基辛格所长Robert Daly 中美关系 挑战与机遇

基辛格所长Robert Daly 中美关系 挑战与机遇

中美关系：新政府和国会的挑战与机遇

伍德罗威尔逊中心

2024 年 11 月 22 日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jyymxFrO5Y

Robert Daly, Director of the Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute

威尔逊中心基辛格中美研究所所长罗伯特·戴利（Robert Daly）也加入了本期的威尔逊中心。

他重点介绍了他最近的中国之行，并讨论了北京如何通过深化与盟友和全球南方国家的关系、提振其国内科技行业以及为经济应对关税增加做好准备，为特朗普第二届政府做好准备。

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纽约北京人的男主角将罗伯特·戴利作为中国人的人性、人性、人性灵魂都人性化了。

但在政治的范围内，他仍然停留在西方的头脑中，没有清楚地看到民主正在把权力授予那些没有人脑、没有人性、没有人灵魂的鲁莽者，他们只能用非人性的方式来毁掉人民的生活。世界人民。

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你好，我是约翰·梅斯基，这里是威尔逊中心，现在是伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者中心的产物，今天的客人是老朋友罗伯特

戴利是威尔逊中心基辛格中美研究所所长，他定期与我们一起提供有关中华人民共和国的最新情况，在这种情况下，罗伯特，你刚刚进行了一次大流行后第一次回国旅行去中国呆了大约三个星期 我在那里呆了三个星期然后上周

我在科罗拉多州与一个中国高级代表团一起讨论了新政府领导下的关系，所以对你来说花时间在中国做一些事情是多么重要

你的工作很重要，呃，了解接近了解人们的真实想法，他们如何看待中国，他们如何看待美国，他们如何谈论呃，这确实是我对薪水的唯一要求，华盛顿有很多人看待中国通过望远镜呃，这就是我在新冠疫情期间所做的，然后对其中一些陈述的位置做出非常确定的陈述，呃，但他们往往会错过纹理的复杂性中国人自己认为的地方和方式，在过去的十年里，我们有一种倾向，将我们对中国的看法简化为共产党，并将我们对中国的看法简化为习近平本人，因此中国研究变成了习近平研究现在有可以理解的原因，公司是其中之一，但你也知道共产党日益绝对的权力和习近平在其中的地位，他是唯一的决定制造商呃，但如果你回想一下，当我们有更强大的总统时，任何外国分析人士如果只将美国视为那位总统，以及他们所说的话，你在这里我们都知道一切有多么重要，一切都很重要，那就大错特错了中国也是如此，所以你必须在那里，你知道吗？我知道你在几个周期前进行了这次预选，嗯，与她交谈，你如何比较这两者，美国的兴趣更高上次大选，他们对唐纳德·特朗普的看法是什么，他们第一次试探他的身材，你能告诉我们几件事吗？首先，呃，关于美国的负面叙述现在在中国比在中国根深蒂固得多。他们是，我指的不是简单的反美主义，而是来自中国宣传的下意识的反美主义，我指的是反美叙事，嗯，这些信念那些对美国有良好和谨慎思考的人认为，美国，呃，虽然仍然是世界上最强大的国家，但正在衰落，这是相当强烈的感觉，美国对中国所涉足的世界广大地区不感兴趣。对非洲、拉丁美洲、东南亚、中亚的活跃感兴趣，这非常强大，即使中国现在正处于经济危机之中，人们仍然相信中国正在崛起，而美国正在衰弱，这是根深蒂固的观点，而唐纳德·特朗普在 2016 年第一次竞选总统时，情况并非如此，正如你所指出的，我到中国进行了一次长途旅行，然后在那段时间进行中文讲座横跨民主党和共和党全国代表大会，只是简单地谈论这个制度，因此对希拉里·克林顿·唐纳德·特朗普呃竞争的兴趣当时很高，但并不是在这种对美国信仰的背景下下降，所以这是现在最大的区别之一，另一个是，他们觉得是的，他们知道唐纳德·特朗普，他们已经经历过这一切，他们不会感到惊讶，他们已经准备好了，呃，他们完全期望得到被火车撞到，或者脸上挨了一拳，或者任何正确的类比，你知道，在政府上任的第一天，你知道，关税更高，贸易战死灰复燃，他们还没有准备好迎接第一天时间呃他们现在已经准备好了他们仍然宁愿我这没有发生，他们不会喜欢它，但他们已经准备好了，呃，谢伊总统如何成长为世界领导人的角色，你知道，我是我，你提到了中国对他感兴趣的事实全球部分地区，或者至少是中国人的看法是，美国已经放弃或分散了对罗伯特·秘鲁上周的热烈欢迎。他抵达利马参加亚太经合组织峰会，中国领导人甚至获得了进行国事访问的荣幸；相比之下，乔·拜登在空军一号降落时受到了简单的问候，然后开始像对待美国总统一样对待美国总统。回水州甚至确保在公共场合看到这种羞辱，例如在领导人的合影中

