider that
unfair trade I would consider it smart
trade um I do believe though you know
where there's direct subsidy on products
just to beat the price overseas of
course where there's that kind of direct
intervention yes you got to you got to
cut it off and um and not and consider
that unfair and there should be fairness
across the board so yes long crazy
answer yes
尼尔·布什是美国前总统老布什的第三个儿子。过去 50 年，尼尔曾经150次来到中国，他总结说：“中国的体制对中国来说是行之有效的，大多数美国人可能甚至无法容忍我这么说，中国的体制让数亿人受益。”
尼尔表示，近期中美关系之所以处于低点，原因很简单，中国正在崛起，而美国政客编造了偏执的“虚假叙事” 。
哈佛大学某位教授在其《注定一战》书中研究了 16 个历史案例，认为崛起大国与老牌强国之所以会爆发战争，是因为老牌强国感到了崛起大国带来的威胁，在过去 600 年中，这 16 个案例中有 12 个以战争告终。
美国一些政客随之编造了谎言，说崛起大国想要接管世界，成为地球上最强大的力量，或者崛起大国将接管美国经济……诸如此类的虚假言论。
尼尔表示，类似的虚假言论被广泛散布，他并不相信中国的崛起会对美国构成威胁，如果更多的美国人可以来到中国看看，就会自己做出判断，而不必听信美国政治精英的宣传和煽动，把中国描绘成某种魔鬼。
尼尔认为，中国对美国没有敌意，而是美国自己把中国变成了敌人。
世界各国都会加强国防。随着中国的不断发展，其军事实力显然也会随之增强。因而有人担忧中国“是否有可能以某种敌对方式针对美国”，尼尔认为这根本不是中国的意图。
尼尔强调，他的父亲从不认为中国是美国的敌人，“如果你这样对待朋友，最终可能会把朋友变成敌人，但如果我们最终卷入某种冲突，这对两国和世界来说都是毁灭性的。”
最后，尼尔表示，加强与中国的贸易实际上非常健康，对美国消费者有利，对美国有利，中美将实现双赢。美国人民最终会认识到中国不是所谓的“坏人”。
尼尔·布什：美国正处于一个疯狂的时代，他对中国的看法令人震惊 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KsVuYnbf_Y&t=103s 2024年10月25日 乔治·布什美中关系基金会创始人及主席。美国前总统老布什第3子，小布什弟弟，从事银行、石油、贸易等行业。在接受中国记者采访时，他对美国大选、中美关系和美国对中国的认知发表了自己的观点是的，不幸的是，美国的政治已经变得非常黑白分明，分裂，他赢了，我们输了，所以有人担心，因为中国的崛起，我们会以某种方式改变，或者以某种方式改变，无论如何我们生活在其中在美国的疯狂时光，我只是与你分享一件事，就像我们几天前刚刚去过我们，你做到了是的，我在纽约，我环顾四周是否有一辆中国汽车，但不幸的是我没有看到任何中国电动车都会很难中国汽车公司在美国站稳脚跟，特别是如果唐纳德·特朗普当选总统，他坚持对中国汽车征收关税，即使是在墨西哥生产的汽车，不是中国制造的，而是在墨西哥生产的，关税也将达到 100%所以他害怕中国人与中国人的竞争，所以很难想象中国汽车会进入美国市场，顺便说一句，我的看法是关税
伤害了美国消费者，我 100% 有信心中国人制造的新能源汽车是最好的，我参观过 Cherry 的生产工厂，对那里的团队非常了解，我也读了很多关于比亚迪和其他公司的文章，所以对于美国人而言没有意识到高质量、合理价格的好处，你知道续航里程更长的电动汽车或混合动力汽车，这太糟糕了，我，这是不幸的，因为你知道我们共和党人曾经相信开放获取，免费你知道开放贸易，只要是公平贸易，现在我们的共和党已经被一个关税官员接管了，是的，特朗普说，如果他赢了，他不仅会对电动汽车征收更多的税，还会对其他所有好的东西征收更多的税你认为这会引发与中国的第二次贸易战吗？当然，这损害了美国，也损害了中国，所以我对贸易战不太了解，我不是经济学家，所以我不确定我会使用贸易战这个词，但它会使贸易变得非常困难，嗯，会惩罚这里的消费者和美国的制造商消费者以及中国的制造商，你知道我发现了什么，这是选举中唯一的好消息到目前为止，终于有经济学家在《纽约时报》和其他出版物上发表关于关税的专栏文章，他们正确地指出，关税不是由中国支付的，而是美国消费者认为，随着价格上涨，他们指出，关税根本不是特朗普声称对美国有利，所以现在他的关税被揭穿的消息越来越公开，这是令人鼓舞的，所以我们会看看它是否会产生影响，你知道我我绝对不是特朗普的粉丝，因为我认为他的经济政策对美国非常有害，比哈里斯更有害，哈里斯是民主党人，我在一个共和党家庭长大，但你知道我支持特朗普我认为这对经济的影响比哈里斯更糟，希望哈里斯能获胜，就像中美之间的经济关系是中美关系的压舱石，现在这种关系似乎受到了伤害，这会如何影响中美关系，我的意思是两国关系将继续呈螺旋式上升趋势，我父亲经常说，中美关系是世界上最重要的双边关系，他是对的，我父亲认识到中国已经成为世界第二大经济体世界上数亿人摆脱贫困，很大程度上得益于我们的双边贸易关系，作为一个热爱自由的美国人，这是值得骄傲的一件大事，因为中国有更多人享受自由。1975 年，我来到这里，当时正值文化大革命。想象一下，49 年前我第一次来到这里，今天人们享受着经济自由，这和现在有什么不同。当他们达到一定的财富水平时，他们就有自由送孩子上学、旅行和选择自己想从事的行业，找到令人满意的工作，因此出现了大规模的自由运动。在共产主义中国，这个词可能比较敏感，但对我来说，这是一项了不起的成就，我们应该为此感到自豪。另一方面，美国已经成为世界上最大的经济体，国内生产总值最高，人均国内生产总值最高。按人均计算，我们的经济规模远高于中国，这在很大程度上是因为全球化，而我们在全球化中的主要合作伙伴一直是中国，所以我们有一个双赢n 环境直到最近，中国的崛起才在美国引发了对我们的国家安全和生活方式的真正恐惧，你知道，如果你听到政客们谈论，你知道，就像共产党人将要出现并接管美国，共产主义这个词曾经意味着你知道你为冷战创造了共产主义，共产主义曾经是一种当你想到马列主义的共产主义时会想到的东西，当今存在的共产主义是一种非常不同的共产主义，它具有市场导向，具有资本主义元素，具有社会主义元素，你知道，在这种共产主义形式下，人民的福祉确实得到了显着改善，但美国政客们以非常贬义的方式使用这个词，人们担心由于中国的崛起，我们会以某种方式改变或改变，你知道这是一种零和游戏，如果你赢了我们就会输，好吧，这不是真的，如果你赢了我们赢
