Inside Xi's war on the West | Melissa Chen | Battle of Ideas 2024
Academy of Ideas 2024年12月22日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLhgISFU4Ts
摘自思想之战节 2024 辩论：10 月 7 日，一年后：世界（混乱）新秩序？详情：https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/sess...
完整节目：https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/prog...
发言人：Melissa Chen
社交媒体 X：https://x.com/acadofideas Instagram：/ acadofideas
TikTok：https://www.tiktok.com/@acadofideas?i...
10月7日，一年后：世界（混乱）新秩序？
https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/session/october-7-one-year-on-new-world-disorder/
10 月 20 日星期日，11:00—12:30，教堂大厦哈维·古德温套房地缘政治危机
2023 年 10 月 7 日，哈马斯战士对以色列的野蛮恐怖主义似乎再次颠覆了地缘政治。就在分析人士开始理解俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰所开创的“新秩序”时，以色列的袭击以及以色列随后在加沙为摧毁哈马斯而发动的战争似乎开启了地缘政治历史的新篇章。也许最值得注意的是，这场战争引起了许多前西方盟友对以色列的广泛谴责。这取决于你问谁，这要么向所有人展示了哈马斯的伊斯兰野蛮行径，要么以色列完全放弃了战争规则。不管怎样，一种新的动态立刻出现了。
在过去的一年里，战争的进行似乎一再加剧中东的紧张局势。许多人说，随着以色列和伊朗两国互相攻击，两国正处于战争边缘。以色列还面临着与真主党的冲突，尽管许多人质疑以色列在摧毁加沙哈马斯的尝试中取得了多大成功。这场战争也给整个中东带来了经济问题。
这场战争也产生了全球性的影响：它似乎使以色列与许多西方盟友的关系变得紧张，因为许多国家都站出来谴责加沙所谓的“种族灭绝”。在整个西方，这场战争还伴随着反犹太主义的激增。
但也许加沙战争更广泛的后果是文化战争的全球化。在过去的一年里，西方社会已经看到了一个相对规模较小但非常直言不讳的反以色列/亲巴勒斯坦联盟的出现。最引人注目的不是对加沙受苦受难者的同情，而是这种联盟将以前分散的群体团结在一起的感觉——从铁杆伊斯兰主义者到 LGBTQ 活动家。有时，加沙战争似乎与加沙无关，而与先前存在的文化冲突有关，例如身份政治或西方历史之争。
笼罩在这些冲突之上的还有中国问题。许多美国军事规划者坚持认为与中国的重大冲突是不可避免的，而西方一些人则试图描绘出一场以中国、俄罗斯和伊朗为首的对美国权力的新的“全球抵抗”。然而，除了偶尔涉足文化战争或谨慎支持普京之外，中国一直试图将自己定位为置身事外。
2024 年的全球力量平衡将走向何方？乌克兰和加沙的战争暴露了全球秩序的哪些方面？在美国衰落和中国崛起的背景下，我们是否正在目睹世界的重新排序？也许这种动态更像是全球分裂成不同的区域中心——或者完全是别的什么？我们正处于新冷战的边缘，还是文化战争正在全球化？
发言人
Nick Busvine OBE
顾问；Herminius Holdings Ltd 创始合伙人；Briefings for Britain 顾问委员会成员；前外交官，外交和联邦事务部
Melissa Chen
Strategy Risks 董事总经理；Ideas Beyond Borders 联合创始人；Spectator World 特约编辑
Bill Durodié 教授
巴斯大学政治、语言和国际研究系国际关系系主任
Ashley Rindsberg
调查记者；作者，《灰色女士眨眼：纽约时报的误报、歪曲和捏造如何彻底改变历史》
Ralph Schoellhammer 博士
评论员和播客；维也纳韦伯斯特大学国际关系学助理教授
发言人：Melissa Chen