参加峰会时，她站在前排秘鲁总统右边的荣誉位置，拜登被安排在后排的角落，美国，呃，美国人有时称之为他们的后院，正在受到不尊重，而另一方面，中国看起来很强势贸易和投资在该地区占据主导地位 这是《新闻周刊》杂志的评论 你知道这一切如何影响她成为主要人物的愿望世界领导人，所以这句话在细节上基本上是正确的，呃，中国尚未在该地区占据主导地位，但他们正在移动，趋势线应该让我们非常关注，这也是习近平获得如此多的关注的原因之一一个很好的反响是，秘鲁的陈港在利马以北开放了一个深水港，可以停泊军舰和集装箱船，并且正在开放那是一个中国建造的，并将是一个中国经营的港口，然后习近平将从秘鲁前往巴西，呃，他在那里建立了非常牢固的关系，主要基于贸易，但它比贸易更广泛，呃，这不仅仅是中国的故事活动，但也是美国忽视的呃中国可以给这些地区带来如此多的呃财富贸易呃投资贷款呃如果

美国继续与该地区打交道，与非洲打交道，就像中国现在明确表示，它应该成为全球南方的领导者，这有点奇怪，呃，你知道中国是世界第二大国，所以它是不清楚它是否以任何有意义的方式成为全球南方的一部分，但它有一个可以追溯到万隆会议的传统，即认为自己与欠发达地区或发展中国家保持一致，他们现在正在利用他们所声称的美国煽动乌克兰和加沙战争作为其中的一部分，他们正在取得进展，呃，这是不平衡的，它在中东正在加速，呃，中国发现它的进展嗯，共产党领导下的对技术高度感兴趣的发展型国家实际上与中东的神权政治非常匹配，中东也想要发展教育和技术，但在你知道的手下老牌政党他们才刚刚在中东起步，所以我们需要有我们必须拥有的全球视野，我认为第一届特朗普政府以及在某些方面拜登政府没有呃新阐述的令人信服的对美国人民可以支持的美国全球角色的描述，这在至少八年的时间里一直是一个挑战，可能更长，而且我认为，当我们进入新的特朗普政府时，当你看到出口时，它仍然是一个巨大的挑战刚刚完成的美国总统选举的民意调查呃移民经济排名第一和第二的经济可能特别是通货膨胀呃在国际舞台上的背景下当然加沙织机很大特别是在密歇根州和呃呃当你与中国人交谈时，乌克兰持续不断的冲突是什么？他们的雷达屏幕上有什么贸易战，你知道，当中国已经因国内原因而陷入某种程度的困境时，情况将会变得多么糟糕，嗯，对技术转让的技术限制，我们在拜登政府领导下实施的出口管制，以限制中国先进计算的发展呃，先进芯片是一个大领域，这些领域，呃，他们非常担心，他们正在准备防御措施，他们一直在呃解耦，像我们一样拿他们的经济冒险