如果我们赢了，你也赢了，你知道每个人都赢了，有一种情况是，我们都可以赢，嗯，你像个学者一样，Thon 刚刚在另一次采访中告诉我，他说大多数美国人不相信自己会赢，因为在体育运动中，没有人只有一个赢家，一个赢家，你怎么看待这种修辞，我担心，这种分析在今天是正确的，人们很好地理解了特朗普说，他说你知道他们在赢，我们在输，谈论中国是的，我希望美国有领导人，我的父亲是一位领导人，他会向人们解释关于关系的真相，你可以让一家公司一个国家发展并实现繁荣，而另一个国家也可以发展并实现繁荣，你也可以拥有双赢的局面，是的，不幸的是，美国的政治已经变得非常黑白分明，分裂，你知道他赢了我们输了，你知道有很多威胁性对话共和党人说卡玛拉哈里斯是共产主义同志，她会让我们的经济陷入深渊，你知道，民主党或共和党人说特朗普是一个想要成为独裁者的人，你知道，他除了自己的自我和自己之外，对其他任何事情都没有看法，无论如何，我们生活在美国的疯狂时代，是的，你谈论自由和全球化，现在中国很多人认为我们是全球化的领导者，这个想法得到了西方的集体认同，但现在中国是全球化的大力支持者，而美国支持保护主义，你怎么看这个陈德我最近听了一个经济学家的播客，他解释说，由于美国人口被剥夺了权利，你知道唐纳德特朗普正在利用美国许多人被抛在后面的感觉他们是黑尔家族和富人，富人被误导，认为因为中国因为全球化抢走了我们的工作，他们的生活被削弱了，他们得不到同样的待遇，所以整个全球化的概念已经变成了意味着某些东西被从你身上夺走了，有很多美国人过得并不好，因此很容易受到这样的信息的影响，那就是这是他们的错，我们要阻止它，我们不会和他们做贸易，或者我们要提高关税，从他们那里得到钱，你知道他们的言论试图利用美国人现在心理上的弱点，那就是很多人受苦，我确实认为收入差距是一个问题，有些人非常贫穷，有些人过得更好，显然，这在中国可能也是如此，但中国解决这个问题的另一种方式是美国，你知道，你是否认为这是一个国内问题，或者与其指责中国，不如说，这肯定有国内问题的根源，但中国是一个容易的目标，它是一个容易的替罪羊，你知道吗？我的意思是，两党都在对中国进行攻击和打击，你看到了疯狂的中国周，第 25 项法案通过了，是的，我确实认为这很疯狂，我认为有很多 F，我知道很多研究中国发展和美中关系的学者，他们认为关于中国崛起意图的错误说法，人们担心中国会取代美国成为全球维和部队，或具有全球影响力，或者中国会改变我们的生活方式，或者共产主义会渗透到美国政治体系中不管怎样，从文化角度来说，我们都会改变，你知道，因为虚假的叙述，人们会感到恐惧，不幸的是，你知道，在社交媒体和通信领域，我们拥有自由，我无法想象我们如何才能从真实的新闻中剔除虚假新闻，我不确定美国是否已经接近解决这个问题，是的，但正如你所说，美国是一个自由的国家，为什么收集这些信息如此困难在一个信息自由流通的国家，关于中国的问题，这就是我要问你的问题，你为什么认为我不知道，我认为因为我们的自由，人们可以说任何他们想说的话，不管它是真是假，如果你说得足够多，它就会变成真理，唐纳德·特朗普一遍又一遍地说，中国人在为关税买单，中国人在为关税买单，我们知道经济学家都知道，所有有思想的人都知道，美国消费者在为关税买单，而不是中国，中国正因关税而受到惩罚，制造业因关税而受到打击，这肯定会对中国产生负面影响，但这些关税的支付来自美国，但如果你一遍又一遍地说某件事，它就会变成真理，至少没有办法纠正这个真理不，你不能挥动魔杖，你不能制定法律或立法，你知道这迫使人们相信那是假的，这是真的，你知道我的意思，是的，人们相信，在美国，许多人相信选举是一个骗局，是一个欺诈，而且特朗普大获全胜，他并没有大获全胜，这已经明确确立，所有这些州的选举结果都得到了一个又一个的法庭案件的确认，但特朗普一遍又一遍地说，他的人民相信它，我不，我不明白，在这样一个时代，我们拥有如此惊人的沟通和透明度，任何人都可以轻松获得信息，嗯，这些虚假的叙述仍然在继续传播，而且你无法清理它，我希望有一种方法可以挥动魔杖，中国人民非常好奇，说我们这里的公平竞争是什么人们总是在谈论公平竞争，我的最后一个问题是，公平竞争是一个有趣的问题，因为我在中国工作了很多年，最近我也在沙特阿拉伯呆了很多时间，我注意到在发展新经济部门的国家，政府在提供早期资金方面发挥着重要作用，所以在沙特阿拉伯，他们有一个主权基金，叫做 piff PF，私人投资基金，例如，他们启动了一个新的汽车制造部门，而 piff 投入了所有的钱来创办一家名为 sear 的公司，他们投入了最大的一笔资金，也许是所有的钱，用于另一家电动汽车公司，这家公司在美国有制造基地，但正在建设制造业，所以他们正在建立一个完整的行业，引入供应链等，把所有这些钱都投入进去，这样的想法是，在某个时候，汽车业务，汽车制造生态系统将会变得如此之大它将自然地有机增长，无需政府援助，所以政府我的观点是，主权基金，无论是来自安威省的省级基金，帮助启动汽车行业或某种高科技企业，或者无论是国家基金，这些投资的基金被美国人和其他人视为不公平贸易的范畴，因为这些汽车公司或其他公司获得了政府补贴或政府投资资本，以确保它们能够成功，所以我想问人们的问题是，这真的不公平吗，还是只是聪明的做法，我的意思是，我住在一个叫德克萨斯州的州，我们有一个非常美丽的州，非常自由的经济，我们拥有最大的石油和天然气资源，我们还有最大的风能和太阳能，我们像沙特阿拉伯一样拥有丰富的能源，我认为，如果我们是德克萨斯州州长，我会组建一个主权基金，德克萨斯州的一个基金，我会投资于电动汽车制造或混合动力汽车制造等。我并不是长期看好电动汽车，我认为尤其是在美国，我认为续航里程很长的混合动力汽车更有意义，但我会先播种，然后让它自己起飞，因为那应该是可以的，我不会认为那是不公平的贸易，我会认为那是明智的贸易，嗯，我确实相信，虽然你知道，直接补贴产品只是为了打败海外的价格，当然，在那种直接干预的情况下，你必须切断它，嗯，而不是认为那是不公平的，应该全面公平，所以是的，长期疯狂，回答是的
尼尔布什：美国正处于一个疯狂的时代 他对中国的看法让人震惊
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KsVuYnbf_Y&t=103s
2024年10月25日
乔治.布什美中关系基金会创始人及主席。美国前总统老布什第3子，小布什弟弟，从事银行、石油、贸易等行业。在接受中国记者采访时，他对美国大选、中美关系和美国对中国的认知发表了自己的看法
yeah unfortunately the politics in America have become very black and white and divisive and he wins we lose and so there's a fear uh because of China's rise that we're going to be changed
somehow or altered somehow anyway we we live in crazy times in America I just one thing sharing with you is like we we just been to us in a couple days ago and you did yeah I I was
in New York and I looking around whether there's a Chinese car over there but unfortunately I didn't saw any Chinese EV um it's
going to be very hard for Chinese car
companies to establish a strong foothold
in the United States and especially if
Donald Trump is elected president he
insists that the Chinese cars tariffs on
Chinese cars even cars made in Mexico
not made in China but made in Mexico the
tariffs going to be 100% so he's he's
afraid of Chinese of competition with
the Chinese so yeah it's going to be
hard to imagine getting Chinese cars
into the American Market yeah and my
opinion by the way is that the tariffs
hurt American consumers I'm I'm 100%