所以这里只是举手表决，你们中有多少人认为你们会在未来 10 年内经历一场全球冲突，这种形式你们可以称之为第二次世界大战，对不起，你们中有多少人认为在未来 10 年内会经历一场全球冲突或第三次世界大战，好吧，那你们这一生呢？有人跑了两次，嗯，有多少人已经认为它正在顺利进行中，或者我们离它很近了，有趣的是，一切都一样，因此，早在 10 月 7 日之前，世界秩序的重塑就已经在顺利进行中了，我不知道你们是否注意到，但如果你是美国 NBA 的篮球教练，你就不能发推文支持香港，我不知道你们是否知道，你们国家的伦敦大学学院的教授会d 发现自己正在接受调查，并在讨论中国现代奴隶制问题后被取消了教学课程，你有没有注意到，如果你是一位著名的电影导演，像马丁·斯科西这样的人会说你不能拍一部关于西藏喇嘛的电影，而迪士尼的首席执行官必须前往中国，去格拉尔，向中国的牧师道歉，你有没有注意到大卫·拉米无法在伦敦接待台湾前总理，因为他不想在访问前激怒中国，那么中国如何能够将其镇压和胁迫的触角延伸到其主权边界之外，并影响所有这些人，我刚才列出的所有这些人，都是我们英国和美国国民，嗯，在海外，他们在自己的国家实际上可以说什么和做什么，这只是一个文化层，这只是一个软件层，如果我们去再往下一层到硬件，嗯，你有没有注意到，中国现在是世界上最大的造船国，其产能是美国的 230 多倍，就舰船数量而言，中国拥有最大的海军，但吨位不是，你有没有注意到，自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和 10 月 7 日以来，中国几乎已经占领了整个非洲，中国支持普京，拒绝谴责哈马斯，反而谴责以色列，这清楚地表明，以色列已经把自己的命运交给了一个特定的俱乐部，嗯，这是一个独特的集团，它已经出现，包括中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜，《经济学人》称之为混乱四方，《外交事务》杂志称之为动荡的 AIS，但他们在颠覆什么，嗯，他们在颠覆旧世界秩序，不管你想叫它什么，这个国家集团已经建立了更紧密的联系，他们互相提供武器，共享他们利用他们的封闭社会开展影响力活动，入侵我们的开放社会。经过数十年不受约束的全球化，美国遏制了地缘政治对手的崛起。他们认为，中国经济的经济自由化将带来政治自由，这种想法是错误的。现在，随着对进口产品征收关税和贸易战升级，美国和中国以前所未有的速度脱钩。我们的错误是，假设市场是实现自由最大化的载体。相反，这是中国利用的一种机制，将其模式和文化输出到我们的海岸。相反，中国利用市场准入按照自己的形象重塑世界。在我的工作中，我们看到企业通过各种方式降低来自中国的风险，从供应链投入到重新平衡投资组合，远离对中国市场风险较高的公司。与此同时，对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的制裁未能产生任何影响。禁止该国国际金融体系 Swift 系统似乎只是促使俄罗斯推出了数字货币和替代性交叉支付系统，我不知道你是否听说过这个术语，它代表巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非，这是一群新兴市场，几十年前投资者正在庆祝，现在它是砖头，你知道，它基本上已经扩展，就像 lgbts 一样，将其扩展到 lgbtq 以及以同样快的速度，这个集团的形成非常清楚地表明，这些国家实际上拒绝了西方的二战后秩序，并希望建立自己的内部信任圈，因为世界重组为两极世界，世界变得越来越不稳定，这场冷战与 20 世纪活跃的旧冷战的区别在于，这场冷战不仅仅是国家之间的战争，也是国家内部的战争文化差异被武器化，以至于外交政策和地缘政治被看作是文化战争的视角，否则你怎么解释巴勒斯坦这些集团不仅仅是受地缘政治和经济驱动，而且现在它们也越来越多地受到社会和道德力量的影响，所以上一次冷战中明确的选择在西方已经不复存在，它越来越多地被视为一场文化战争，就像上一次冷战一样，新的冷战将席卷世界几乎每一个角落，世界新文化战争将要求国家和国家内的部落站队，它建立在以不同的系统和军事联盟为导向的地缘政治集团之上，历史远未结束，即将再次重启，太好了。
Inside Xi's war on the West | Melissa Chen | Battle of Ideas 2024
Academy of Ideas 2024年12月22日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLhgISFU4Ts
From the Battle of Ideas Festival 2024 DEBATE: October 7, one year on: new world (dis)order? Details: https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/sess...
