马斯克，中国如何避免世界大战

马斯克，中国如何避免世界大战，中国人有哪些有趣的特点，一针见血！

2025年1月26日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC8UdvFXAcI

你坦诚地谈到了如果不能找到外交解决方案，我们和中国之间长期发生战争的可能性，例如台湾问题和一个中国政策，对吧，我们如何避免这两个超级大国发生冲突的轨迹，嗯，值得一读那本关于难以发音的 Theus trap 的书，我相信它叫我爱战争史，我喜欢内部艺术和倒叙，几乎没有一场战斗我没读过，并试图弄清楚，在任何特定情况下，真正的胜利原因是什么，而不是一方或另一方声称的胜利原因和引发战争的原因，是的，是的，整个事情，是的，所以雅典和斯巴达是经典案例，关于希腊人的事情是他们真的写下了很多东西，他们喜欢写作，嗯，你知道，世界上很多地方都发生过很多有趣的事情，但人们没有写下来，所以我们不知道发生了什么，或者他们没有详细记录，他们只会说，我们打了一场仗，我们赢了，你能再补充一点吗，嗯，希腊人真的写了很多，他们非常善于表达，他们只是喜欢写作，所以我们有很多这样的作品被保存下来，所以我们知道是什么导致了斯巴达人和雅典人之间的皮皮亚战争，联盟嗯，我们知道他们，他们，他们相当预见到了，嗯，我的意思是斯巴达人没有，他们也不是很擅长奥塞，他们的天性就是这样，但他们做得对，但他们不是很擅长，呃，但雅典人和其他希腊人写了一行字，他们就像嗯，斯巴达人是有点像希腊的领导者，但是雅典每年都变得越来越强大，嗯，每个人都觉得雅典和斯巴达之间不可避免地会发生冲突，嗯，我们如何避免这种情况，他们不能，他们不能，他们实际上来了，他们仍然无法避免，所以你知道在某个时候，如果一个文明或国家或任何文明超过另一个文明，就像你知道美国自 1890 年以来一直是最大的孩子一样，从经济角度来看，美国一直是世界上最强大的经济引擎，比任何人活着的时间都长，战争的基础是经济，所以现在我们在中国的情况是，经济可能是美国的两倍甚至三倍，所以想象一下从人们的记忆中，你一直是街区里最大的孩子，突然间，一个孩子出现了，他有你的两倍大，所以我们看到了它的到来，是的，怎么可能停止，有没有让我抛出一些东西，只是文化的融合理解，似乎确实存在着巨大的文化差距，相互理解，你是一个有趣的案例研究，因为你是美国人，显然你在美国做了很多令人难以置信的制造业，但你也与中国合作，我在中国呆了很多时间，并多次会见了领导层，也许一个好问题是，中国有哪些东西是人们不理解的，只是在文化方面，你了解到了什么有趣的事情，嗯，中国真正聪明勤奋的人的数量，真是令人难以置信，你说中国有多少聪明勤奋的人，远不止这些我认为那里的人数比这里多，而且他们有很多精力，所以我的意思是近年来中国的建筑比美国更令人印象深刻，火车站、建筑物、高铁等一切都比美国更令人印象深刻，我建议有人去上海和北京看看这些建筑，然后坐火车从北京到西安，那里有兵马俑，中国有着令人难以置信的历史，非常悠久的历史，我认为可以说从书面语言的角度来看，它是最古老的书面语言之一，也许可能是最古老的书面语言，然后中国人确实把东西写下来了，所以现在中国历史上除了极少数例外一直专注于内部，他们没有很好奇，他们之间发生过很多次内战，在三国战争中，我相信他们损失了大约 70% 的人口，所以他们发生了残酷的内战，比如内战，相比之下，美国内战就显得微不足道了，所以我认为重要的是要认识到中国并不是铁板一块，我们认为中国是一个思想统一的整体，但事实绝非如此。从我所见，我认为大多数了解中国的人都会同意，中国人对中国的思考比他们对中国以外任何事物的思考多 10 倍，所以他们 90% 的考虑都是内部的，当你谈论超级大国之间的合作和未来的和平时，这难道不是一件非常积极的事情吗？当你面向内部时，这就像专注于提高自己，而不是专注于通过军事力量来提高他人。好消息是，中国的历史表明，中国并不好奇，这意味着他们不会出去入侵一大堆国家，嗯，现在他们确实感觉非常强烈，所以这很好，我的意思是，因为很多非常强大的国家都好奇，嗯，美国是其中之一，也是二战后少数不好奇的国家之一II