confident that the Chinese make make the
best new energy Vehicles I've been on a
tour of the Cherry manufacturing plant
in woohoo and know the the the team
there very well and I read a lot of
articles about byd and others um and so
for the Americans not to realize the
benefit of high quality reasonably
priced you know longer range electric
vehicles or hybrid vehicles it's too bad
I it's it's it's it's a you know it's
unfortunate cuz you know we used to
Republicans used to believe in having
you know Open Access having free you
know open trade and so long as it's fair
trade and right now our Republican party
has been taken over by a by a tariff man
yeah and the Trump said that if he wins
he will put much more tar not only on EVS but also other good
everything do you think this will
trigger a second trade war with China of
course it damages the United States and
it damages China so I I don't know about
a trade War I'm not I'm not an economist
so I'm not sure I would use that term
trade War but it would make trade very
difficult and um and would punish
consumers here and manufact consumers in
the United States and manufacturers in
China you know what I what I'm finding
and it's kind of the only good news from
the election so far is that is that
there there are economists finally
speaking out and writing oped pieces in
the New York Times and in other
Publications about the tariffs and the
they point out properly that the tariffs
um aren't paid for by China they're paid
for by the American Consumer that with
Rising prices and they point out that that the
tariffs um are are not at all what Trump
claims in terms of of um you know
benefit to to the United States so the
debunking of his tariffs is becoming
more public now which which is
encouraging so we'll see we'll see if it
has makes an impact you know I'm I'm
definitely not a trump fan because I
think his economic policies are would
would be very harmful to to theit be
more harmful to the United States than
than Harris and Harris is a Democrat and
I was raised in a republican family but
you know I Trump I think it be worse for
the economy than Harris and hopefully
Harris will win like the economy
relation between China and US was the B
ballast of the C us relations and now
this relations seems be hurting and how
will this affect the China us relations
I mean it will continue to to have the
relationship bil relationship spiral my
father often said that the US China
relationship is the most consequential
the most important bilateral
relationship in the world and he was
right U my father recognized that China
has become the second largest economy in
the world lifting hundreds of millions
of people out of poverty in large
measure because of our bilateral trade
ties which is something as a freedom
loving American is is is a great thing
to take great pride in because more
people in China enjoy freedoms I was
here in 1975 during the cultural
revolution imagine the differences from
49 years ago when I first came to today
today when people enjoy economic
Prosperity when they achieve a certain
level of of wealth their the freedoms to
send kids to schools and to travel and
to pick you know businesses you want to
engage in and find work that's
satisfactory goes up so there there's
been a massive movement Freedom Movement
you that may be a sensitive word to be