他们一直在努力通过制裁证明他们的经济，他们在寻找新市场方面非常成功，这是回到拉丁美洲的一部分，这就是你知道美国和欧洲可能不会购买中国的电动汽车，但他们“它们相对便宜，部分原因是制造它们的公司不会从中获利，因此它们可以销往非洲、拉丁美洲和东南亚。”亚洲并主导这些市场，因此他们一直忙于为中国商品寻找替代供应来源和新市场，为新的贸易战做准备，这场贸易战主要以技术为中心，他们对全球订单更有信心他们知道美国不会再在中国活跃的非洲或拉丁美洲地区真正活跃，他们知道他们正在中东取得进展，他们正在寻找机会挑拨美国及其合作伙伴之间的关系，因为他们知道，欧洲和东北亚的美国合作伙伴对这次选举的结果感到有些震惊，他们认为这些国家也担心美国的合作伙伴和盟友对韩国和韩国的关税感到担忧。日本要求他们为美国在其国家的军事基地支付更多费用，因此中国正在寻找他们对全球秩序非常有信心的人连贯的叙述 对他们想在世界上扮演的角色的感觉 他们不能总是做到这一点 这里也存在非自我认识和不连贯的领域 呃，我认为他们低估了美国的一些剩余优势，但他们他说：“我们不确定特朗普政府是否会重视这些优势，因此预计他们会在习近平在达沃斯发表演讲时在全球秩序方面采取更积极的行动。”一月份就职日之前，正如他在 2017 年所做的那样，将中国描述为当前秩序的维护者和稳定的提供者。我想回到有关全球秩序和中国角色的问题，但我首先想谈谈你谈到呃技术和贸易战呃潜在的贸易战中国是否在诸如人工智能等领域看到了机会，这些领域存在激烈的竞争，或者呃呃气候相关如果唐纳德·特朗普的第二届政府与他的第一届政府一样，那么中国很快就可以宣称自己是气候技术的领导者，呃，尽管中国仍然是世界上最大的温室气体排放国，这是事实，并将在很长一段时间内继续如此时间，但你也知道他们安装了呃风和太阳能产能专业向世界提供太阳能电池板，实际上市场目前正在下降，但它可能会回来锂电池电子汽车呃中国已经领先世界，并且正在将其作为其外交的一部分，特别是在哪些领域我们现在把全球南方称为发展中国家，它不仅在经济上为中国服务，而且在外交上为中国服务，作为全球公共产品的提供者，呃，所以即使我说他们仍然是世界上最大的污染者，呃，他们仍在燃烧大量煤炭并建造燃煤发电厂，他们是最大的未装核容量，所以他们在这里有一系列很好的谈话要点，他们也不再是否认气候变化的国家在早期曾有过不少这样的情况，但中国政府现在全力以赴，并将利用这一点作为其公共外交的一部分，对那些已经气候变化的国家进行公共外交。感受到全球变暖的毁灭性影响，它将在全球秩序方面与美国形成鲜明对比，我们在过去 24 小时内看到，乌克兰的局势可能会危险升级，随后俄罗斯会发起猛烈攻击拜登总统决定取消对从乌克兰向俄罗斯发射远程导弹的某些限制，现在普京签署了一项新的核学说俄罗斯用核武器做出反应的能力的门槛 中国在这方面处于什么位置 她将介入其中 她将保持一定距离 中国会做什么 中国将努力继续左右逢源中立并声称自己是和平的提供者，而事实上，正如拜登政府所说，它是俄罗斯的重要推动者，呃，通过购买俄罗斯碳氢化合物并通过其出口无人机和备件，呃，你知道中国的加工商，所以中国不是中立的，但它能够在全球范围内再次很好地发挥中立方和潜在和平缔造者的作用 南欧不买这个东北亚 北美不买账相信这一点，但世界其他大部分国家都知道，中国是ALS，也明白核武器是美国与中国关系和大国竞争中日益重要的一部分。做了很多事情，我在中国的时候听到了很多关于中国的不首先使用政策，而美国没有不首先使用政策，这是有充分理由的，但那是出于一些原因。对于大多数人来说，首先说“不”是显而易见的