美国基本上可以接管世界和任何国家，比如我们有核武器，其他国家都没有核武器，我们甚至不必失去士兵，呃你想要哪个国家，MH，美国可以接管一切，哦，随心所欲，但它没有，嗯，美国实际上帮助重建国家，所以帮助重建欧洲，你帮助重建日本，嗯，这是非常不寻常的行为，几乎是史无前例的，嗯，你知道美国做了明显的善举，比如柏林空运，嗯，我想你知道，它总是像美国做了坏事，当然美国做了坏事，但人们需要看看整个记录，嗯，一般来说，你知道一种测试是你如何对待你的战俘，嗯，或者让我们说，嗯，你知道没有冒犯俄罗斯人，但假设你在德国，那是 1945 年，你看到俄罗斯军队从一边过来，你看到法国、英国和美国军队从另一边过来，谁你愿意向哪个国家投降吗

就像没有哪个国家在道德上是完美的

但我建议嗯，与美国人一起成为 PW，这将是我非常强烈地选择在 P 的完整菜单中

所以事实上 V Von Brown 嗯，是的，你知道聪明的家伙呃，就像我们必须被美国人抓获一样

是的，呃事实上，党卫军奉命处决布朗和所有呃德国火箭工程师呃，他们侥幸逃脱了他们的 SSR，他们说他们要出去在树林里散步，他们在冬天中旬离开，没有外套呃，他们跑得像，没有食物，没有外套，没有水，只是拼命地跑，跑向西方呃，而 Sherlock 他们，我想他的兄弟找到了一辆自行车或什么东西，嗯，然后尽可能快地骑车向西，找到了美国巡逻队嗯，所以无论如何，这就是一

这是判断道德的一种方式，就是你想成为 PW，哪里都不好玩，但有些地方比其他地方糟糕得多，所以嗯，无论如何，所以所以所以我认为美国虽然远非完美，但总体上是一支仁慈的力量，嗯，我们应该始终自我批评，努力变得更好，嗯，但嗯，任何有一半正确观点的人都知道这一点，所以我认为中国和美国在这方面是相似的，两个国家都没有以显著的方式进行探究，所以这就像一个共同的原则，我想嗯，现在中国对台湾确实有非常强烈的感觉，他们长期以来一直非常清楚这一点，嗯，你知道从他们的立场来看，它就像其中一个州，你知道，不是像夏威夷或类似的东西，但比夏威夷更重要，你知道嗯，夏威夷对我们来说非常重要，所以嗯，他们认为这是中国的一个基本组成部分，福萨岛不是台湾，它不是中国的一部分，但应该是，唯一没有成为中国一部分的原因是美国太平洋舰队，他们的经济实力在增长，军事实力在增长，他们明确表示，他们的利益是否会实现，是的，中国已经非常清楚，他们将以和平或军事的方式兼并台湾，但从他们的立场来看，他们会兼并台湾是 100% 可能的，你知道你说过，作为一种地缘政治政策，明显的善举几乎看起来很幼稚，但我敢说，这可能是避免大多数战争的前进道路，就像你说的那样，这听起来很幼稚，但如果你相信大多数人性中都潜藏着善良，这听起来很聪明，明显的善举似乎可以在相关国家的民众中产生反响，嗯，绝对缓和，所以第一次世界大战后，他们犯了一个大错误，你知道他们基本上试图把所有的责任都推到德国身上，嗯，嗯，你知道用不可能的赔偿解决了 JY，嗯，你知道真的有很多 BL，第一次世界大战有很多责任，但是他们试着把一切都放在德国，嗯，这就是第二次世界大战的种子，所以很多人，不仅仅是希特勒，很多人都觉得受到了委屈，嗯，他们想要复仇，他们得到了它，人们不会忘记，是的，你杀了别人的父亲、母亲、儿子、女儿，他们不会忘记，他们会想要复仇，嗯，所以二战后，他们就像《维拉伊条约》是第一次世界大战中一个巨大的错误，嗯，所以这一次，我们不是粉碎失败者，而是帮助他们制定军事计划，我们将帮助德国革命，我们将帮助奥地利和意大利等等，所以嗯，这是正确的举动，嗯，确实感觉有一个深刻的真理，呃，这些引人注目的行为作为这种现象的解药，必须有某种东西来阻止这种相互暴力的循环，某种东西会阻止它，否则它就会停止，你知道它会永远不会停止，以眼还眼，以牙还牙，以肢还肢，以命换命，直到永远