Full programme: https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/prog... Speaker: Melissa Chen SOCIAL MEDIA X: https://x.com/acadofideas Instagram:
/ acadofideas TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@acadofideas?i...
OCTOBER 7, ONE YEAR ON: NEW WORLD (DIS)ORDER?
https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/session/october-7-one-year-on-new-world-disorder/
SUNDAY 20 OCTOBER, 11:00—12:30, HARVEY GOODWIN SUITE, CHURCH HOUSEGEOPOLITICS IN CRISIS
In the past year, the prosecution of the war has seemed to repeatedly escalate tensions in the Middle East. Many talk of Israel and Iran as being on the verge of war as the two countries trade attacks. Israel also faces a conflict with Hezbollah, even as many question how well it has succeeded in its attempt to destroy Hamas in Gaza. It has thrown up economic issues across the Middle East, too.
The war has also had global consequences: it seems to have strained Israel’s relationships with many Western allies as so many line up to denounce a so-called ‘genocide’ in Gaza. Across the West, the war has also been accompanied by a surge in anti-Semitism.
But perhaps the broader consequence of the war in Gaza has been the globalisation of the culture war. Over the past year, Western societies have seen the emergence of a relatively small but very vocal anti-Israel / pro-Palestine coalition. What is most notable about this is less the sympathy for those suffering in Gaza, but the sense that this coalition unites previously disparate groups – from hardcore Islamists to LGBTQ activists. At times, it seems that the war in Gaza is less about Gaza and more about pre-existing cultural conflicts like identity politics or the battle over Western history.
Looming over these conflicts is also the question of China. Many American military planners insist that a major conflict with China is inevitable while some in the West try to paint a new ‘global resistance’ to American power, spearheaded by China, Russia and Iran. Yet, aside from the odd foray into the culture war or guarded support for Putin, China has tried to position itself as above the fray.
Where does this leave the global balance of power in 2024? What have wars in Ukraine and in Gaza exposed about the global order? Are we witnessing a re-ordering of the world amid American decline and Chinese ascendence? Perhaps the dynamic is more one of a fracturing of the globe into different regional centre – or something else entirely? Are we on the verge of a new cold war, or is the culture war becoming globalised?
SPEAKERS
Nick Busvine OBEconsultant; founding partner, Herminius Holdings Ltd; advisory board member, Briefings for Britain; former diplomat, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Melissa Chenmanaging director, Strategy Risks; co-founder, Ideas Beyond Borders; contributing editor, Spectator World
Professor Bill Durodiéchair of International Relations, department of politics, languages and international studies, University of Bath
Ashley Rindsberginvestigative journalist; author, The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times' misreporting, distortions and fabrications radically alter history
Dr Ralph Schoellhammercommentator and podcaster; assistant professor of International Relations, Webster University Vienna
Speaker: Melissa Chen
so just just a show of hands here how how many of you actually think that you will experience a global conflict in
this in the form you can call it World
War II if you like um in the next 10
years sorry how many of you think um
will experience a global conflict or
World War III in the next 10
years okay how about um in your lifetime
and someone raced it twice um and uh how
many already think it's well underway or
we're close to it interestingly all the
same hence um so long before October 7th
um the remaking of the world order was
already well well underway um I don't
know if you noticed but if you were a
basketball coach in the NBA in the
United States you couldn't tweet in
support of Hong Kong um I don't know if
you know not that a professor at UCL
here in your country would find herself
under investigation and cancel uh from
teaching a course after running a
discussion about modern slavery in
China did you notice that if you were a
famous movie director someone like
Martin scorsi say that you couldn't make