China-US Relations: Challenges and Opportunities for the New Administration and Congress

WoodrowWilsonCenter 2024年11月22日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jyymxFrO5Y

Robert Daly, Director

Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/contact-us

https://www.facebook.com/woodrowwilsoncenter

One Woodrow Wilson Plaza

1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW

Washington, DC 20004-3027

Phone: [phone]

Email: [e-mail]

China-US Relations: Challenges and Opportunities for the New Administration and Congress

WoodrowWilsonCenter 2024年11月22日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jyymxFrO5Y

In this edition of Wilson Center NOW, we are joined by Robert Daly, Director of the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. He highlights his recent trip to China and discusses how Beijing is preparing for the second Trump administration by deepening ties with allies and Global South nations, boosting its internal tech sector, and bracing the economy for increased tariffs.

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A time of  Starring Actor of Beijingers in New York humanized Robert Daly as Chinese in human quality, human nature and human soul.

But in the scope of politics, he is still in the mind of the west without see clear that democracy is granting power to the recklee ones whom no human brain no human nature and no human soul that can only inhuman play to ruin the life of world people.

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hello I'm John meski and this is Wilson Center now a production of the woodro Wilson International Center for Scholars my guest today is an old friend Robert

Daly director of the Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute on China and the United States and as he does joins us regularly to provide an update on the People's Republic of China and in this case Robert you just uh made a trip your first post-pandemic trip back to China spent what about three weeks there I was there for three weeks and then last week

I was with a Chinese high level delegation in Colorado talking about the relationship under the new Administration so how important is it for you to spend time in China to do

your work it's it's essential uh knowing getting close to knowing how people are really thinking how they see China how they see America how they're talking about uh is really my sole claim to a paycheck there are plenty of people in Washington who look at China through a telescope uh which is what I was doing during covid and then make very certain declarations about the place some of those declarations are correct uh but they tend to miss the texture the complexity of the place and the ways that the Chinese themselves are thinking we've had a tendency over the past decade to reduce our view of China to the Communist party and to reduce our view of the Communist party to Xi Jinping himself and so China studies becomes Xi Jinping studies now there are understandable reasons for that Co is one of them but also you know the increasingly absolute power of the Communist party and XI jinping's status within it he's the sole decision maker uh but if you think back to when we've had stronger presidents any foreign analyst would have been more than wrong to have seen America only as that President and what they said and did you here we know how much everything matters the everything matters in China as well and so you've got to be there what was you know I know that you you did this pre-election a couple Cycles ago uh speaking to her how can you compare the two was the interest higher in the US election what was the opinion about Donald Trump last time around they were trying him on for size for the first time right what can you tell us well a couple things first uh the negative narratives about the United states are much more deeply ensconced in China now than they were and I don't mean simple anti-americanism there is knee-jerk anti-americanism that comes from Chinese propaganda I mean anti-American narratives uh beliefs that are held by people who who think well and carefully about the United States the sense that the United States uh while still the world's most powerful nation is declining is fairly strong the sense that the United States is not interested in vast areas of the world that China is interested in an active in Africa Latin America southeast Asia central Asia that's very strong uh and even with uh the economic crisis that China is now in the midst of there's still a belief that China is rising as America weakens that is those are very deeply held views and that wasn't true the first time Donald Trump ran for president in 2016 as you noted I did it a long trip to China then was giving Chinese language lectures During the period spanning both the Democratic and the Republican national conventions simply talking about the system so interest in the Hillary Clinton Donald Trump uh competition was high then but not against this background of a belief in American decline so that's one of the big differences now the other is that they feel yes that they that they know Donald Trump they've been through this they will not be surprised they've been getting ready gaming it out uh they fully expect to get hit by a train or punched in the face or whatever the right analogy is you know on the first day of the administration you know with higher tariffs and a resuscitation of the trade war that they were not ready for the first time uh they're ready now they would still rather it didn't happen they're not going to like it but they're ready uh how has president shei grown in the role of a a a world leader you know I'm I'm you you mentioned the fact that China is interested in in parts of the globe or at least the Chinese perception is that they are that the US has forsaken or or been distracted from I'm reading from Newsweek here Robert Peru gave xiangping a warm welcome last week when he arrived for the asia-pacific economic cooperation Summit in Lima the Chinese leader was even accorded the honor of a state visit Joe Biden in contrast got a barebones greeting as Air Force One landed PR then proceeded to treat the American president as if he were a Backwater State even making sure the humili was seen in public for instance in the group photo of leaders