马斯克，中国如何避免世界大战，中国人有哪些有趣的特点，一针见血！

2025年1月26日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC8UdvFXAcI

You' spoken honestly about the

possibility of war between us and China

in the long term if no diplomatic

solution is found for example on the

question of Taiwan and one China policy

right how do we avoid the trajectory

where these two superpowers

Clash well it's it's worth reading that

book on the the difficult to pronounce

Theus trap I believe it's called I love

war history I like inside art and

backwards um there's hardly a battle I

haven't read about and and trying to figure out like

what what really was the cause of

victory in any particular case as

opposed to what one side or another

claimed the reason both the Victory and

what sparked the war and yeah yeah the

whole thing yeah so that Athens and

Sparta it's classic case the thing about

the Greeks is they really wrote down a

lot of stuff they loved writing um you

know there lots of interesting things

that happened in many parts of the world

but they people didn't write down so we

don't know what happened or they didn't

really right with in detail they just would say like

we went we had a battle and we won and

like what can you add a bit more um the

the the Greeks they really wrote a

lot they were very articulate on they

just love writing so and we have a bunch

of that writing that's preserved so we

know what led up to the pipian war

between um the spoton and Athenian

Alliance um and uh we we know that they

they they for quite they they saw it

coming mhm I mean the Spartans didn't

right they also weren't very for aose by

their nature but they did right but they

weren't very they were t uh but the the

Athenians and the other Greeks wrote

wrote a line and they were

like um and spot was really kind of like

the leader of of Greece um but but

Athens grew stronger and stronger with

each passing year and um and everyone was like well

that's inevitable that there's going to

be a clash between Athens and

Sparta uh well how do we avoid that and

they couldn't they couldn't they

actually they soed coming and they still

could not avoid it so you know at some point if there's

if if one uh group one civilization or or

country or whatever um exceeds another sort of like if you

know the United States has been the

biggest kid on the Block for since I

think GR 1890 from an economic standpoint so the

United States has been the economic most

powerful economic engine in the world

longer than anyone's been alive um and the foundation of war is

economics so now we have a situation in the case

of china where the um the economy is

likely to be two perhaps three times larger than that

of the US so imagine you're the biggest

kid on the Block for as long as anyone

can remember and suddenly a kid comes

along he's twice your size so we see it coming yeah how is it

possible to stop is there some let me

throw something out there just

intermixing of cultures understanding

there does seem to be a giant cultural

Gap in understanding of each other and

you're an interesting case study because

you are an American obviously you've

done a lot of uh incredible manufactur here in the

United States but you also work with

China I've spent a lot of time in China

and met with the leadership many times

maybe a good question to ask is what are

some things about China that people

don't understand positive just in the

culture what's some interesting things

that you've learned about the

Chinese well uh the the sheer number of

really smart hardworking people in China

is is um incredible uh there are really

you say like how many smart hardworking

people are there in China there's far

more of them there than there are here I

think in my in my opinion

um the uh and they've got a lot of

energy so I mean the architecture in China

that's in recent years is far more

impressive than the US I mean the the

train stations the buildings the

highspeed rail everything it's

um really far more impressive than what

we have in the US I I mean I recommend

somebody just go to Shanghai and

Beijing look at the buildings and go to

you know take the train from Beijing to

Shion where you have the Terracotta

Warriors um China's got incredible

history uh very long history and um you

know I think arguably the in terms of

the use of language from from a written

standpoint um sort of one of one of the

oldest Perhaps Perhaps the oldest

written language and and then China

people did write things down

so um now China um historically has

always been with rare exception been

internally focused um they've not been

inquisitive uh they've theyve fought

each other there been many many Civil

Wars um in the Three Kingdoms War I

believe they lost about 70% of their

population so that so the they've had

brutal internal Wars like civil wars

that make the US Civil War look small by comparison um so I think it's important to appreciate that China is not monolithic um we sort of think of like