a film about the D Lama in Tibet and
that the CEO of Disney would have to
which is an American company would have
to travel to China to Graal and
apologize guys to the prier of China did
you notice that David Lamy was unable to
host the former PM of Taiwan here in
London because he didn't want to anger
China before his trip so how is it that China can extend
its tendrils of repression and coercion
so far beyond its Sovereign borders and
affect what all of these people and all
of these people that I just listed were
our British and American Nationals
um here overseas uh what what they can actually
say and do in their very own country and
this is just a cultural layer this is
just a software layer if we go down one
more layer to the hardware um did you
notice that China is now the world's
largest ship Builder with a capacity
that's two more than 230 times greater
than the United States that it has the
biggest Navy in terms of the number of
vessels but not tonnage did you notice that China's
pretty much all Africa right
now since the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and October 7th China's support
of Putin and refusal to condemn Hamas
but rebuke Israel instead makes it clear
that has thrown its lot in with a
certain Club um it's a distinct block
that has emerged and that is comprising
China Russia Iran and North
Korea The Economist calls it the quartet
of chaos the Foreign Affairs magazine
calls it the AIS of upheaval but what
are they upheaving um they're upheaving
the old world order whatever you want to call it this
group of Nations has forged closer ties
they Supply weapons to each other and
shared knowhow um and they run influence
campaigns using their closed societies
to hack our open societies after Decades of unfettered
globalization where the US eded the rise
of a geopolitical adversary thinking
erroneous that economic liberalization
of the Chinese economy would lead to
political freedoms we now see the US and
China decoupling at a unprecedented rate
as tariffs are imposed on Imports and
the trade War escalates our mistake was
assuming that markets were a vector for
maximizing Liberty instead it was a
mechanism China exploited to export
their model and culture to our Shores
instead China used Market access to
reshape the world in its own image in my
line of work we are seeing firms de risk
from China reducing their exposure in
various ways from supply chain inputs to
rebalancing their investment portfolios
away from companies that have high
exposure to the Chinese market meanwhile
sanctions on Russia over invasion of
Ukraine have failed to make a dent
Banning the country from the
International Financial system the Swift
system seems only to have spurred Russia
to launch a goal back digital currency
and an alternative crossb payment
system bricks I'm I don't know if you've
heard of this term um it stands for
Brazil Russia India China and South
Africa um and this is a the group of
Emerging Markets which investors a
decade decades ago were was celebrating
um now it's bricks Eau you know with
it's B it's basically expanded like
lgbts expand it to lgbtq plus as fast as
that um and and the formation of this
block makes it very clear that these
nations actually reject the Western Le
post World War II order and want to
build their own Inner Circle of trust as
the world reorganizes into a bipolar
world the world is becoming more and
more unstable the difference between
this cold war and the old one which
animated the 20th century is that this
one is not just between countries it is
within countries our cultural
differences are weaponized such that
foreign policy and geopolitics are
viewed through the lens of uh culture
wars here at home how else do you
explain qu or Palestine these blocks are
not just driven by geopolitics and
economics but now they're being shaped
increasingly by social and moral forces
as well so the clarity of choice in the
previous cold war is is gone here in the
west it is increasingly being cast as a
culture war and just like the last Cold
War the new one will engulf almost every
corner of the world World new culture
war will demand that Nations and tribes
within nations take sides and it rides
on top of geopolitical blocks oriented
around different systems and military
alliances history far from ending is
about to restart once again well great.