attending the summit she was standing in the place of honor to the right of the Peruvian president in the front row Biden was placed in the back in the corner America in uh what Americans sometimes call their backyard is being disrespected China on the other hand looks ascendant trading and investing its way into dominance of the region this is a commentary from Newsweek magazine how you know how does this all factor into she's desire to to be the major world leader so that that quote is largely true in its details uh it is China is not yet dominant in the region but they're moving and the trend line should be very concerning to us one of the reasons that Xi Jinping got so much such such a good reception was that the Peruvian Port of Chan opening up uh north of Lima a deep water Port uh which could host military vessels as well as container ships is opening up and that that was a Chinese built and will be a Chinese operated Port Xi Jinping is then going from Peru to Brazil uh and he's building up a very strong relationship there mostly based on trade but it's broader than trade uh this is a story not only of Chinese activity but also of American neglect uh China can bring so much uh wealth trade uh investment lending to these areas uh that it is going to be May well be ascendant if the

United States continues to deal with the region to deal with Africa as it has China has now explicitly said that it should be the leader of the global South now this is a little peculiar uh you know China is the world's second largest Nation so it's it's not clear that it is a part of the global South in any meaningful way but it has a tradition going back to the Bandung Conference of of seeing itself as aligned with the less veled or the developing world and they're now playing on that they are using what they claim is America's instigation of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as part of that and they are making

progress uh it is uneven it is speeding up in the Middle East uh China is finding that its uh developmental State highly interested in technology under the leadership of the Communist party is actually a very good match for the theocracies of the Middle East which also want development education and Tech but under the hand of you know established parties they're only getting started in the Middle East and so we need to have a global view we have to have and I would argue that the first Trump administrations and in some ways the Biden Administration did not have uh a newly articulated convincing description of America's Global role that the American people could support that has been a challenge for at least eight years probably longer and it remains a big challenge I think as we go

into the new Trump Administration when when you look at the exit polls from the the just completed US presidential election uh immigration the economy number one and number two by a significant margin in the economy maybe specifically inflation uh in the background of that on the international scene of course Gaza Loom large particularly in Michigan and uh uh the ongoing conflict in Ukraine when you were speaking to people in China what are what what on their radar screen what would be their exit pole issues that are dominating the conversation in China it is I think the trade War you know how much worse is it going to get at a time when China is already somewhat hobbled for domestic reasons uh techn restrictions on technology transfer the export controls that we have put in place under the Biden Administration to limit China's development of advanced Computing uh and advanced chips is a big one and those are areas in which uh they are quite fearful they are preparing defenses they have been uh decoupling and drisking their economy as we have

been they have been trying to sanctions proof their economy they have been very successful in finding new markets and this is part of coming back to Latin America part of what that is about you know the United States and Europe might not buy China's electronic vehicles but they're relatively cheap in part because the companies that make them don't profit from them uh and therefore they can sell to Africa to Latin America to