using in in communist China but to me
it's a remarkable accomplishment that we
should take pride in you know on the
other hand America has become the
largest economy in the world with the
largest GDP with the largest per capita
GDP much larger than China's economy on
a per capita basis and it in large part
was happened because of globalization
and our major partner in globalization
was has been China so we've had a
win-win environment up until recently
China's rise has created real fear in
America about our national security our
way of life you know you if you hear
politicians talk you know it's like the
Communists are going to come up and take
over America and the word communist used
to mean you know you created for the
Cold War you communism used to be kind
of the what you would think of when you
think of malist kind of Communism the
communism that exists today is a very
different it has Market orientation it
has capitalist elements it has socialist
elements has you know the well-being of
people has really improv significantly
under this form of Communism but the
American politicians use the word in a
very derogatory negative way there's a
fear uh because of China's rise that
we're going to be changed somehow or
altered somehow you know it's kind of a
zero sum game if you win we lose well
that's that's not true if you win we win
if if we win you win you know everybody
wins there's a scenario out there where
we both can winh mhm U like a scholar
Thon just told me in another interview
he said that most American people don't
believe wi win because in a sports like
no one only one winner One winner how do
you see this kind of retoric I'm afraid
that that analysis is true today that
people perceive well Trump says it he
says you know they're winning we're
losing in talking about China yeah I
wish there were leaders in America my
father was a leader where he would
explain to the the people the truth
about relationships that you that you could
have you know one company one country
grow and Achieve prosperity and the
other one can grow and Achieve
Prosperity also that you can have
winning scenarios yeah unfor fortunately
the politics in America have become very
you know black and white and divisive
and you know he wins we lose and you
know there's been a lot of threatening
conversation Republicans say that kamla
Harris is a is a communist comrade
Kamala and that she's going to make our
economy go into a deep hole you know and
the Democrat or Republicans say that
Trump is a you know wannabe dictator and
you know he has no no perspective on
anything but his own ego and his own
self anyway we we live in crazy times in
America yeah you talk about freedom and
the globalization for many people here
in China now think actually us was the
leader of globalization and the idea was
shared by the collective West but now
China is a big supporter of
globalization and the US is in favor of
protectionism how do you see this chend
I was recently listened to a podcast
from an economist that explained that
because of the disenfranchised uh population in America
you know there's a Donald Trump is
exploiting a feeling in America among
many many people that they've been left
behind so they're the Hales and the have
knots and the have knots are being led
to believe that because of China's
taking our jobs because of globalization