China is a sort of one entity of one

mind and this is definitely not the case

um from what I've seen and I think most

people who understand China would agree

people in China think about China 10

times more than they think about

anything outside of China so it's like

90% of their consideration is uh you

know are is is internal well isn't that

a really positive thing when you're

talking about the collaboration and a

future peace between superpowers when

you're inward facing which is like

focusing on improving yourself versus

focusing on yeah uh quote unquote

improving others through military might

the good news the history of China

suggests that China is not inquisitive

meaning they're not going to go out and

invade a whole bunch of countries um now

they do feel very strongly you know so

that's that's good I mean because a lot

of lot of very powerful countries have

been inquisitive um the US is one of the

also one of the rare cases that has not

been inquisitive like after World War II

the us could have basically taking over

the world and any country like we got

nukes nobody else got nukes we don't

even have to lose soldiers uh which country do you want MH

and the United States could have taken

over everything oh at will and it didn't

um the United States actually helped

rebuil countries so helped rebuild

Europe you it helped rebuild Japan um

this is very unusual behavior almost

unprecedented um you know the US did conspicuous acts

of kindness like the Berlin

airlift you know um and and I think you know it's always

like well America's done bad things well

of course America's done bad things but

one needs to look at the the whole track

record um and and just generally you know one one sort of test

would be how do you treat your prisoners

of War mhm or let's say um you know no offense to the Russians but

let's say you're in Germany it's 1945

you got the Russian army coming on one

side you got the French British and

American armies coming to the other side

who would you like to be to surrender to

like no country is like morally perfect

but I recommend um being a PW with the

Americans that would be my choice very

strongly in the full menu of P very much

so and in fact V Von Brown um yeah took you

know smart guy uh was like we've got to

be captured by the Americans

yeah and uh in fact the SS was under

orders to execute bar Brown and all of

the uh German rocket Engineers uh and

they narrowly escaped their SSR they

said they were going out for a walk in

the woods they left in the middle of

winter with no coats uh and they ran

like like and with no food no coat no

water and just ran like hell uh and ran

West um and by Sherlock they I think his

brother found like a a bicycle or

something and um and then just cycled

West as fast as he could and found found

a US Patrol um so anyway that's that's one

that's one way you can tell morality is who who where do you

want to be a PW it's not fun anywhere but some places

are much worse than others so um anyway so so so I think America has

been uh while far from perfect uh

generally a benevolent Force um and uh

we should always be self-critical and uh

try to be better um but um anyone with

half right knows that so so I think

there are in this way China and uh the

United States are similar NE neither

country has been inquisitive um in a significant way so that's like a

you know a shared principle I guess um

now now China does feel very strongly

about Taiwan they've been very clear about

that for a long time um you know from

their standpoint it's it's it would be

like one of the states is is is you know

not there like like Hawaii or something

like that but but more significant than

Hawaii you know um and Hawai is pretty significant for

us so um they view it as as as really

the there's a fundamental part of

China the island of fosa not not Taiwan

that is um not part of China but should

be uh and the only reason it hasn't been

is because of the US Pacific

Fleet and is there economic power grows

and is there military power

grows the thing that they are clearly

saying uh is their interest will you know

clearly be materialized yes China has been very clear that um

they will incorporate Taiwan uh

peacefully or uh militarily but that

they will incorporate it from their

standpoint is 100% likely you know something you said about

conspicuous acts of kindness as a

geopolitical policy it almost seems

naive but I'd venture to say that this is

probably the path forward how you avoid

most wars just as you say it it sounds

naive but it's kind of brilliant if you believe in the goodness

of underlying most of human nature it

just seems like conspicuous acts of

kindness can uh reverberate through the

populace of the countries involved

yeah well and deescalate absolutely so

after World War I the the they made a

big mistake you know they basically

tried to lump all the blame on Germany

um and um and and you know settled JY with uh

impossible reparations um and you know really there was a lot

of BL there was a fair quite a bit of

blame to um go around for World War I um

but they they try to you know put it all

in Germany um and uh that was that that laid the

seeds for World War II uh so a lot of people well not just Hitler

a lot of people felt wronged um

and they wanted Vengeance and they got it people don't

forget yeah you you kill somebody's father mother son daughter

they're not going to forget it they will

want Vengeance um so after World War II

they're like well the Treaty of verai

was a huge mistake um in World War

one and um so this time instead

of uh you know crushing the losers we're

we're actually going to help them with

the martiall plan and we're going to help R Revol Germany

we're going to help rol or you know

Austria and the other you know Italy and

whatnot so um that was the right move there is uh

it does feel like there's a profound

truth to uh the conspicuous acts of kind

as being an antidote to this something must stop the the cycle

of reciprocal violence something will stop it or it will you

know it'll it'll it'll never stop

just eye for an eye tooth for a tooth

limb for a limb life for a life forever

and ever