southeast Asia and dominate those markets so they've been busy looking for alternate sources of supply and new markets for Chinese Goods uh in preparation for for a new trade War which is largely centered around technology they're more confident on the global order piece uh they know that the United States will once again not really be active in Africa or Latin America places where China is active they know that they are making gains uh within the Middle East and they are looking for opportunities to drive wedges between the United States and its partners because they understand that that Europe and partner American Partners in Northeast Asia are somewhat alarmed by the results of uh this election that they that these countries too American partners and allies worry about tariffs worry in South Korea and Japan about uh demands that they pay more for American uh soldiers military bases that that are in their countries so China's looking for that they're quite confident on on the global order front they have a coherent narrative a sense of the role they'd like to play in the world they can't always do it there are areas of non-self knowledge and incoherence here as well uh and I think they underestimate some of America's remaining strengths but they're not sure that these are strengths that the Trump Administration will value and so expect them to move even more aggressively on the global order front watch Xi Jinping will give a speech at Davos in January right before inauguration day as he did in 2017 presenting China as the upholder of the current order and the provider of stability I I want to Circle back to questions about the global order and and China's role but I first I want to touch on what you said about uh technology and the trade War uh potential trade Wars does China see opportunities in areas like whether be AI where there's been Fierce competition or uh uh climate related technological advances where China could claim to be the the climate Tech leader very shortly if Donald Trump his second Administration is anything like his first Administration as it relates to climate well it it already claims to be the leader of the global green economy with with considerable justification uh even though China Remains the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases that is true and will continue to be true for a long time but they're also you know for installed uh wind and solar capacity Pro for provision of solar panels to the world that's actually that market is is falling off for now but it may be back lithium batteries electronic vehicles uh China is already leading the world and it is making that a part of its diplomacy especially in what we now call the global South in in the developing world that's become it works for China not only economically but it works for them diplomatically as a provider of global public goods uh and so even though as I say they Remain the world's biggest polluter uh and they're still burning a lot of coal and building coal power plants they're the number one uninstalled nuclear capacity so they have a pretty good series of talking points here and they are also no longer climate change deniers there had been quite a bit of that in China uh in the early days but the Chinese government is now all in and it will use that as part of its public diplomacy in countries that are already feeling devastating impacts of global warming and it will be contrasting itself with the United States in on the global order front uh we've seen in the last 24 hours what could be a dangerous escalation in Ukraine with uh the a fierce attack from Russia followed up by President Biden deciding that he will lift certain restrictions on the use of long range missiles fired from from Ukraine toward Russia and now Putin has signed a new nuclear Doctrine lowering the bar for Russia's ability to respond with nuclear weapons where is China on this is she going to insert himself into this is he going to keep this at arms length what will China do China will try to continue to have it both ways to claim to be

neutral and to claim to be a provider of Peace while in fact it is as the Biden

Administration has said an essential enabler of Russia uh through its purchases of

Russian hydrocarbons and through its exports of drones and spare parts and uh

you know processors to China so China is not neutral but it is able to play part

of a neutral party and potential Peacemaker fairly well again in the global South Europe doesn't buy this northeast Asia North America doesn't buy it but much of the rest of the world does China is ALS also understands that uh nuclear weapons are a growing part of us China relations and of great power competition it makes a great deal and I heard a lot about this when I was in China uh just recently about China's no first use policy and the United States does not have a no first use policy uh for good reasons but that re