their lot in life has been weakened
they're not getting the same so the
whole notion of
globalization um has become where it
become to mean something that's been
taken from you and there there are a lot
of people in America that that are not
doing as well and therefore are
vulnerable to a message that says it's
their fault we're going to stop it we're
not going to do trade with them or we're
going to raise tariffs get money from
them you know they're the rhetoric is
trying to play to that weakness um in
the American psyche right now that that
that many people suffer I do think there
is a problem with income disparity there
are some very poor people and there are
some people that are doing better
obviously and that's probably true in
China as well but China has a different
way of addressing it America is is you
know do you believe it's a domestic
problem or rather than blaming China it
definitely has the seeds of it are
domestic but China is an easy um Target
it's an easy uh scapegoat you know what
I mean it's it's so both parties are
piling on and beating up China you saw
the crazy China week 25 bills passed to
against China yeah yeah I do think it's
crazy I think there's a lot of F I know
many scholars who are experts on on
China China's development and us China
relations who believe that the false
narratives about China's intentions as
China Rises there's a fear that China CH
you know will want to take take
America's place in the as a global
Peacekeeper in the world or with global
influence or that China's going to
change our way of life or the communism
is going to slip into the American
political system somehow or culturally
we're going to change you know there
there's there's all these fears because
of false narratives and um unfortunately
you know with the freedom we have in
social media and Communications I can't
imagine how we can you know weed out
fake from real news I I'm not sure that
America has come close to solving the
problem yeah but you as you said America
is a free country why it's so difficult
to gather the truths about China in a
country with FL free flow of information
I that's my question I'm going to ask
you why do you think that I have no idea
I was I think that that because of our
freedoms people can say anything they
want whether it's true or not and if you
say it often enough it becomes truth
Donald Trump has said over and over and
over again that t that the Chinese are
paying for the tariffs the Chinese are
paying for the tariffs we know
economists know everyone who who's got a
who can think for themselves knows that
the American consumers are paying for
the tariffs not China China's is being
punished through tariffs in the
manufacturing is being hit because of
tariffs for sure there's a negative
impact on China but there's a a but the
payment for these tariffs is coming from
America but if you say something over
and over and over again it becomes
truth and there's no way to correct that
truth at least there's no you can't wave
a magic wand you can't make a law or
legislation you know that forces people
to believe that that's false and this is
true you know what I mean yeah people
believe in America many people believe
that the election was was a was a hoax
was a fraud and that there was that that
Trump won big he didn't win big it was