so just just a show of hands here how how many of you actually think that you will experience a global conflict in
this in the form you can call it World
War II if you like um in the next 10
years sorry how many of you think um
will experience a global conflict or
World War III in the next 10
years okay how about um in your lifetime
and someone raced it twice um and uh how
many already think it's well underway or
we're close to it interestingly all the
same hence um so long before October 7th
um the remaking of the world order was
already well well underway um I don't
know if you noticed but if you were a
basketball coach in the NBA in the
United States you couldn't tweet in
support of Hong Kong um I don't know if
you know not that a professor at UCL
here in your country would find herself
under investigation and cancel uh from
teaching a course after running a
discussion about modern slavery in
China did you notice that if you were a
famous movie director someone like
Martin scorsi say that you couldn't make
a film about the D Lama in Tibet and
that the CEO of Disney would have to
which is an American company would have
to travel to China to Graal and
apologize guys to the prier of China did
you notice that David Lamy was unable to
host the former PM of Taiwan here in
London because he didn't want to anger
China before his trip so how is it that China can extend
its tendrils of repression and coercion
so far beyond its Sovereign borders and
affect what all of these people and all
of these people that I just listed were
our British and American Nationals
um here overseas uh what what they can actually
say and do in their very own country and
this is just a cultural layer this is
just a software layer if we go down one
more layer to the hardware um did you
notice that China is now the world's
largest ship Builder with a capacity
that's two more than 230 times greater
than the United States that it has the
biggest Navy in terms of the number of
vessels but not tonnage did you notice that China's
pretty much all Africa right
now since the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and October 7th China's support
of Putin and refusal to condemn Hamas
but rebuke Israel instead makes it clear
that has thrown its lot in with a
certain Club um it's a distinct block
that has emerged and that is comprising
China Russia Iran and North
Korea The Economist calls it the quartet
of chaos the Foreign Affairs magazine
calls it the AIS of upheaval but what
are they upheaving um they're upheaving
the old world order whatever you want to call it this
group of Nations has forged closer ties
they Supply weapons to each other and
shared knowhow um and they run influence
campaigns using their closed societies
to hack our open societies after Decades of unfettered
globalization where the US eded the rise
of a geopolitical adversary thinking
erroneous that economic liberalization
of the Chinese economy would lead to
political freedoms we now see the US and
China decoupling at a unprecedented rate
as tariffs are imposed on Imports and
the trade War escalates our mistake was
assuming that markets were a vector for
maximizing Liberty instead it was a
mechanism China exploited to export
their model and culture to our Shores
instead China used Market access to
reshape the world in its own image in my
line of work we are seeing firms de risk
from China reducing their exposure in
various ways from supply chain inputs to
rebalancing their investment portfolios
away from companies that have high
exposure to the Chinese market meanwhile
sanctions on Russia over invasion of
Ukraine have failed to make a dent
Banning the country from the
International Financial system the Swift
system seems only to have spurred Russia
to launch a goal back digital currency
and an alternative crossb payment
system bricks I'm I don't know if you've
heard of this term um it stands for
Brazil Russia India China and South
Africa um and this is a the group of
Emerging Markets which investors a
decade decades ago were was celebrating
um now it's bricks Eau you know with
it's B it's basically expanded like
lgbts expand it to lgbtq plus as fast as
that um and and the formation of this
block makes it very clear that these
nations actually reject the Western Le
post World War II order and want to
build their own Inner Circle of trust as
the world reorganizes into a bipolar
world the world is becoming more and
more unstable the difference between
this cold war and the old one which
animated the 20th century is that this
one is not just between countries it is
within countries our cultural
differences are weaponized such that
foreign policy and geopolitics are
viewed through the lens of uh culture
wars here at home how else do you
explain qu or Palestine these blocks are
not just driven by geopolitics and
economics but now they're being shaped
increasingly by social and moral forces
as well so the clarity of choice in the
previous cold war is is gone here in the
west it is increasingly being cast as a
culture war and just like the last Cold
War the new one will engulf almost every
corner of the world World new culture
war will demand that Nations and tribes
within nations take sides and it rides
on top of geopolitical blocks oriented
around different systems and military
alliances history far from ending is
about to restart once again well great.