for reasons that aren't immediately obvious to most people saying no first

use policy seems like it would be sort

of the default moral position America

because of its extended deterrence and

other policies feels that it can't have

a no first use policy and so China as

the danger of you know nuclear weapons

use especially in Ukraine goes up is

using that as one of its major talking

points in public diplomacy around the

world so uh any involvement on the

Middle East as far as the conflict will

will she attempt to be a peacemaker or

will he again try to have it both ways

as you put it CH China is having it both

ways when China within China tells the

story of what's happening in the Middle

East they tend to begin either with

pictures of uh victims of the war in

Gaza civilians or with footage of

American uh aircraft carriers steaming

toward uh the Eastern Mediterranean and

their claim is that as in Ukraine uh

this war comes about as a result of

American hegemony and so they they are

hitting uh very us very hard with that

uh and using the tying that to their

lending through belon road to get

support for their position and votes in

the United Nations for example but they

don't get close enough they don't pay

any cost or take any risks such that if

and when there are peace talks they will

want to sweep in and play a major role

in that and if and when there is a

rebuild of Ukraine or Gaza they're going

to be very interested to bring their you

know World beating capacity in concrete

in steel and aluminum to these projects

and to wear the hero hat there but they

were remain you know they retain that

distance and they're not a player in the

week to week month-to-month

diplomacy in the Middle East in part

because that's very very risky and they

don't want to take those risks yeah

lining up a lot of style points that

they may be able to cash in later that's

what it say and and and that can work

yeah you know they are building up while

working in some ways within the existing

order and talking a lot about the

importance of the United Nations as the

center of a world order the United

Nations not the United States they are

also trying to set up alternate orders

alternate mechanisms that will give

options to countries which like China

Russia Iran and a growing number of

countries throughout the world don't

want their choices shaped as they see it

by the United States and its allies so

but they're they're doing that in a way

that is is sort of non-committal all

things to all people and talking a big

game on piece so uh a final area I want

to ask you about Robert for this

discussion of course we'll have others

because as you've reminded us this is

not a short-term story right this is

going to go on for

decades or it no Beginnings or endings

it's a Continuum right but this is where

we are today and that area is a

potential hot spot of Taiwan and uh

breaking news in the last 24 hours about

Pro democracy 45 Pro democracy Le

sentenced to as much as 10 years for

their participation in an non-official

primary some months ago uh in Hong Kong

in Hong Kong right where where does the

where do we stand on on Taiwan uh and

China and the US so the you know

regarding the these new convictions in

Hong Kong these will only you know

strengthen uh Taiwanese opposition to

the offer that Beijing makes which is

one country two systems that's the

country it makes to Taiwan that is the

offer it made to Hong Kong uh that now

has no purchase in Taiwan even among uh

the more moderate K dong party there is

some anxiety in Taiwan uh as we head

into the new Administration on a couple

of fronts one is that President Trump

has said that China the Taiwanese

company tsmc Taiwan semiconductor which

is the world's leading practically only

maker of Leading Edge chips president

Trump has said that uh tsmc stole that

industry from the United States um which

is isn't true but which they see as a

Potential Threat there is also concern

that while there are many Fierce

Defenders of uh Taiwan uh and its its

ongoing deao Independence in the

Republican party and even in the new

Trump Administration the president himself

isn't necessarily among them and this

was true in the first Trump Administration as well that he the

president was often put the brakes on

some more hawkish members of his administration that wanted to go further

in drawing closer to Taiwan and creating distance from from uh Beijing Trump

would say no you know the game is actually China you know in dollar terms certainly

in ow terms not Taiwan now that attitude of President Trump's has both encouraging and and somewhat worrisome Trends depending on how things break

down I he's he's not going to agitate on

Taiwan uh but Taiwan is also not sure

that he won't make a deal that includes

some diminishment of American support

for them and so this remains a big question mark um and this is a question

about the administration generally when

you have sort of a Maga somewhat

isolationist America First impulse from

the president but you have a Republican

party and many strong supporters within

that party of the president who remain

American Prim assists who want America

to be the most important country in

maintaining a global order that is an

evolution of the one we set up on after

World War II how do those two different

instincts play out and and Robert where

do you place uh president-elect Trump's

nominee for Secretary of State Marco

Rubio in that equation he's been a very

vocal China critic yes but he's also an

American Primacy and I think and a

believer in a strong American global

role there's no contradiction between

being a strong you know critic of China

and being a Primacy the question is will

there be a contradiction between being a

Primacy which means cherishing and

building alliances providing Global public goods exercising Global Leadership sometimes at a cost to America is there going to be any friction between that branch of American foreign policy and the Republican party and what the president wants to do and we don't know the answer to that yet well uh as the answers emerge we'll talk about it again Rob Bert as always thank you thank you we hope you enjoyed this edition of Wilson Center now and that

you'll join us again soon until then for all of us at the center I'm John meski thank you for your time and your interest.