it become clearly established there were
court cases after court case that were
validated the election results in all
these states and yet Trump says it over
and over and over again and his people
believe it I don't I don't understand it
in a day and age where we have such
amazing Communications and transparency
where anybody can get information
easily um still these these false
narratives continue to be propagated and
there's and you can't clean it up I I
wish there was a way to wave that magic
wand people are very curious here in
China saying what is the Fair
competition here us people are always
talking about Fair competition my last
question yeah um Fair competition is an
interesting question because um I've
been doing work here in China for many
years I've also recently been spending a
lot of time in Saudi Arabia and I've
noticed that in countries that are
developing New Economic sectors that the
government plays an important role in
providing um early funding so in Saudi
Arabia they've got a sovereign fund
called piff PF the private investment
fund and they for example started a new
car set automobile Manufacturing sector
and piff put up all the money to start a
company called sear they put up the
biggest chunk maybe all the money uh for
another electric vehicle company that's
got um manufacturing base in the United
States but is building manufacturing so
they're building a whole sector bringing
in supply chain Etc putting all this
money in the idea is that at some point
the car business the car manufacturing
ecosystem will be so big that it will
grow naturally organically without
government Aid so government my my point
is that Sovereign funds whether they're
provincial funds from Anway Province
helping start a car sector or a you know
high-tech business of some kind U or or
whether it's a National Fund those funds
that are invested are perceived by
Americans and by others to be kind of in
the category of unfair trade because
because these car companies or these
other companies were given kind of you
know government subsidies or government
um investment Capital to to ensure that
they would be successful so my question
that I would ask people is it is it
really unfair or is it just smart I mean
I live in a state called Texas we have a
very beautiful state very free economy
we have the largest um you know
petroleum and natural gas resources we
also have the largest wind and Sun where
we we have we're bless like Saudi Arabia
with lots of energy I would think that
if our were governor of Texas I would
form a sovereign fund a state of Texas
fund and I would invest in things like
electric vehicle manufacturing or hybrid
vehicle manufacturing I'm not really a
big believer long-term in electric
vehicles I think especially in America I
think hybrid cars that can get very long
range make more sense but I would I
would seed a build it up and then let it take off on
its own because that's that should be
okay and that I wouldn't consider that
unfair trade I would consider it smart
trade um I do believe though you know
where there's direct subsidy on products
just to beat the price overseas of
course where there's that kind of direct
intervention yes you got to you got to
cut it off and um and not and consider
that unfair and there should be fairness
across the board so yes long crazy
answer yes
